The mis-argumentative Indian

In India, debates are settled by repetitively shouting straw man arguments. The side that shouts the loudest, wins. So, what was the Nuclear Deal about? India's energy needs you say? Well, can't find that in any newspaper reports. Let's look at some of the ideas put forward in support of the deal:

We need Nuclear Power:

No, we don't. We need electrical power, not specifically from Nuclear reactors. Unless we get it real cheap and without hassles. What we have here is not cheap, and not likely to become a significant source of energy in the next decade or so, despite the "deal". Let's not even talk about the hassles yet.

We need Electrical Power:

No we don't. We need to develop resources we can trade in exchange for power. If we are good at producing Rutabagas, let's make lots of Rutabagas and sell it to Bangladesh. Then we use the money to buy thermal power from grids off Pakistan or Hydro power from Nepal. Flippancy aside, even during the rare moments India Inc. actually thinks "reforms", we have a way to completely distort it still it stops making economic sense.

This is a pertinent point rendered a straw man argument by the after-deal fiasco. As we see it, reforming the conventional power sector, meaning which keeping Sibu Soren type of politicians away from the coal ministry and allowing more privatization will have a much bigger impact than Nuclear power. In fact given that only about 10% of projected installed capacity of 300,000 MW (Kalam estimate: 400,000) in year 2020 will come from Nuclear reactors, we must reform the energy sector in general and not get entangled into the kind of wild goose chase which kept the Government from functioning normally for almost 2 years of its tenure.

Oil is becoming expensive:

Oil is not used to make electricity in India. Next?

Actually, coal and gas are becoming more expensive too but so will nuclear fuel. Plus oil has become a victim of gravity lately anyway.

This is our last chance:

Just because Congress has a few months to go, doesn't mean we need rush into something this important. To paraphrase H.D. Kumaraswamy, in international politics there is no end. Countries are observed for macro level behavior. No one would remember we backed out of this deal. But if we test a small device in Pokhran desert, the liberal crowd in West Europe will sulk for decades now. Actually, there is a case for holding off this deal because in a decade or so we may get a front door entry into the Nuclear club and not a back door entry which we are attempting now.

President Kalam likes the deal:

This has little value other than say celebrity endorsement for soaps and detergents. Kalam is a technological man. Men like toys. Besides, Kalam's take on the deal is something very different. Here is CNN-IBN transcript and here is the TOI transcript for the recent Kalam interview. Watch the interview, the man has a completely odd perspective on the testing issue.

Kalawati wants Nuclear Power:

Well, Kalawati wants food, shelter and education for her children first. This would be the classic socialist argument, so it can be turned on its head. Assuming Kalawati does get prosperous and able to afford electricity, in year 2020 only about 10% of her electric will come from Nuclear reactors.

Nuclear Power is high-tech:

That is the basic problem, Nuclear Power has a sex appeal that titillates the middle class crowd. Admittedly, Nuclear science is at the most cutting age of science. But we are already doing some good Nuke stuff. We can still do those things and more.

India's Nuclear isolation (apartheid) will end:

Surely this is a subliminal appeal to the automatic revulsion Indians feel towards the caste system but has nothing to do with the original objective (Electricity, remember?). It is being implied that unless we do this deal, our development in all fronts, not just Nuclear Power, will be impacted. The Nuclear "isolation" only limited to a narrow range of technologies.

Our technological development is actually constrained by our own domestic laws more than any international restriction. Even the Nuke power thing will require repealing domestic restrictions on private investment. Funny thing is, the Pundits who are vociferously batting for ending "isolation" supported our dreadful anti-development Nehruvian regime for decades. Just read some of the editorials when the NDA Government was attempting to reduce our "trade isolation".

The Nuclear deal is complex and hence ordinary people won't understand it

Actually much of India's problems are a result of intellectual overload. Perhaps we need a cultural revolution. Right about now the Nuclear Deal is being hailed in exactly those terms the giant public sector follies were hailed during the Nehruvian days of socialism.

BJP also wanted this deal:

And that makes it a good deal? A pure conjecture and hence a straw man argument. In any case, the fact that BJP had something to do with this is being purged from history as we speak, after the King Singh's great "victory". The TOI timeline here, CNN-IBN timeline here. Do you see a mention of BJP?

BJP would have signed it under much less favorable terms:

See above.

It turns out that Congress also signed it under much less favorable terms! Pranab Mukherjee made a grand speech and they simply appended it to the waiver text. We should really keep politicians out of diplomatic matters - they simply do not know the difference between when they are speaking to Kalawati in an election rally and when they are speaking to the top hawks in the world.

US internal memos will not impact international agreements:

This is confusing cause and effect or rather precedence and antecedence. We could explain it but too tired right now.

Hey, does anyone still remember the original objective?

We do not need to test in the near future:

Singhvi said in a CNN-IBN show that we tested only twice, we may not test again in 20 years. Kapil Sibal also said the same thing. This is quite a departure from what they were saying before they went to IAEA. From their bravura stance of "we shall not make any compromise" they are now down to hope and prayers. Well, good luck, fellas.

Reactors are dying:

Well, after the deal, there will be a lot more reactors at the risk of death.

Muslims have no objection to the deal:

Seriously, our national policy must be endorsed by them. That is the most important thing.

Bloggers support the deal:

Well, yeah, sure.

How big a deal is Nuclear Power?

This is the latest report on what industry stalwarts estimate will be the business opportunities opened up by the Nuclear Deal:

An overwhelming 85 percent of the 300 chief executives polled held the view that modifications to India's Atomic Energy Act of 1962 could help the country to generate some 20,000 MWe (unit of nuclear power) by 2020.

[...]

The act [India's Atomic Energy Act of 1962: India's domestic act restricting Nuclear power generation to the Government] and the decades of India's nuclear isolation had resulted in capping the country's nuclear power generation capacities to an extent of just 3,900 MWe in over 60 years of independence.

As a result, out of a total installed generation capacity of about 145,000 MW of electricity, 70 [percent] is accounted for through thermal [coal and gas] fuel and 20 percent by hydro, with nuclear energy contributing to just two percent.

The remaining capacities come by tapping the various sources of non-conventional energy such as solar, wind, biomass and tidal waves. [emphasis added]

Let's walk through this.

In year 2008, the total installed capacity of Nuclear Power is 3,900 MW out of a total of 145,000 MW, i.e. 2.7%

Assume that our total installed capacity doubles to about 300,000 MW by year 2020. This is about 7% annual growth. It could be more.

Industry experts estimate our Nuclear capacity could go up to 20,000 MW in year 2020. This is about 5 huge plants generating up to 4,000 MW each, costing $15 Billion or more each. This will be just about 7% of our total installed capacity for electricity generation. Let's round it up to 10%, assuming even more aggressive capacity building than the industry pundits are estimating.

So, in essence the Nuclear deal will allow us to achieve just 10% of total installed generation capacity through Nuclear technologies by year 2020. This will be at a higher cost compared to conventional energy sources which will be inevitably heavily subsidized and the cost ultimately passed on to the taxpayer.

Admittedly there are fringe benefits - environmental, Indian companies may become suppliers of components etc. but there are things we will lose out on. There is the element of long tailed risk (Chernobyl etc.), land acquisition issues and the minor matter of sacrificing potential Thorium based solutions (provided we do not blow up our Thorium reserves along with the Ram Setu by then), pushing our domestic producers away from developing other technologies (Wind, Solar and Sea waves and indeed more efficient and cleaner thermal solutions).

This helps us to put into perspective the debate about sacrificing national security. A lot more on that later.

[Update]

The Business Standard confirms the projections. Also, this is how Dawn, Pakistan's leading English paper reports it:

For global nuclear energy companies, the decision opens the door to an atomic reactor market worth billions of dollars with India aiming to double its share of nuclear power to five to seven percent by 2030.

The Confederation of Indian Industry forecast business opportunities worth around 30 billion dollars over the next 15 years with India needing about 18 to 20 more nuclear reactors. It now has 22 reactors. [emphasis added]

Indian newspapers are maintaining a radio silence on this statistic. We are reading frothy editorials, poetic flourishes, self-congratulatory pats all around.

An unknown unknown

So, India got the NSG waiver! Singh is now the King of the World! Let's air drop leaflets of the NSG Draft text in the flood affected areas.

We would have gone through the NSG phase without much fuss, except for the explosive leak of a "secret letter". Until that happened, questioning the N-Deal would make you a pariah. But a funny thing happened, a secret letter was "leaked" and the ensuing confusion proved beyond doubt that no "intellectual" in India had really done a thorough job of thinking through the whole thing. Needless to say there will be lots of new interpretations and angles to cover this up, but let's not kid ourselves.

The TOI screencap, taken just after the expose, amply demonstrates this as does this NDTV show. We especially like the screencap, it completely summarizes the serious problems we can potentially run into - yeah, China, land acquisition, environmental protests. It shows utter chaos and confusion amid the TOI editorial staff. Extremely alarmed that this can cause serious trouble to their beloved party, they immediately put up that headline blaming Bush. That explains all the troubles in the world these days, doesn't it? Curiously though, this was the guy who pushed for the N-Deal in the first place. Are we missing something here? Some people have claimed that the leak itself was a ploy to allay the fears of NSG members. This is too cynical and conspiratorial a view of the world.

The economic implications of the deal has been conspicuous by its absence in all the debates on the issue. Nuclear power is simply not economical, unless you assign an arbitrary high value to environmental impacts. Refer to this MIT study and this WSJ article. Even the breaking news on yahoo says this:

Rood said it would help meet India's growing energy needs while helping the developing country — a major polluter — cut back on harmful emissions that experts warn are contributing to global warming.

It is not clear if the US or Western nations will subsidize the high costs of Nuclear Power plants by extending the carbon credit logic.

People like the deal for different reasons. We have essentially adopted a head in the sand approach for getting something of arbitrary value proposition in exchange for unknown handicaps on our strategic programs.

[Update]

Every American expert we heard so far on CNN-IBN or NDTV are saying "clean energy". No one has said anything about "economical energy". For instance this CNN-IBN segment.

(to be continued ......)

Assam floods, Maggi 2-minute noodles and a humble proposal

Sad news from the North East, Assam is looking at a very grim flood situation. Though not nearly as bad as Bihar, the situation is bad enough. It does not help that resources are stretched thin across several troubled zones: Orissa, Bihar and now Assam.

We appeal to media and bloggers to not politicize the floods. Much damage has been done already and we are as guilty as any other. But then again, it is a moot point. The flood in Assam means they will dramatically reduce flood coverage.

Amid all this hopelessness, a curious piece of news came to our notice. The Health Ministry has decided to distribute Maggi 2-Minute Noodle packages. True to his style, Dr. Ramadoss has done something no one would normally think of. This is a brilliant move. Thank you, Doctor.

Here is why. Perhaps the key to fixing all our PDS mess lies in this. Think about the fundamental issue of PDS - that of pilferage of food grains. Just like any other socialistic scheme, the goods do not reach the intended recipients (Rajiv Gandhi estimate: 15%, Rahul Gandhi estimate: 5%). Some people have suggested reforming the PDS by introducing vouchers. But this will not be adequate to fix the leakage issue. As long as the food distributed by PDS has an open market value, it will be looted.

If the PDS really has a social function, it is to ensure that food reaches the most needy, starving people. The Government should replace normal food distribution and introduce a substitute packaged food that is not very appealing, at a nominal price. Call it Denatured Nutrition Program. The direct impact of this will be that no one will pilfer food that has no open market value. Only people facing hunger will buy this food.

Perhaps this is as silly an idea as any other, but no sillier than the idea of PDS in the first place.

Coming up ....

RAW DEAL:

How the 'secular' establishment made a chootia out of Indians


Previous Posts:

July 28, 2007: The Nuke Deal: An open RTI petition: Questions an ordinary citizen must ask
August 04, 2007: Roaches: What about the 'liberal' nations?
March 08, 2008: A bad melodrama: Sign of things to come
July 22, 2008: Not convinced about nuclear power: It's the economics, stupid

Note: In case you find a certain word in this post offensive (we are pretty certain some seculars will pretend to be extremely hurt, 'oh! these abusive bloggers!'), we point you to this short story by Khushwant Singh.

Election

NEW DELHI: St Stephen's College on Wednesday elected a Kashmiri boy to the post of president for its Students' Union Society. Adnan Nayeem Asmi, a third year student of the BA (Pass) course, defeated his only rival Maryam Fatima of third year BA English (Honours) by a margin of 122 votes to become president. [...]

The new president hails from Srinagar district in Kashmir. He completed his schooling from Tyndale Biscoe School where he scored 85% in his class X and XII boards. His father, Fiaz A Asmi, is a manager with State Bank of India in Srinagar. After his boards, Asmi came to Delhi and joined St Stephen's to pursue his under graduation in humanities. Since then he has been an active member of the Students Union of the college. [link]

Looks like St. Stephen's is a fine secular establishment. Although it's a shame that it was a Hillary vs. Barack type of situation. Guess you can't have everything.

The point is, the Government should have jumped at this great opportunity for propaganda. In fact our media should have assumed a proactive role and at least made it into a nice little TV show for the consumption of the undecideds in Kashmir. It would also help neutralize Pakistani propaganda.

Oh, wait, this is our secular media we are talking about. Never mind.

A "rare" but heartening sight

The Kosi may have changed its course killing and displacing many in Bihar, but the river has also 'sank' religious differences as evident in relief camps where RSS men were seen serving food to Muslims. Clad in khaki shorts and caps, RSS men are serving gram and flattened rice to Muslim flood victims in a relief camp at Saharsa. The camp being run by 'Seva Bharti', a Sangh Parivar outfit, at the zila school campus at Saharsa presents a rare but heartening sight where the devastating deluge of Kosi has sunk bitterness and differences.

"Over a 100 people of my community are taking shelter here for more than a week now and we have absolutely no complaint. Life cannot be better than this in a relief shelter," says Mohammed Salauddin, who fled Parba village in Madhepura district along with his family to escape the flood fury. [link] [emphasis added]

Power of spin - a single word changes everything.

People are strange, when you are .....

Hate in C Minor

Caption not too far off the mark: John Dayal makes a
menacing gesture towards BJP leader B. P. Singhal

On an NDTV discussion, MIM MP Asaduddin Owaisi asked a very pertinent question. He asked what if Haywood was Hamid? Would the Indian Police let him get away so easily? Thank you Mr. Owaisi. These are good questions to ask. After Haywood left, it was discovered that he was in India on a fraudulent visa (he had definitely lied about his purpose of visit).

Interesting things happened on the CNN-IBN show (from which the above screen cap was taken). This was a show on religious issues and true to form, myths flowed freely. They also got mercilessly shattered.

Apparently Minister of State Prakash Jaiswal had claimed that he was not allowed to go to the troubled site. Many newspapers including the Outlook are spreading this canard. Well, it turned out that he did not go to Kandhamal because of bad weather.

John Dayal claimed that "It is very difficult to become a Christian. If you're a Dalit, you lose your job and scholarship." This is less than half the truth. None of the conversions in Kandhamal were done legally, meaning which the collector was not notified. In many instances they still continue to claim these benefits. Also, this applies only for SCs. Secondly, although they may have to forsake benefits under SC quotas, they become eligible for minority institution quotas (St. Stephens)! There are other fringe benefits, check out the AP roster of recent GO orders and legislations. One mustn't forget that there is also the OBC quota to consider. So, Mr. Dayal's attempt at this inane spin miserably falls through.

The show did not go very well for Rajdeep Sardesai. Two persons who shone were BJD MP Tathagata Satpathy and Renuka Narayanan, editor of HT. Readers may recall that Satpathy was the only MP who spoke against the OBC reservation bill. Not only does the man speak well, he cuts through BS like hot knife through butter. No friend of Hindus or BJP, Renuka Narayanan refused to toe the party line. She told off John Dayal in no uncertain terms.

Now let's get back to the two more pertinent issues:

The first is the issue of Christian terrorism and violence. This is a serious issue that must be addressed immediately. Part of the problem is that the community has managed to stay out of radar and as a result has become infested with hardcore communal fundamentalists. Minority status does not automatically grant secular credentials. It is clear that rent seeking behavior has crept into the community. Nefarious activities like the Haywood case are taking place. Now they are openly threatening to form private militia. Wherever there is numerical superiority, such as Kerala etc., they cause distress to others. It is not that they are making much social progress either: in fact it seems like they have boarded a train back to the middle ages. The hushed up sex scandals in Kerala, religious indignation over movies etc. stands testimony to this observation. Most alarmingly, the self-styled seculars of this community have maintained a wall of silence about the problems within the community, while constantly highlighting problems of other religions. In any case, it is like, their problem, so we are not much concerned.

The second issue is of course that of religious conversion and its place in the LDR (Liberal Democratic Republic). If you are confused about the issue, it will only take a few seconds to realize that conversions are immoral by definition from a secular standpoint. You can not claim to respect all religions and then turn around and support conversions, especially the Industrial scale expedient variety that is happening in India. A post by Offstumped though somewhat frivolous in tone, explains this. We would argue that religious solicitation is even worse than sexual harassment.

There is no such thing as voluntary conversion. The exceptions are so few that they are statistical errors or special cases (formation of a new religion or cult, mass scale political conversion etc.). Most conversions are done under duress or inducement. The Swami was killed because he was shattering this myth on a day to day basis for all to see.

As far as its place in the LDR is concerned, we believe any attempt at changing the demographics, especially at this aggressive scale using foreign funds, is downright illegal. Simply because it breaks down the original socio-political contract people agreed to when they joined the LDR. It is downright silly to expect people to not react to it. Who will guarantee that the whole thing will not turn very violent? Certainly historical precedence and current behavior of the community does not inspire any amount of confidence. What is happening now is akin to ethnic cleansing. It is merely a slow form of invasion by foreign forces.

The United Nations does not have anything specific to say about religious conversions. It simply can not when the practice is illegal in most of its client states. So next time John Dayal runs to the UN screaming bloody discrimination, he may want to ponder this a little. In fact India should approach the UN for setting ground rules for conversions. Nations with homogeneous populations are advised to stay off this debate. It is not your goddamn problem.

A final word about the peace protests and rallies:

There is a buzz on the internet that reluctant students were made to march in peace protests and rallies. The reluctant part is unverifiable but quite plausible. Very few parents regardless of religion will let their precious little snowflakes go anywhere near political rallies. This is outrageous and utterly despicable. Using children for propaganda or warfare is nothing new, The Palestinians do it all the time. At least they use their own children.

Flood and politics

When it rained in Bombay during the NDA regime and the streets got flooded, it was Vajpayeeji's fault. Until then the Bombay street floods were a natural occurrence, as they were in the past few years. So stop bitching. Think of the bright side - your kids can float paper boats.

The river Kosi is called the "river of grief" in school Geography texts. This fact was hammered into our heads in no uncertain terms. Devastating floods during the Congress rule of early decades and Laloo rules in later decades were either ignored or reported with religious fervor. Add to it the complete inability of a socialist regime with little resources to deal with natural disasters.

This year, Bihar experienced extreme floods and our friendly neighbors, the Nepal Maoists may have had something to do with it. Reportedly they did not allow Engineers from Bihar inside Nepalese territory to repair the dams. They also released water in a suspicious manner. This needs to be investigated.

Now, India may not have the institutions at place yet but plenty of money to throw at problems. The PM's generous grant of Rs. 1000 crores (a thousand crore has become the minimum denomination of doles) smacks of opportunism, given that historically Bihar has received scant little assistance from the center.

The media is doing its bit to rub CM Nitish Kumar's nose on the ground. Extreme coverage of private efforts at flood relief is aimed at proving that the Government is doing nothing. Laloo Prasad is getting ten times more face time on TV. He has announced free train services which is counter intuitive. Trains are not running in flood affected areas. So in essence this measure will give local goons a free license to terrorize legit passengers.

There was a footage splashed across TV channels involving Laloo Prasad Yadav that will go down in history as the most depraved display of opportunistic politics, aside from being utterly tasteless. Here is a rough screenplay:

[Laloo addressing a rally]
Laloo: Sarkar jo karegi so karegi par hum apne party ke taraf se, RJD ke taraf se yeh karenge (whatever the Government does, we will do it on our own, from our own party).

[Flood affected area. Partial shot of a sports utility vehicle front passenger side. Laloo is on the passenger seat. TV crews and flood victims loitering about].

Laloo: Bolo, TV camera par Bolo, sarkar ne kuch nahin kiya. (Say it, say it to the TV cameras, the Government hasn't done anything).

People [off screen]. Kuch nahin kiya, Sarkar ne kuch nahin kiya. (Didn't do anything, the Government didn't do anything).

Laloo [hands out a currency note, taken by a man not seen]: Bolo, Laloo Prasad Zindabad. (Say - long live Laloo Prasad).

Crowd: Laloo Prasad Zindabad. (Long love Laloo Prasad).

[Camera zooms into the vehicle, Laloo in focus. Laloo is handed a small baby, Laloo brings the baby into the vehicle.]

Laloo [speaking to the kid]: Bolo, Laloo Prasad Zindabad. (Say, long live Laloo Prasad)

[Laloo holds the baby up, then puts him on his lap, coos the baby a little, then holds him close to his face, touching his forehead affectionately to the child's forehead. Then he places a currency note on the child]

Laloo: Bolo Laloo Prasad Zindabad (say, long live Laloo Prasad).

Missing the forest for the trees

"Innocent middle-class" citizen Shoma Chaudhury with Ram Jethmalani

Perhaps Tehelka is getting some heat for their SIMI clean chit project. We don't know. But they reacted just like they did after the Gujarat fake sting - they let the choir gal out.

Shoma Chaudhury writes:

As privileged middle-class Indians, as a rule we mostly live in cocoons of well-being. This makes us dangerously innocent. We believe the world is a straight place.

Awwwww, Shomaji, you don't say. You are no ordinary middle-class citizen. Journalists seldom are. After all which other ordinary middle-class Indians get to hobnob with senior Congress leaders and ministers? Sad to learn that her political cherry popped only about seven years ago.

The point is, we find it hard to believe she wrote this article with a straight face. More likely she was bursting into peels of laughter while penning this. This sort of defense is put up in elementary schools.

In case after case, issue after issue, the Tehelka people claim to be "innocent". Innocent of what? Their innocence is broken when they discover a "terrifying", "disturbing", "frightening", "dark" secret. And all this is happening way after they attained adulthood. They must have been really clueless!

The second common theme can be best described as persecution complex. For a magazine with insignificant subscriptions, they have not only survived, but spread their tentacles deeper and wider. It is a racket. Recently we noticed CEOs writing funny columns and coincidentally ads of those companies were appearing on the same issues. What is this? "Advertisement for article" scheme?

In this environment, Shoma Chadhuri's claims of being "innocent" and "clueless" about the dark world of intrigue yonder is quite untenable.

TEHELKA holds no brief for SIMI. (Or any other organisation.)

This statement from Tehelka invites scrutiny not just for what it means but for the sheer number of times it is repeated. Will Tehelka's office boy believe it?

Shoma Chaudhuri goes on to claim that they pretty casually decided to investigate SIMI. Someone said "Yeh SIMI wala chakkar kya hai?" and they did the project. Maybe so, but the fact is they did not investigate SIMI. They already had a conclusion. They merely conducted interviews (only SIMI members) and filled in the gaps. This is neither investigation, nor journalism. This is propaganda.

There are complex and sophisticated arguments that SIMI intellectuals put forward to back their stances. “Why don't people want to have a dialogue and hear out our views instead of jailing us?” says one SIMI activist.

There is nothing sophisticated or particularly complex about SIMI's arguments. These are savages with medieval mentality. Tehelka's sanctimonious self-defense can not blind us to the fact that they have gone so far batting for a certain type of politics that they are now forced to cheer for an ideology which does not even recognize the values Tehelka claims to stand for.

Project Tiramisu

Sometimes it is the little things that matter. At a time when the flood situation in Bihar (thanks Prachanda) is getting grimmer by the day and the MSM is maintaining a complete blackout on the Nuclear deal (India is slowly but surely bartering away its National Interest for the sake of cronies) - the logo change for the Kendriya Vidyalaya schools may not seem very significant.

The logo had been around for decades. It is implausible that the idea struck the HRD ministry all of a sudden. The actual reason is very simple - a group of very resolute individuals have embarked upon a mission of cleansing. Unless you go out hunting for Saffron with loads of resources, it is rather difficult to spot the innocuous Lotus flower in that logo.

Funny that the world seems to have settled on the "Liberal Democratic Republic" as the final ultimate stable form for nation states. Not only that, they also claim that this is the most moral and ideal form of statehood. Incidentally, the sample size for this system is perhaps less than half a dozen and the idea has been around for only 60 - 100 years - a tiny blip in the history of modern humans. We don't have a problem with the "Liberal Democratic Republic" per se. We do have a problem with the fact that the arguments put forward in its support are essentially moral (in a dogmatic way) in nature. When it comes to religion, the proponents of this system make a complete volte face and reject dogma. Of course, only when it suits them.

The system works well when it is derived from economic principles especially the value added concept and an inviolable socio-political contract known as the constitution. It also seems to work in a homogeneous population. It is only when you add things like secularism, liberalism and multiculturalism that the system comes under severe strain.

The problem is that today there are very few nations where this fancy idea comes under any kind of stress test. So, what is your ideal of such a nation? Sweden? try again. Saudi Arabia? Oops, sorry, not a "Liberal Democratic Republic". Malaysia? Sri Lanka? Norway?

Finally, after exhausting all the possibilities, you say Italy! and all hell breaks loose. Intellectuals have argued that when we finally arrive at that elusive ideal of a "Liberal Democratic Republic" (henceforth referred to as LDR), the notion of "our kind of people" will cease to exist. It is yet to be seen in practice. From Darfur to Georgia to Malaysia to Italy - people recognize a concept wholly external to the LDR ideals. Sometimes it is based on ethnic identity, sometimes it is religion.

This unrecognized by intellectuals yet very real notion puts a great strain to the idea of LDR. As far as we can see, the resolution happens with the help of military or political might.

One such strain occurred in a tribal district in Orissa, one of the poorest state in the Indian LDR.
This resulted in MSM headlines such as "orphanage attacked, nun killed". The incident that lead to these headlines also happened to be an orphanage and a Sadhvi was killed. Reportedly a grenade was involved. But it was not until the second orphanage was set on fire that the incident made it to the headlines. Yet the MSM widely reported the first incident (as an insignificant footnote to the second) as "a VHP leader killed". No mention of orphanage or Sadhvi getting killed.

Clearly, where a riotous mob of terrorists claim that "our Government is at the center" while they are murdering an 80 year old social worker, the idea of LDR is under strain. The LDR is also under strain when the news is not reported properly by the media.

Of course, lies are implicit in the word liberal.

Decode this

Mostly slogans like "Bharat ragda (beat India)" or the more dramatic "Bharat teri maut aye/Lashkar aye, Lashkar aye (India, your death has come/The Lashkar has come, Lashkar has come)" Yes, this incantation is indeed in praise of the Lashkar-e-Toiba, seen as a terrorist force in India but as a symbol of bravery and daredevilry in Kashmir. But it would be a mistake to deduce that the popularity of this slogan means that militants are in charge of the mass movement in the Valley.

[...]

I am served excellent salted tea at the very elegant home of Dr Shad Salim Akhtar, the Valley’s top cancer specialist. He is joined by his son, a medical student. They both tell me Indian secularism is a sham "that has cheated Muslims of every right". How is Pakistan a success, I counter, where Muslim kills Muslim and it’s tribe against tribe? "Pakistan may not be run well but that is not the fault of the concept of an Islamic nation. It is held in high esteem by many of us because it was the only country created in the name of Islam," says Dr Akhtar.

The talk of Pakistan and an Islamic state can be misleading to an outsider. [emphasis added]

[link]

Seems like plain English to us or are we missing something here? Perhaps that's why we can't understand secular-speak.

One Communist World

So China gave marching orders to Bejing's poorest so that the "I heart China" T-Shirt wearing happy crowd could wave to the western TV cameras.

China also sent a very strong signal to India. They invited Sonia Gandhi and snubbed the PM and the Prez. Since protocol demands only state leaders can be seated in the special gallery, reportedly Mrs. Gandhi had to accept a seat of lower status. Meanwhile, Prachanda, the newly minted Nepal PM was given a red carpet welcome.

The Indian communists seem to have suffered a temporary political setback but don't let that fool you. With socialists around, commies are never too far away. In a country where they can hijack the name of the biggest religion to run their propaganda press, they will be around for a long long time.

Rorschach Test

As they say, it ain't over until the fat lady sings. Well, Madam Suzanna Roy has written her essay in Outlook and the issue isn't quite over yet. So, we are likely to have lots of Cashmeriat on the headlines in the coming days.

By now, both the blogosphere and the media are chock-full with ideas and opinions. People have actually conducted opinion polls. Unfortunately, these latest polls didn't outright liberate Kashmir, like the CNN-IBN SMS poll did.

This time Madam didn't create two versions like she did for her Free Afzal essay - one for the domestic and the other for the international audience.

A sudden twist of fate, an ill-conceived move over the transfer of 100 acres of state forest land to the Amarnath Shrine Board (which manages the annual Hindu pilgrimage to a cave deep in the Kashmir Himalayas) suddenly became the equivalent of tossing a lit match into a barrel of petrol.

Thank you for the Geo lesson. But do not, repeat do not, try the barrel thing at home. At the very least The Outlook could add an advisory.

This essay is the most transparently hateful agit-prop piece she has ever penned.

Her essay is basically a ballet of three parties - the "Deep Indian State", the "green flag" people and the "saffron flag" people.

The "Deep Indian" state is a monstrous machine with unimaginable powers. The Deep State is planning strategic massacres. Like they did in the past. The Deep State is a highly effective propaganda machine. The Deep Indian state has nameless leaders.

The "green flag" people are smiling, humorous with their catchy couplets, young, spontaneous, ecstatic. All their fears are true. They never indulge in propaganda or falsehood. The leaders of the "green flag" people (named in great detail) are nice quiet men and reluctant leaders who are pushed by the youthful mob on pedestals. Although they offer a vision of a monolithic religious state, it is most certainly a benign future. A small bargain to get away from the Deep State - and the "saffron flag" people.

The "saffron flag" people are dreadful propagandists prone to rumors and preparing to launch massive genocidal attacks (when they are not planning a demographic invasion). The less said about the "saffron flag" leaders (also named), the better.

This devil dance blurring reality, imagination and interweaving propaganda with scenario analysis, Suzanna Roy has delivered a stunning piece that will appeal to high school students and clueless international audiences. Perhaps that is the intention.

Ultimately it is all about religious propaganda, isn't it? Things like the Haywood case happens, and conveniently shoved under the carpet. Or is this another propaganda hatched by the "saffron flag" people? How about this murder then? Earlier when the Swami was attacked by a mob of dozens of armed people (who shouted - "our people are running the Government"), the seculars expressed skepticism. They mocked the smiling Swamiji on a hospital bed. See? A Hindu bugger has smiled! This time they have corpus delicti. Or is it also propaganda? How about this report?

If "green flag" people have a valid claim of demographic invasion and if they see it as a parallel to the "Israeli occupation", the "saffron flag" people have a concern we must pay attention to. Especially when it is so easy to see it as another attempt at colonization. This first one started this way too. You can not apply two different sets of standards. Hindus do not even have equal claim to resources. This came from the Prime Minister himself. Hindus need freedom from the seculars as much as Kashmiris need freedom from India.

Nations were almost never created by yearning for freedom. Nations are created by might. You can not obliterate several thousands years of history and take bits and pieces from contemporary history and claim Kashmiris have a valid claim for freedom. Half of world's population lives on land occupied by people they do not consider their own in private or sometimes in public. From Sudan (Darfur) to Turkey (Kurd) to Spain (Basque) to Sri Lanka (Tamil) to USA (Puerto Rico) - there are people under occupation. Actually people are under occupation in most European countries too. They are deeply dismayed by laws of these "Secular" countries which they claim suppress their "religious freedom". Did you say they voluntarily migrated? Since when did logic and reason start to apply in these cases?

Looking at the map once again, India has given up more than enough territory. Suzanna Roy has not framed the problem right. If Kashmiris want their freedom, they know what to do and they are welcome to do it. They even staged a full scale dress rehearsal.

Mamata: Way out of her strategic depth

So, the Tatas are now talking about pulling out of Singur. This is funny, last year, when at a New Delhi auto-expo the "high-tech" Nano was unveiled, Ratan Tata mocked Mamata by remarking that the Nano could be named after her.

It is interesting to note that today, the most important women politicians in India are Sonia Gandhi, Mayawati, Jayalalitha, Raje and to an extent Mamata. We will leave out Sangma because she is too young. Readers are encouraged to point out names we might have missed. Out of these, except Maya, all are "upper-caste". This fundamentally proves many of the points Chadrabhan Prasad has been making of late - that the "OBC" are the most deeply rooted in traditional Agrarian society where women get the worst deal.

In any case, it is pretty evident what is happening in the land acquisition issues. Punjab has been the most fair - crores have been paid to farmers in exchange for their lands. We welcome this, especially when puny flats in Bombay sell for a million dollars upwards. Elsewhere, starting from Chandigarh to TN, we basically see an orgy of land grab, often by dubious individuals with the aid of wily politicians.

Singur was not to be, the only reason for this weird choice was that the WB commies needed to project a progressive facade and at the time the Left was with the UPA Government. We discussed this before. Now that the Left has pulled out, there is zero reason for setting up the plant in Singur. So, we expect the Nano to roll out from another factory, elsewhere in India.

Assuming there are 100 victims, they could recompense each victim to the tune of Rs. 1 crore yet not make much difference to the Rs. 1,500 crore budget. Yet, Mamata failed to come out with any reasonable formula. Way out of her strategic depth, she did not take on any partner who could provide her with some tactical advice. She sensed an opportunity in Nandigram which blindsided her - in order to capitalize on both Singur and Nandigram she must shun BJP since she fell for the typical binaries of secularism and communalism. In the end she gains nothing. She will neither win the communist votes nor the minority votes. If the Tatas dump Singur, she will lose even "progressive" votes. The commies will gain a face saver.

Mamata also handed a good excuse to the Nano team on a platter. Never before in history was a product so universally praised even before a single end user got his hands on a real sample. Contrast this with the iPhone launch in India. The Nano is a dumb project - even before the design was hatched, executives were lined up in New Delhi begging for various subsidies and waivers. The few tax paying individuals of India mustn't only subsidize a profligate administration's Tughlaqian schemes such as free electricity, free loans, free employment and free college seats but now they will be forced to pay for their fellow citizens' rides.

Now when your shiny Nano breaks down for no reason, you will know who to blame.

Kashmir issue over, let's have another Junoon concert in Srinagar

As we mentioned in a previous post, one could clearly see a phoniness in the "Azadi" protests. It almost looks like the issue is resolved. The protesters in Kashmir have completely backed down and normalcy fully restored. Of course the intellectuals will continue to hyperventilate for weeks to come.

It was also abundantly clear that no political party would openly endorse the "idea of Kashmir". BJP never made any bones about it, Congress is trying to hedge. As we all know, the Kashmir issue seems like a "free agent" voter issue, as fine blogger RealityCheck would say. There is a slight difference though, from other free agent voter issues like the N-Deal. The free agent voters loved the N-Deal, cronies were delirious with joy while the masses were indifferent. But land is an emotive issue and easier to comprehend relative to nuclear reactors (although that will rapidly change once the land acquisition for the massive reactors including the large peripheral safety zones begins). The Kashmir issue is different. Free agent voters are divided, masses will totally hate losing territory and the cronies couldn't care less (if you have a personal Bombardier jet, you can vacation in Switzerland).

So. Congress is trying to hedge. As we saw earlier, they are non-committal about it on TV shows. In the CNN-IBN show, Abhishek Singhvi, aided by Sagarika Ghose (he got to have the last word) totally dodged the issue and instead utilized the time bashing BJP and PDP. Admittedly he got an earful from Mehbooba Mufti. For the mass media consumption however they are not being so fuzzy at all.

"She [referring to Suzanna Roy] is a loose cannon who has abused liberal traditions of India to its fullest," said Congress spokesperson Manish Tiwari. "It is a great tribute to the tolerance of India's ethos that a person who openly calls for Balkanization of country is not being locked up and the keys are not being thrown away," Tiwari told IANS . [link]

No ambiguities there.

But our intellectuals simply won't let go. The most comical was a letter a group of intellectuals wrote to the United Nations. It is as though India is doing a media blockade or something (Nazis!). Here we are, conducting SMS polls among citizenry on the issue on Prime Time TV! Azadi even won the poll! Do these people think they have more information than the UN? Or for that matter the Azadi people have any less access to the global body (they marched to the local UN office in Kashmir for God's sake!). This sort of gestures are made by people who way over estimate their self-worth.

Dirty tricks of Congress exposed!!!

Mehbooba Mufti of PDP, Arun Jaitley of BJP and Abhishek Manu Singhvi of Congress were brought together on the CNN-IBN Face the nation show. Funny that the idea of Azad Kashmir was put to plebiscite first to the rest of the nation (albeit an informal SMS poll). Watch the show to find out if Kashmir was liberated by the SMSers.

At a point in the show, Mehbooba Mufti exposed the dirty tricks Congress typically plays and most of us are well aware of.

Video segment 4:

[file footage]

Sagarika Ghose: Azadi Azadi Azadi ... [editorializes... turns to Jaitley]

[... leading question posed to Jaitley.... long response from Jaitley... turned over to Mehbooba Mufti].

Mehbooba Mufti: Well, Sagarika, where is the extremism? [...]

And I would like to tell Mr. Abhishek Singhvi, his... his... Secular National Party was scared shit to participate in the 15th August function here, they were busy displaying Trishuls and Swords along with the Sagharsh Smaiti in Jammu .. he should know that about his own party, before he points fingers at us. Yes we are for the resolution of Kashmir issue [...]

[our transcript]

At this point Singhvi's face resembled an over ripe mango flattened by a truck on a hot summer afternoon.

CNN-IBN transcript of the same:

Mehbooba Mufti Sayeed argued that the separatist protestors were not violent in any manner. They were going about peacefully and were not armed at all. That was in stark contrast to Congress workers, she pointed out. "The Congress party workers are too scared to celebrate Independence day in the Valley and were wandering about with tridents and swords with the Amarnath Sangharsh Samiti in Jammu," she said.

Someone should grab this video soon, before CNN-IBN edits it out.

[to be continued......]

If we did it

Just a few months ago, the Pakistani pop group Junoon held a concert in Kashmir, a historic first for a music event of this type. Who would have guessed there is so much latent passion for freedom among Kashmiri youth. Of course, the youth seen cheering here are almost certainly distinct from the youth attacking CRPF posts.

So far the media has responded to the Kashmir fiasco with hysteria, recycled paranoia, utter lies and criminal propaganda. Not a single secular intellectual has pointed his finger at the biggest villain in this drama - Mehbooba Mufti. By all indications Mufti and her party precipitated the crisis in the first place. She can not claim to want a peaceful resolution and then annihilate the state Government by pulling out support.

The PDP issue shows that dialog as a tool for conflict resolution breaks down miserably under certain circumstances. Before the conflict Kashmir was deemed to be a mix of pro-India and pro-Pak people and everything in between. Now it looks like it is a mix of a small number of undecided and a large number of pro-freedom. There is a reason the hardliner separatists did not want to participate in the elections. They didn't want to legitimize the "occupation". This is where Mufti dealt a body blow to the whole constitutional approach. She ate her cake and now holding it too and the rest of Kashmir is eating out of her hands.

So, the big question is should we let the inevitable happen and liberate Kashmir? At least three intellectuals have opined we should. S. Aiyar, Vir Singhvi and of course Suzanna Roy.

It does not look like the major political parties can make that call, unless it really escalates into an ugly imbroglio (say around 50,000 casualties etc.). While the protests do appear massive, primarily due to media overreach, we sense a phoniness here. Although the hardline separatist leader Geelani has proudly proclaimed himself to be a Pakistani and expressed his wish to join Pakistan, the other parties are much less enthused. Everyone appears to be hedging their bets. Omar Abdullah has threatened to resign but has not yet lent support to freedom, nor have the Conference leaders. While all the stakeholders have hardened their stands, no one appears to want to make the first call for a full scale rebellion.

Yet, the developments in Pakistan appear to be intimately linked to the Kashmir crisis. Now that Mushy is safely out the door, they are finally looking at a South Asian style competitive democracy. The Kashmir fever runs pretty high Pakistan plus they want to give us back our dues for liberating Bangladesh.

The most likely scenario thus is a joint effort by Pakistani democratic establishment and some separatist factions in Kashmir. In this way the "moderate" separatists (whatever that means) can avoid the risk of being seen as responsible for violence. There is a big opportunity here for Pakistan as well. Once Mushy is gone, they will require another bargaining chip against increasing US involvement. Russia will be more than willing to provide this support.

India needs to plan for this contingency. It would be good to put some ground rules in place. First of all, we get to keep Jammu and possibly Ladakh. Secondly, no more aid of any form to Kashmir, trade will be contingent on continuance of Yatra. India will not meddle in the inevitable Kashmiri civil war between pro-Pakistanis and pro-freedom people (or between any number of assorted power grabbers) nor should we deploy our army if any"tribal" invasion of Kashmir happens. It is highly desirable to have the population exchange on India's terms. Also - no infiltration.

Unfortunately, the most likely Indian response will be too muck it all up. They will react too late and end up giving massive aid to Kashmir. We will also end up losing Amarnath. Otherwise you will never hear the end of it from our bleeding heart liberals (who want to give away Kashmir in the first place).

Tehelka's criminal propaganda must stop! NOW!

Not long ago, there was this story of a man incarcerated in jail (in Assam I think), for several decades, without trial. It was apparently a case of bureaucratic bungling. Recently the photograph of a 14-year old teenager, whose murder caught the nation's attention for weeks, was plastered all over media - this case exposed how bizarrely inefficient our law and order administration is. This happened in the capital, by the way.

In this environment, it is extremely easy to pick out specific cases and make them appear like parts of a systematic whole. Tehelka mastered this technique long ago. Right about now they are very precariously perched on a weak ledge, their fall being fortuitously prevented by the chaotic overall situation in the country.

Their recent special issue on SIMI victimhood can only be called what it really is: dreadful criminal propaganda of a few brazen individuals. It is no coincidence that their purported 3 month long "fact finding" mission chillingly coincided roughly with the timespan of the three latest terror attacks, nor is the fact that the issue came out just prior to the apprehension of SIMI members by the Gujarat police an accident.

There is a case for publishing reports of police inefficiency and failures of the state. But Tehelka paints a picture in pure black and white tones, completely devoid of any shades of gray. In this version SIMI is an outfit of innocents merely caught at the wrong place at the wrong time. They had nothing to do with any of the past terror incidents. Will Tehelka be willing to write an affidavit for SIMI?

Tehelka has the highest density of Nazi references (also "Kafkaesque") of any other publication we know of. This becomes a little tiring at times.

The most troubling part is how the narrative has changed over the years. During the NDA years, it was easy to make a bleak and hopeless story and it would be utterly believable. The UPA regime clearly posed difficulties in spinning the web of lies. Of course the BJP ruled states were an easy target and received the most attention. So the attention was limited to encounter killing, the Gujarat riots aftermaths and the Naxalite related cases in Chattisgarh etc. Now gradually the the scope is being expanded to phenomenal limits - detention, trials or merely questioning suspects becomes gross and serious human rights violation. In many of the stories, atrocious things were done to them simply because the "victim" told them so. Well, here is news: perhaps as many as 90% police arrests in India do not follow procedures. People picked up for petty theft are perhaps subjected to third degree in every single case. The Tehelka wallahs know this very well, yet by applying western standards it is easy to paint a bleak picture of the system. While we are on that note, in UK, even downloading Jihadi material is deemed illegal. So, at least in the eyes of some "civil societies", the SIMI dudes are not that innocent. Oh, we forgot, Tehelka preempted that possibility also - aren't the Western societies the worst perpetrators?

So we end up with a fuzzy narrative in which the entire humanity is implicated. There is simply no model state, no model society. A group of people are being victimized. They have no hope and they looking at a very bleak future.

Yet this is the best strategy for winning minority votes. It should be obvious that optimism works for the incumbent while pessimism works for the challengers. That is true for majorities. For bringing the minorities to vote in large number, you need to show them hell, with no hope for redemption.

Tehelka is merely dishing out this hell in large servings lest the poor minority bugger got complacent into missing election day.

Aside:

There is some evidence that this sort of activism by the media and some politicians is seriously hampering investigations.

All ruling UP parties united in inaction?
Pervez Iqbal Siddiqui,TNN

LUCKNOW: Political parties, which ruled the state during the past decade, had contrasting political agendas. But when it came to terrorism, they stood united.They tackled the issue with kid gloves. And this for votebank politics. Reports are that when the Gujarat police contacted their counterparts in Uttar Pradesh seeking their assistance in picking up Abu Bashar — identified as SIMI's second-in-command after its jailed president Safdar Nagori — from his house in Sarai Meer locality of Azamgarh district, they got a cold response. So much so that the Gujarat police were forced to seek a court order to facilitate his arrest on Saturday.

This is not an isolated case in a state where former chief minister Mulayam Singh Yadav stubbornly refused to ban the SIMI despite mounting evidence of its involvement in terrorism. Earlier too, on July 26, barely an hour after the Jaipur police picked up one Abdul Mateen — a teacher at Madrassa Jamia-Asharfia in Madanpura locality of Varanasi — they were virtually forced to let him off on the intervention of the police top brass.

Additional superintendent of police (ASP) BS Meena, who was heading the Jaipur Police team, claimed that they had rounded up two suspects of the Jaipur blasts who had named Mateen as their aide. Still, the police team was not allowed to take him without a court order citing law and order crises after local residents in Varanasi took to the roads stating that Mateen had been kidnapped. As if this was not enough, Samajwadi Party MLA from Varanasi City (North) Abdul Samad and Varanasi Shaher Mufti Abdul Batin, even stood as guarantors to claim that Mateen would not escape and be available to the police for quizzing as and when required. The Jaipur Police were left with no option but to let go the suspect.

It is not only the Jaipur and Gujarat police who are pointing fingers at UP. Even the prosecuting agencies in the state too air somewhat similar views. "For instance, take the issue of the assistant district government counsel (ADGC) pursuing the case of Waliullah — the India head of HuJI who is in jail in connection with the Varanasi serial blasts and seizure of RDX from his possession.

The ADGC received threats from Waliullah's supporters who said: "Jab prashasan humari madad kar raha hai to tum zyada tezi kyon dikha rahe ho (When the government is helping us then why are you pursuing the case)," recollects a senior officer of the state's law department. According to him, the threat did not appear totally unfounded.

Waliullah was arrested on April 5, 2006, after RDX, arms and ammunition were recovered from him and later he reportedly confessed to having been behind the March 8, 2006 serial blasts at Varanasi. Despite Waliullah being such a big fish, the state government showed no urgency to expedite his trial. For over a year and a half now, the forensic reports of the RDX and the firearms recovered from Waliullah remained missing. This when the Forensic Science Laboratory (FSL) at Agra issued the certified report on August 1, 2006, itself. The report finally reached the court after TOI brought the issue to light. [link]

Have a nice day

We failed. Hope the next generation does better. Sorry for the mess we left behind.

India's real class divide (draft)

(Just putting down these ideas for later expansion).

Ramachandra Guha constantly laments that Indians do not take an interest in history. This is a very strange idea. For one thing, if the study of a subject involves evaluating alternate ideas and different takes, you are precisely not allowed to do that in India. Insofar as formal education system is concerned, one must be content with the hogwash that is fed in the name of history, from elementary school to history honors classes. Outside of the classroom, the nature of historical debate is evident. We all know what happened when Prof. Upinder Singh courageously presented an alternate version of history. Unknown forces brought pressure to bear upon her and afterwards she chickened out.

The point is, the true nature of our freedom struggle and how India came into being has never really been seriously discussed. The version that was fed to us, starting from the formation of the "Grand Old Party" to how the transition of power took place, is a figment of colonial imagination. Bits and pieces of historical accidents are tied together with untenable explanation. A fine assortment is seen in Guha's famous book, India after Gandhi.

It is hard to find an example of a country where after the imperialistic/oppressive forces left, the whole bureaucracy, academia and armed forces establishment (also business) was kept intact. We are not saying this is bad per se. This is also just, if you really want to go ballistic on a part of your population just because they "cooperated" with the colonials, you ought to give them prior notice. But this warning was not given and it was well accepted that India would not erupt into a xenophobic violence against every supposed "collaborator". But this is not a silly notion at all.

During the last Presidential elections, BJP candidate Shekhawat was accused of serving as a policeman for the British. This was an official Congress statement released to the press. Guha's book has the following sentence: "Congressmen went to jail while Ambedkar served the Brits". Just take a moment to think about this. So, a mainstream party and a leading intellectual believe that participation in pre-independence British Government calls for a moral downgrade.

Let's skip the formation of Congress party and the political intrigue from about 1910 - independence and arrive at just after the midnight. Nehru made his famous tryst with destiny speech. The entire Government machinery, including many British officers, were kept intact in the new political system. We needed the expertise, but no attempt was even made to limit the influence of this colonial elite. There is nothing sinister in this. There is no reason to suspect this order of acting as fifth columnists. This also proves what our intellectuals have been totally loathe to admit. There was no real hatred against the Brits.

There is some anecdotal evidence that for a while this elite order suffered from some minor anxiety. But pretty soon they discovered what is now amply evident. They were the new feudal order (note: there are always exceptions, for a significant majority, there may not have been sinister motives but sometimes one goes with the flow). Gradually this feudal order would spread its tentacles deep and wide. They assumed and this assumption was actually subscribed at the highest level that the larger mass of people would just remain happy in the villages. The influence of the feudal order, even discounting for the fact that we had a huge Government, extended far beyond its reasonable brief. They monopolized everything, starting from plum jobs to assignments, postings, every cultural and social arena - even temples and mosques. The spouses and children became as important if not more so. As an example, recently Mayawati fired a Muslim IAS officer because his wife was holding a high profile fashion event (presumably using state resources). Thus the new Gods of India were born.

For several decades, even a seat in a cultural event required the nod of this ruling elite. The ruling class assumed the worst traits of the British, for a country supposed to have driven out a "hated" oppressive colonizer, the route to success depended on how well you emulated your past masters.

This was the nature of India for the first few decades. The opportunities were available only to people who were part of this extended power structure. So does this mean that no outsider could gain entry into this feudal order? Not really, as always there are exceptions. Besides India is a very big country. One way to make an entry was through the political route. If the ruling elite took a fancy on you, you were in. Excellence in sports and games guaranteed you spots, Bollywood stars, musicians etc. were de facto members. In this regard the new feudal order was no different from any other in history - they patronized people of the arts.

Funny thing is, once inside the system, people tended to assimilate real fast and pick up the essential traits. As an example, Shobha De, in a highly condescending column, lamented how easy it has become for the masses of India because of the so called Engineering colleges. Her milkman's (or was it the veggie vendor?) son had passed an entrance exam and she was worried that this is creating a class of nouveau riche. Even the French aristocracy did not suffer from this level of self delusion.

India's feudal order is characterized by an extremely cruel condescending attitude towards the aspiring classes, especially those holding dissenting political opinions. If any Indian is ever discovered with a happy and content smile, they will brutally put him to his place. God forbid if you feel proud, of anything at all - yourself, your native culture or just your motherland. You are only allowed to feel proud at officially sanctioned events or incidents of pride. For instance, a Rajiv Gandhi Khel ratna awardee wins a medal, a Jawaharlal Nehru scholar wins a prize etc.

It is easy to see why this class as a whole will never be able to accept the liberalization. These days it has become a fashion to sing paeans for the Nehruvian golden era. This nostalgia basically proves the point of this post. The economic forces have created some rift and unease in the ranks. Most importantly, they are unsure how to accept the new members - who by now have assumed alarming proportions and almost causing a stampede at the gate. An example of this confusion is illustrated below:

Ram Guha: For at least half its life, the Indian Parliament was a place characterised by intellectual sophistication and moral seriousness and, lest we forget, humour. The speeches of such men as Ram Manohar Lohia, Atal Behari Vajpayee and Harindranath Chattopadhyay (among others) were suffused with satirical wit.

Ram Jethmalani: Another enjoyable feature was the speech of the Railway Minister, Laloo Yadav, full of biting humour and subtle satire. Both L.K. Advani and Mayawati must have been squirming when he so artfully demolished their hypocrisy and ridiculed their political ambitions .

For a socialistic country aspiring to protect the masses from evil capitalistic forces, there is practically zero criticism of our big business in the media or by intellectuals. If Suzanna Arundhati Roy does hyperventilate against evil oppressors, her hyperbole rarely refers to any entity by name. Right about now she blames practically all of humanity. Contrast this with the US or continental Europe, activists are practically at war against "evil" Walmart etc. This is where PETA and Greenpeace are not able to make much headway in India.

There is a lot more to add to this and readers of this blog are very much aware of the ground level reality. But don't expect the intellectual class to admit to any of this.

I am in denial
you are in denial
he is in denial too
you and I will agree in our denial
he will deny its true
(from a popular syndicated comic)

Hate to break this news ....

Been observing the Kashmir fiasco for sometime now. It looks like the situation is in a perfect deadlock. In a sense this is a micro simulation of the macro problem of Kashmir.

The controversial accession and the political intrigue that ensued just after independence got us into a deadlock. So we have a "state" with special status and a strange and uneasy quasi stable equilibrium as a whole, as far as Kashmir is concerned. Instead of trying to resolve it, we have tried to live with it.

Unfortunately neither our leaders nor people understand what "deadlock" means. So we end up in a situation like this. The original Kashmir situation had some rational validity inasmuch as territorial claim and nationality has some validity. This new situation defies logic and common sense. Of course the chatterati will shout that all this is BJP's fault with the hope that people forget the role of secularism's latest cheer gal Mehbooba Mufti. Inevitably, many people will, after a decade or so.

But this does not alter the fact that we are in a deadlock. A deadlock can be broken only when one party backs down. Now, once the bad stuff hits the fan, many intellectuals will make solemn appeals to Hindus. Sure enough, they could use adult napkins instead of makeshift restroom facilities. But the question is, why should they? Put Congress in BJP's shoes for a moment. Would they give up this opportunity? Those buggers made political assets out of every trouble in BJP ruled states. Remember the Gujjar agitation? Our stupid Home Minister made a completely nonsensical point equating the Afzal issue with an Indian citizen falsely incarcerated in a Pakistani jail.

The more you think about this, the more you feel that this is going to be the curtain raiser for the final inevitable solution for Kashmir. There are two ways of going about it - the Nehru way, i.e. total bungling and chaos and the 21st century way. The only reasonable exit strategy for India is to take Jammu and give up Kashmir. We are completely game.

The games they play...

The Chinese communist leadership thinks this little girl is too "ugly". She was the real voice behind the national anthem played during the opening ceremony. But the girl the world saw wasn't her. Apparently she didn't fit the communist aesthetic sense. So they had another little girl stand in for her and lip sync.

We recommend China replace their ugly premier Hu Jintao's pictures with a cute Panda.

Boring sting

We were really looking forward to see how CNN-IBN would manage the general election coverage sans a major political party. This would be a first of sorts. In any case, CNN-IBN finally did broadcast the sting tapes and presumably the BJP will have to withdraw their boycott of the channel.

Happened to catch some of the sting footage and it sucked. Here is the biggest irony about sting operations. They are boring as hell. A hidden camera, which is invariably of low res because of logistic reasons. The camera does not move. Does not pan, does not zoom. It does not help that the host (in this case Rajdeep Sardesai) wears an expression on his face as though he was dragged to the studio on pain of death.

Sting operations need to be edited to perfection. Compare and contrast with the Tehelka stings. The Tehelka stings had these components:

1. Interspersed Bollywood movie footage
2. Groovy soundtrack, expert editing
3. A totally convinced commentator
4. Contextual news reel footage, location shots
5. Expert and intellectual opinion in support of the story being put forth in the sting

In contrast, the CNN-IBN cash for votes sting had the following features:

1. No Bollywood movie footage
2. Rajdeep Sardesai said "alleged" a million times as in: The alleged country India's allegedly best news channel broadcast an alleged sting in which a certain political party alleged certain inappropriate conduct by another alleged(*) political party.
(*) The final alleged is because Rajdeep simply would not stop pointing out that no Congress party members were in anyway involved.
3. Repeated assertions that the sting was not complete. Well, the trust vote is over. UP dons are about to plunder zillions from the national treasury. Surely they can't expect an on camera mea culpa from Amar Singh?
4. Several experts suddenly expressing their grave thoughts on the urgent need to develop a set of sting standards, sort of like a Six Sigma for Sting operations.

Meanwhile a critical link in the chain, one Mr. Saxena, has gone missing. Amar Singh is denying any connection with this man who was well known to run errands for the politician. We just hope this man doesn't end up in a ditch.

Come to think of it, the only thing that differentiates India's democracy with that of Zimbabwe is lack of political murders. We have everything else: rigging, bribery, utter disregard for the constitution, contempt of the judges. So socialists! Cheer Up! India is just a few bullets away from sub-Saharan Africa!

A few thoughts on the inflation

(please click on the images for a larger version)

So, the inflation as measured by the year-over-year growth of the WPI was about 12.01% for the week ending July 26. Some people argue that there is no inflation and it is all because of India's inflation reporting. In other words, if India were to report inflation like the US (they primarily report the CPI increase over the previous month, not annualized), the inflation would disappear.

Let's examine that. In the chart above, the pink line is the plot of week-over-week inflation (annualized). You can see two problems here. First, the raw value of week-over-week increase is too small. Second, there are wild fluctuations. In other words, if the Government were to report inflation like the US, they would have to quote the numbers along the pink line, not along the blue line as they currently do.

What is being implied is that there was a spike of sorts and then things have cooled down but the spike remained in the numbers. Clearly the above chart shows that this is not the case. True, the last 2 - 3 weeks were flat at around 6.5%, but who is to say we will not see another peak again? The green line trends the pink line. It is quite accidentally horizontal at the moment, trending at around 17% now.


This chart presents two random scenarios and what the resulting inflation numbers would look like depending on whether you report yoy or wow. Chart A shows a steady annual rate of inflation at 5%. Here the pink week over week line coincides with the blue annual inflation number. Chart B shows a spike (as is being suggested). In this case, as you can see the week over week number suddenly spiked and then fell back to the previous level. However, the blue line, once spiked up, stayed there. This is what is being suggested.

But as you can see from the first graph, this is not exactly the case.

India's next Finance Minister?

The harder Amar Singh denies the possibility of joining the cabinet, the faster does the rumor mill churn.

Congress, however, may require more time to accommodate SP which has not only sought key cabinet berths but also linked its joining the central government to the firming up of a seat-sharing arrangement with Congress in Uttar Pradesh. [link]

We predicted the seat-sharing possibility weeks ago. This has more to do with a belief in Congress circles that they can get more seats if the secular votes do not get divided. After the Karnataka elections, Congress bosses simply would not stop talking about it.

Thus it is the Congress which wants the seat sharing arrangement. In return, SP will demand plum portfolios. Without a doubt, Amar Singh has been eyeing the Finance Ministry portfolio for sometime. Recently in response to a question on a TV interview, he replied that he wanted windfall profit taxes on Oil companies just like the US democrats. You sure can't argue with that in Indian intellectual circles, can you? The man sure has done his homework. He has also shot off a letter to SEBI making specific allegations of insider trading against a certain company.

Amar Singh wants respect in the "black tie/wine and cheese pairing circles". Coming from the political background he does, you are an automatic write-off. People may laugh at your gaudy jokes, but just about. Yet Amar Singh is much more polished than his feudal peers. He can speak the language, albeit with a funny accent. This side of his character has been noticed.

Unfortunately, one can buy votes, one can't buy respect. When one realizes it, one sets about to acquire the next best thing, i.e. fear. Now, who does the club he wants to join fear most?

SIMI Unplugged

NEW DELHI: In a major setback to anti-terror efforts, a special tribunal on Tuesday lifted the ban on the Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI), saying that the government had failed to provide sufficient evidence to justify continued curbs on the fundamentalist group. [...]

The move to lift the ban on SIMI comes amid what intelligence agencies say is mounting evidence of its involvement in major terrorist attacks, the most recent being the serial blasts in Ahmedabad and Bangalore. [link]

Astonishing piece of news. One minor point, SIMI is now SIM, they have dropped the rather unimportant component from their name. Meanwhile Amar Singh's security was upgraded to Z-Plus status.

This is no coincidence, it is intimately linked to the new friends of Congress.

We agree with the Supreme Court.

Sting envy

The various attempts at covering up the cash-for-votes scandal has reached a stage beyond silly.
First there was a comically botched reverse sting attempt by Uma Bharti. Now the trio of Lalu-Ram Vilas Paswan-Mulayam is attempting to peddle another CD, claiming that they can refute the cash-for-votes allegations. The latter attempt could be a desperate last ditch attempt to save buddy boy Amar Singh's skin.

It is incredible that instead of showing these jokers the door, the media is actually tacitly encouraging them.

Lalu-Mulayam-Ram Vilas & Co. have outlived their usefulness in Indian politics. An excellent column (coincidentally his latest) by Chandrabhan Prasad explains what these politicians are really about. The media is not really doing anyone a favor, least of all to their favorite secular party, by cheering for these primitives.

USS New York

The Americans forged a warship out of the steel from the ruins of the World Trade Center. The symbolism is unmistakable. Read more on the website.

An excerpt:

"This new class of ships will project American power to the far corners of the Earth and support the cause of freedom well into the 21st century. From the war for independence through the war on terrorism, which we wage today, the courage and heroism of the people of New York has been an inspiration. USS New York will play an important role in our Navy's future and will be a fitting tribute to the people of the Empire State."

Governor George Pataki, Governor of New York, responded by stating, "On September 2001, our nation's enemies brought their fight to New York... The USS New York will now bring the fight to our nation's enemies well into the future."

Pretty heavy stuff, this. Perhaps unpalatable to the "pacifist" Indian taste. Funny thing is, you feel almost no presence of the military in American civilian life. Contrast this with India. With all the intellectual whining and an atmosphere heavy with longing desire for a return to what is described as a Gandhian utopia, the military is almost under constant deployment in India, to contain various civilian strifes. Always has been.

India hasn't really been together on account of Bollywood, as Ramachandra Guha says. India is held together by military strength. Except that we refuse to acknowledge it.

Can Crony Capitalism help India?

Ah! "Reforms" - a word that is making rounds in the intellectual circles these days. It is another matter that no one knows when they will come and in what form, if at all. Funny that these "reforms" are basically a move towards market economy, yet people are so loathe to use the other phrase that they must necessarily disguise it by using a less "dangerous" sounding word (hint: Aaam Aadmi mustn't get wise, Shhhh).

On the face of it, it would appear that crony-capitalism sometimes leads to great success. The Japanese success story, the relative success of South Korea, Taiwan or even Indonesia/Malaysia lends credence to this observation. Even the United States had their robber baron era. In the South-East Asian nations, crony capitalism was used as an exit route to realize economic gains while the Government maintained a populist front.

There are many issues with crony-cap and it can inflict varying degrees of injustice and damage. In extreme cases, for instance feudalism, it causes extreme distress and spark off "revolutions" (another word, not so nice today). In mixed economies, it produces uneven and unpredictable results.

Crony capitalism is not new in India, it started much before independence and was officially sanctioned by the "Bombay Plan". Then the reasons were very different as were the players and people taking the initiative. It is very evident that crony capitalism is leading to ruination of our economic framework. While some of the crony-cap cases such as the big business houses are wildly successful, others like T. R. Baalu are not. The former are mostly interested in stability and a broad economic policy that clandestinely elevates their profits and scope of business and reduces competition. However, it really depends on whether the Government side can make the correct calls. The expensive Nuclear energy deals (and almost sure to come subsequent subsidies to bring the price level with thermal/hydro electric) will lead to great loss of economic value. The SEZ policy caused unimaginable human rights violation that parallels some of the brutal feudal regimes. This policy must be scrapped, at the very least, greatly modified. Apart from becoming a tool for indiscriminate land grab, the SEZ policy is simply not producing the intended effect. In any case, Government policies seldom do.

The pathetic case of T R Baalu (Shipping and Transportation Minister) presents another face of crony capitalism. His companies are BIFR cases, even after procuring gas at a drastically reduced prices. The danger is that a completely incompetent but politically powerful entity may take it upon himself to launch businesses. This scenario leads to huge economic losses for the country. If allowed to continue unabated, the politician then enacts laws to help his company. This was the case with sick politician run sugar mill units of Maharashtra and elsewhere (Pratibha Patil!). In other instances, like in the case of Dr. Ramadoss (Health Minister), the politician applies his political power to enable his friends.

Crony capitalism must never be a policy objective, but realistically a certain amount of it is unavoidable. Crony cap harms can be minimized if there is a small Government to begin with. Allowing external competition can prevent value destruction to a great extent. It also helps to have realistic politicians, who realze whether they have it in them and accordingly become a cheerleader like Amar Singh rather than trying to be a playah like T. R. Baalu. A healthy dose of nationalist feelings mitigates the risks of surrendering the nation's sovereignty.

Opening up the economy since the 90s has definitely helped India. A country that used to only evoke scorns of derisive laughter is now getting a sliver of respect on the global stage. But the pace has been so slow that people have learned how to game the system. Wild swings in policy and laws that affect trade and business helped the cronies. It didn't help that along with "liberalization", instead of becoming smaller (literal meaning), it spread its tentacles further and further. Perhaps every fifth person in India is "Government", if one were to exclude the poorest quartile. Our obscurantist monetary framework is not helping either. For some reason the Government has taken upon itself to destroy value by keeping the exchange rate absurdly low.

The fragmented political scenario has thrown us into an enabling environment that practically breeds corruption and cronyism. Instead of becoming more like the successful nations, we are increasingly beginning to resemble Latin American and African nations.