Cognitive Dissonance

So, what is a "normal" election?

Rajdeep Sardesai: I think this election at the end of the day is not about how much development he has done or how much of a Hindutva hero is he. This is a normal election being fought on local factors - on caste, on local satraps asserting themselves - and that's where this is become a closely contested election .. much more tightly contested election being faught on local factors. Modi has tried to make it about himself, but deep down, normal politics is returning to Gujarat. [link] [Transcript ours]

Perhaps Mr. Sardesai had "typical" on his mind. A sad day for a democracy when the definition of a "normal" election evokes such concepts in the mind of a senior journalist of a leading news channel.

CNN-IBN hosted at a minimum of a dozen special shows, including one which featured none other than Prof. Bandukwalla. Yes, the same dude who was supposed to have been brutally killed according to the Tehelka scam. The Professor said that the carnage of 2002 will never be forgotten, not in a 100 years. Well, could we please stretch it to about a thousand years maybe?

They also conducted exit polls with the help of CSDS and had them analyzed by Yogendra Yadav. Mr. Yadav should be well advised to separate his professional opinion as a leading psephologist from his person opinions, hopes and fears. No one (except God perhaps) can be 100% certain about electoral outcomes. But to harp on that point endlessly means inviting scrutiny on his expertise in designing surveys. If there were known biases, they could have been factored in. He may privately wish for Modi's demise, but if he appears to lack confidence in his own surveys, he will lose credibility over time.

Whatever the outcome, the dice has rolled for the time being. We expected much better and objective electoral analysis from a leading channel.

Low turnout:

In the 2002 elections, central Gujarat clearly emerged as a BJP bastion but the challenge for the party is to maintain the same lead in the 2007 polls. But the low voter turnout in urban areas is making the BJP nervous and this could turn the tables for the saffron party. [link]

High turnout:

Polling increased in the second and final phase of Gujarat elections on Sunday and was between 62-64%, up from 59% in round one. Compared to 2002 polling figures, the turnout this time is higher in the urban areas and lower in rural ones. [link]

You can imagine the intrigue if Modi does not win by a comfortable margin (say, around 110 seats). Gujarat will rapidly devolve into a Goa or a Karnataka.