Monday, December 11, 2006

How to read the Nuclear Bill

The nuclear bill, which passed with overwhelming majority in the US house is so mired in controversy and rhetorics that it is impossible for us ordinary mortals to see the implications. Indeed such bills are written in a manner that will confuse even the most astute political observer.

As you know, the opposition BJP/RSS and Leftist allies of Congress are pretty upset with this bill. It doesn't mean a thing, nada, zilch. In the tradition of our fine democracy, the opposition is supposed to make a huge noise at anything substantial done at the center. The Left barks at every passing vehicle. This was the general pattern during the NDA rule as well, indeed UPA has implemented almost every policy undertaken by NDA that it denigrated at the time.

So, how to cut through the crap and decide whether we are a net winner? Pretty simple actually. You observe the reactions of folks.

(A) What is the reaction of the democrats in the US?
(i) Democrats are fainting en masse at Washington Square Park, New York, nude protests going on.
(ii) Democrats held a peacefully rally
(ii) Bill passed with overwhelming majority - token protest by a few democrat senators.

(B) What is the reaction of Pakistan?
(i) Musharraf frothing at the mouth and presently hospitalized
(ii) Pakistan diplomats and politicians issue strong statements directed at the bill
(iii) A few Pakistani newspapers make some noise

(C) What is the reaction of China?
(i) China invades Arunachal Pradesh
(ii) Chinese envoy chokes on chicken chow mein.
(iii) Chinese issue strongly worded press releases

(D) What is the reaction of the Indian scientific community involved in defense research and defense forces ?
(i) Huh?
(ii) Scientists issue angry statements to the press
(iii) Mass resignation by scientists and coup by the army chief

So on and so forth.

So far it looks like India managed to get exemption from inspection for some nuclear facilities. Oh, we got the Iran waiver, i.e. US can not force India to change its Iran policy. This is again one of those minority ego stoking thingy and has no real consequence. We do get civilian nuclear technology.

Note that Nuclear power is no panacea. Although in theory nuke-power should be cheaper than conventional energy sources, it presently costs up to 50% more than coal-power. Huge upfront capital expenditures are required and there are capacity utilization and maintenance issues. There are safety concerns as well. Here is what takes the cake: nuke-power is usually supported by huge Government subsidies. No prizes for guessing who will eventually foot the bill. So don't expect to keep your Christmas lights on all year long anytime soon.

Our verdict: 4/10
Winner: Indian politicians and administrators who will approve the projects
Runner-up: GE, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, L&T

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