So, hope you had a nice Republic day. You woke up early, saluted the flag, stood in attention while the national anthem played.You might have missed an interesting piece of news. The latest version of the Goldman Sachs BRICs report projects that by year 2050, India's GDP will surpass that of the United States.
The original report (pdf) came out in 2003 and made quite a stir in its bold projections of the future. Since then Goldman Sachs has been steadily revising its estimates about India's growth potential upwards. The latest report doesn't appear to be publicly available but the original document contains most of the ideas.
Interestingly, one of the authors of the original report, Roopa Purushothaman (inset), has decided to make a bold bet on her own predictions. This young Indian American economist has moved to India and apprently her fiance will soon too. She joined Biyani's retail group as an economist.
Quite obviously this sort of growth can not come from a repressed socialist regime. The report lays out a series of ifs and buts. Since the report is small, I urge you to go through it. Here is a small passage:
A set of core factors - macroeconomic stability, institutional capacity, openness and education - can set the stage for growth. Robert Barro’s influential work on the determinants of growth found that growth is enhanced by higher schooling and life expectancy, lower fertility, lower government consumption, better maintenance of the rule of law, lower inflation and improvements in the terms of trade. These core policies are linked: institutional capacity is required to implement stable macroeconomic policies, macro stability is crucial to trade, and without price stability a country rarely has much success in liberalizing and expanding trade.Coming from the world's most powerful investment bank, the report is not just some pot hazed dream. This is a realizable future. Of course, the immediate questions would be, what about the population? As a matter of fact, population growth in India has been declining. All projections that I saw places the 2050 population between 1.4 and 1.8 billions.
At that level of GDP, poverty should be eliminated. Indeed this growth can not come unless all or most of the population is engaged in productive work.
9 comments:
Barb
Is not it charming, delightful and fashionable to mouth the name "India".
a)I nurture, do not know why, concern about Ms Roopa's move from a professionally managed "Global Financier-Investor-Consultant big boy" to Biyani's...(Baniya culture!)...let's sit n watch. How long this romance could be sustained? Ye, am a bit skeptical about moves!
b)I gleam over the healthy projections. this can be achieved only when the "Deprived" and "Aspirers" join forces with the ever-bulging middle class, the gripping tale of Indian economy and the centre of gravity..that leads us to
-more focus on primary education, ensuring that a majority of the population (especially the dwellers in the hinterlands, thanks to corporate giants like ITC-e choupal , IT giants Intel, who are coming out their “frog-in-well” kind of existence and facing the big world)
get workable education. Education is a must! N what a tranquilizer!
c)well, the bigger factor is "change in the minds, people's changing attitude towards life, it's that old concept of fatalistic view but let me empower self with education and make the world a smaller playground to play around. the change is happening in our minds, which is a welcoming aspect.Governments come n they go, the commoner,if he stays brighter n optimistic, the nation may leap more fortified n eager than the predictions
d)The “Swadesh” brigade would be much bigger in the days to come, "coming back home" would be a trend, MNCs would set up their manufacturing facilities in India, agricultutal DNA of the country would get disturbed further, retail big boys Walmart, Tesco, Sainsbury etc come to India to open their galleries, more Indians are out there to splurge, forget that tight grip on strings. Youth and youthful display well toned bodies nestled in iconic tags like Tommy, Gap, Levis, Diesel etc etc. would H&M, Zara come to India? Would think about that later.
But has anyone thought of addressing “consumers shopping fatigue”? no, start thinking about it and develop product range / services for that. One tiny a clue : shopping malls are no longer entertainment zones, but therapeutic centers. Watching humans milling around makes lonely souls better, URBAN LONELINESS is acquiring its solution in Third Spaces
e) Other core factors : lower government consumption, better maintenance of the rule of law…broadly the indicators are up there around the corner. Corruption and Procrastination are going to be the biggest challengers for the corporate world. Face it and battle it
e) Higher life expectancy….that means higher ageing population, lesser young & workable population when the clock stands at 2050…would not India then be like the ageing countries of this era?
...strictly my rambling
have the financial analysts and economists factored in growing presence of terrorism, racism and other humoid attributes in the world?...have they considered disturbing developments in the environment around us? do they really think the world would survive till 2050?
gosh, what happened to me? I should stop watching Fassbinder
last bit...
if India sustains its efforts on "strong economic culture", "Indian ethos and values" and "multi-faceted religion tapestry",the world comes its feet. The nation need not crave the world's acceptance...
Barb,
Do you really think anyone is looking at the histogram ?
RC
Jyo,
predictions are just that, predictions.
RC,
Good point :)
RC,, LOLzz.. I noted the histogram after reading this comment.
Barbarindian,
BTW, I am rather sceptical about this whole thing.
First of all, India will not be a secular nation by 2050. It will be a rabid Islamic country, providing cannon fodder to the global jehad (the way things are currently going). Probably nuclear too.
Secondly, that report was made in 2003. Now the growth rates have slowed, inflation is back to its Indira Gandhi days behaviour, and socialists are determined to bring equality (not by improving the lot of the poor, but by looting anyone who is above the poverty level).
Third, infrastructure development is down to the pre-1990 days. No infrastructure, no economy.
> First of all, India will not be a secular nation by 2050.
> Secondly, that report was made in 2003. Now the
> growth rates have slowed, inflation is back to its
> Indira Gandhi days behaviour, and socialists are
> determined to bring equality
> Third, infrastructure development is down to
> the pre-1990 days.
and they say the leftists are the pessimists. this nut makes them look like sunny -side-up happiness vendors!
sure shadows, everything has gone to hell. just ask, for e.g., the guys buying phones in the worlds' fastest growing and cheapest mobile markt.
sure shadows, everything has gone to hell. just ask, for e.g., the guys buying phones in the worlds' fastest growing and cheapest mobile markt.
=============
Is that the only upside that you can cite ??
BTW, the mobile market was booming right from 2003 onwards. (Reliance entered in 2003 beginning, shaking up the telecom scenario.)
Hadnt it been for the Leftists, the mobile market growth would have been even faster.
Also proves that Leftists are not ashamed to take credit for something they have not done, have no contribution in, and in fact, hamper.
For once, post something when you are aware of facts.
I was one of those who did not even see the histogram until it was mentioned in this comment section. All I have to ask is, why a Rican????? That is so unfair.
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