How big a deal is Nuclear Power?

This is the latest report on what industry stalwarts estimate will be the business opportunities opened up by the Nuclear Deal:

An overwhelming 85 percent of the 300 chief executives polled held the view that modifications to India's Atomic Energy Act of 1962 could help the country to generate some 20,000 MWe (unit of nuclear power) by 2020.

[...]

The act [India's Atomic Energy Act of 1962: India's domestic act restricting Nuclear power generation to the Government] and the decades of India's nuclear isolation had resulted in capping the country's nuclear power generation capacities to an extent of just 3,900 MWe in over 60 years of independence.

As a result, out of a total installed generation capacity of about 145,000 MW of electricity, 70 [percent] is accounted for through thermal [coal and gas] fuel and 20 percent by hydro, with nuclear energy contributing to just two percent.

The remaining capacities come by tapping the various sources of non-conventional energy such as solar, wind, biomass and tidal waves. [emphasis added]

Let's walk through this.

In year 2008, the total installed capacity of Nuclear Power is 3,900 MW out of a total of 145,000 MW, i.e. 2.7%

Assume that our total installed capacity doubles to about 300,000 MW by year 2020. This is about 7% annual growth. It could be more.

Industry experts estimate our Nuclear capacity could go up to 20,000 MW in year 2020. This is about 5 huge plants generating up to 4,000 MW each, costing $15 Billion or more each. This will be just about 7% of our total installed capacity for electricity generation. Let's round it up to 10%, assuming even more aggressive capacity building than the industry pundits are estimating.

So, in essence the Nuclear deal will allow us to achieve just 10% of total installed generation capacity through Nuclear technologies by year 2020. This will be at a higher cost compared to conventional energy sources which will be inevitably heavily subsidized and the cost ultimately passed on to the taxpayer.

Admittedly there are fringe benefits - environmental, Indian companies may become suppliers of components etc. but there are things we will lose out on. There is the element of long tailed risk (Chernobyl etc.), land acquisition issues and the minor matter of sacrificing potential Thorium based solutions (provided we do not blow up our Thorium reserves along with the Ram Setu by then), pushing our domestic producers away from developing other technologies (Wind, Solar and Sea waves and indeed more efficient and cleaner thermal solutions).

This helps us to put into perspective the debate about sacrificing national security. A lot more on that later.

[Update]

The Business Standard confirms the projections. Also, this is how Dawn, Pakistan's leading English paper reports it:

For global nuclear energy companies, the decision opens the door to an atomic reactor market worth billions of dollars with India aiming to double its share of nuclear power to five to seven percent by 2030.

The Confederation of Indian Industry forecast business opportunities worth around 30 billion dollars over the next 15 years with India needing about 18 to 20 more nuclear reactors. It now has 22 reactors. [emphasis added]

Indian newspapers are maintaining a radio silence on this statistic. We are reading frothy editorials, poetic flourishes, self-congratulatory pats all around.