Karnataka Election Coverage

Happened to catch some of CNN-IBN coverage of the Karnataka elections. Here is a rundown.

Silly Board Game: The election coverage was as high-tech as it gets, complete with live updates, split screens, well coordinated multi-location video input, digital touch screens etc.

They put a strange device on the studio floor, a map of Karnataka with different colored cubes on it that could be moved. This device proved to be too cumbersome and especially when BJP started gaining momentum, the artifact was left untouched for the duration of the program.



Cartoon TV: They used a feature in which a politician would be shown in an inset mock TV screen surrounded by a cartoon audience. Only BJP politicians seemed to get this treatment and even when making completely neutral statements. We can't seem to figure out why Yediyurappa would be shown on the cartoon TV when he was merely thanking K'taka people.







Intellectuals: CNN-IBN invited a curious creature called Gauri Lankesh as a special guest. She was so upset that she was at a loss for words most of the time, at one point of time recalling the word "fascist" with great difficulty and then losing the chain of her thoughts completely. She called it a black day for Karnataka and that she believed Yediyurappa will be extremely bad for the state. Future tense. She also claimed Gujarat had higher rates of farmer suicides than Karnataka.


At one point of time intellectual Ramachandra Guha rued that BJP hadn't fielded any Muslim candidate although the state had 20% Muslims. He was duly reminded that K'taka has about 12% Muslims. Do watch the video, it is instructive.

Exit Poll: Various theories were put forward by the CNN-IBN team about why the exit polls went wrong. Apparently the polling errors and vote-percentage to seat translation errors cancel each other out. Only this time they went the same way. This does not explain why the other three polls did so much better, one of them being practically bang on the mark.







Yogendra Yadav blamed Dalits for the errors in exit poll. This brings up an important question. Despite dogged campaign by the media and incessant carpet bombing by intellectuals, Dalits are voting for the BJP in large numbers. Also, Mayawati's magic doesn't appear to work outside of a few states.








Whatever it takes: CNN-IBN blog-gal Divisha Gupta was making pulse checks on the blogosphere. Only secular blogs were quoted. The only reference to BJP blogs was a general statement, saffron blogs are euphoric.

Rajdeep Sardesai and Sagarika Ghose had dropped all pretense of neutrality long ago. This time they went much further, directly identifying themselves as part of the family in questions such as "how could we have done better", fielded to Congress leaders.

Towards the end, Vidisha Divisha and her team chimed the team slogan: whatever it takes (to defeat the communal forces).


Concedes defeat: In every election Congress loses, CNN-IBN puts up this silly frame. As if it imparts some sort of magnanimity on the party. Everyone who has observed the countdown knows that Jayanti Natarajan and Manu Singhvi were in no mood to concede defeat, even after BJP was leading in 100+ seats. We all know what would happen if Congress-JD(S) combine exceeded the BJP tally. As a matter of fact Singhvi went on record by saying the largest single combine should form the Government. He should remember that for the next general elections when UNPA runs him over with their train wreck coalition.


It was a narrow win for the BJP and we anticipate constant trouble for the party. It is the curious statistics that only six seats went to rebels and miscellaneous parties and BJP needs at least three. You can imagine the horse trading that will ensue in the days to come.


CNN-IBN supremo wore saffron to the studio a day after the election results.

Why Democracy?

Trailer and details available here.

New word

Syncretic.

Replaces secularism.

.

Looks like you are shy three horses.

The last supper

George Orwell on pacifism

Pacifism. Pacifism is objectively pro-Fascist. This is elementary common sense. If you hamper the war effort of one side you automatically help that of the other. Nor is there any real way of remaining outside such a war as the present one. In practice, ‘he that is not with me is against me’. The idea that you can somehow remain aloof from and superior to the struggle, while living on food which British sailors have to risk their lives to bring you, is a bourgeois illusion bred of money and security. Mr Savage remarks that ‘according to this type of reasoning, a German or Japanese pacifist would be “objectively pro-British”.’ But of course he would be! That is why pacifist activities are not permitted in those countries (in both of them the penalty is, or can be, beheading) while both the Germans and the Japanese do all they can to encourage the spread of pacifism in British and American territories. The Germans even run a spurious ‘freedom’ station which serves out pacifist propaganda indistinguishable from that of the P.P.U. They would stimulate pacifism in Russia as well if they could, but in that case they have tougher babies to deal with. In so far as it takes effect at all, pacifist propaganda can only be effective against those countries where a certain amount of freedom of speech is still permitted; in other words it is helpful to totalitarianism.

I am not interested in pacifism as a ‘moral phenomenon’. If Mr Savage and others imagine that one can somehow ‘overcome’ the German army by lying on one’s back, let them go on imagining it, but let them also wonder occasionally whether this is not an illusion due to security, too much money and a simple ignorance of the way in which things actually happen. As an ex-Indian civil servant, it always makes me shout with laughter to hear, for instance, Gandhi named as an example of the success of non-violence. As long as twenty years ago it was cynically admitted in Anglo-Indian circles that Gandhi was very useful to the British government. So he will be to the Japanese if they get there. Despotic governments can stand ‘moral force’ till the cows come home; what they fear is physical force. But though not much interested in the ‘theory’ of pacifism, I am interested in the psychological processes by which pacifists who have started out with an alleged horror of violence end up with a marked tendency to be fascinated by the success and power of Nazism. Even pacifists who wouldn’t own to any such fascination are beginning to claim that a Nazi victory is desirable in itself. [link]

Interesting editorial

BOMB blast in Jaipur. Round up the usual suspects. Calling Abdul, Rahman, Rahim, Karim, Salim. All you "illegal" Bangladeshi immigrants within our borders. Report to the newest detention centers. It's not who you say you are, it's what we say you are. Bangladesh has emerged as the all-purpose "Nondo Ghosh" (joto dosh) for Indian intelligence agencies. Attack on train station? Defused bombs? Bicycle bombs? Bag bombs? It must be the ultra-efficient, tentacle-spreading spectre of "terrorist organisations based in Bangladesh." [...]

I remember the old days of Indian media hysteria about "Pakistani" militants. Bullet riddled bodies (the dead don't talk) and Pakistani passports (always in their pockets!). But Pakistan has become more complex, with its role in the US axis of the willing. Plus, the public wants new, fresh faces. Some time in the last few years, it has become easier and acceptable to bring out the Bangladeshi "militant cell" bogey. That there is Islamist politics inside Bangladesh is not in question. [...]

Of course, there are many Bangladeshi immigrants inside India. There will always be. The real question about Jaipur is -- who are these people in the "Bangali Para" -- what were they doing all this time? Working for middle class Indian families, of course. Everyone in India knows exactly why these people are there -- to work. As household help, cleaners, sweepers, cooks, maids, taxi drivers, tailors, weavers, jewellery makers, construction workers. Keeping Shining Indian rolling along. Yesterday, they were your convenient and easy source of cheap labour. Why are they a problem today? As India develops as a hyper-growth Asian tiger, with Bangladesh next door, immigration is inevitable. Until we become a medium growth country, we will be as a "Mexico" to India's "United States." Bangladeshis, hungry for work, willing to work, with families to feed, will cross the borders. [link]

Can you trust Dr. Margaret Chan?

The vaccine scam is getting hotter by the day, with the Left joining the fray. More facts are coming to light and some of these are very disturbing.

Meanwhile Dr. Ramadoss is as usual frothing at the mouth. His latest claim is that the Tobacco and Alcohol lobby is targeting him. Last time he got cornered, he alleged casteism.




The facts of the case are simple but it could just be that India is about to give away its competitive advantage in yet another field.

So, to recap:

1. Dr. Ramadoss, the maverick health minister, does not make a peep from 2004-07 about vaccine production.
2. In 2008, three renowned Chennai based vaccine producing PSUs were suddenly shut down.
3. Dr. Ramadoss suddenly becomes concerned about vaccine quality, citing reports by the WHO.
4. It appears that the three PSUs were supplying vaccine to hundreds of millions of Indian kids with very little problem. The employees and administration cries foul.
5. A buddy of Dr. Ramadoss launches a private facility, ostensibly to replace the PSU capacity.
6. Buddyboy also gets a loan of Rs. 15 crores, facilitated, get this, by another PSU!
7. Now left parties join the fray, claims that there might be vaccine shortage.
8. Dr. Ramadoss now claims he had no intention of shutting down the PSUs. He is even quoting the prices of the private facility! Just like the WB ministers were providing daily updates to Nano production schedule. Talk about public-private partnership.
9. It also comes to light that India produces 80% of the vaccines for developing countries, generating a revenue of $15B.
10. Dr. Ramadoss unveils a hitherto unknown and unheard of plan for a 400 acre vaccine park!
    

Even a paanchvi-paas could tell you that the above sequence does not sound normal.

Needless to say, socialists are not even making a peep on an issue that could potentially endanger the lives of hundreds of millions of infants ("there is no alternative", "the communals must not come to power", "do not politicize vaccine production").

We have however a different take on the whole issue. The WHO has been inspecting and giving warnings on these PSUs for several years now. Pushed into a corner, Dr. Ramadoss is now citing the WHO director Dr. Margaret Chan's concerns about vaccine quality.

Now, we looked up Dr. Margaret Chan's bio:

Dr Margaret Chan, from the People's Republic of China, obtained her medical degree from the University of Western Ontario in Canada. She joined the Hong Kong Department of Health in 1978, where her career in public health began.

This should send alarm bells ringing. Dr. Ramadoss should defend his country's facilities, instead of playing monkey tricks and making spurious allegations. If we have been supplying 80% of developing world's vaccines, the WHO has no business to shut us down.

Just where is inflation headed?

(Click image for a larger version)

The correct answer is North! Just kidding. You don't want that to happen, do you? Rising food prices means millions of people earning less than $2 a day are giving up health care and education. Those living on less than $1 a day are giving up meat and vegetables, and those living on less than 50 cents are facing increasingly desperate hunger. How many such people might be there in India? Ask your socialist friends.

The chart above can be used to see the current trend. The last column is the familiar WPI growth figure. The weekly annualized columns for 2007 and 2008 show the growth of the WPI index week over week, annualized. If you see the averages for the weekly annualized growth in the last row, it clearly shows this year the WPI number is growing much faster than last year. In other words, even if prices suddenly become flat, inflation as reported will not come down by much. For instance, consider the row highlighted in green. This is what the Minister of State for Industry believes will be the inflation figures in a few weeks from now. As you can see, it is going to be pretty tough to get down to that number.

Also see the random jumps in the weekly annualized numbers - this shows a Government intervention. For instance, right now the FM is browbeating the steel and cement companies into reducing prices. Together, these two sectors contribute about 12% to the inflation index. A good time to build that home? Maybe.


A significant portion of the price rise must be due to increases in oil prices, although that does not fully explain the massive increase in food prices. The socialists can thank their Saudi friends and Venezuelan ally for this. The Saudis have refused to increase production. The 21st Century socialist Hugo Chavez can be counted on to create chaos later this year. Both these parties want to influence the US elections, towards the end of this year.


If the price levels seem bad today, wait till all the election promises kick in. The Government has found a nice way to bypass the FRBM act. The official deficit runs at around 3%, but many items such as fuel and electricity subsidies are kept off budget. The farmer loan waiver and NREG also belong to this category. Then you read items such as this almost every other day. It is the same old story, they give Rs. 2 a kg rice to a set of people, the other set starves. Who decides which set of people get to starve?

Pretty soon the Rs. 2 a kg rice and free color TV options will hit their limiting factors. The only thing left is distributing bags full of money. So far this has not been done since direct cash bribing may be marginally illegal. But given the recent supreme court verdicts and their underlying implications, it will just take a daring politician and a creative twist.

Karataka Election Watch: Phase II

As we had suspected, CNN-IBN did not run the candidate profile for the second phase of the elections. On the face of it, this seems non-intuitive:

A survey conducted by the Karnataka Election Watch, a non-governmental organisation, states that the Bharatiya Janata Party has the highest number of candidates with a criminal background. The BJP tops the list with 13 while the Congress and the Janata Dal-Secular come second and third with 9 and 8 candidates respectively.

However, as we dig deeper, the reason becomes clearer:

The total assets declared by all candidates considered by KEW for phase 2 of the elections was Rs.902 crore, with average candidates assets of Rs.2.42 crore. The Congress led the parties with total declared candidate assets of Rs.470 crore and average candidate assets of Rs.7.35 crore. The BJP had total assets of Rs.249.8 crore and average of Rs.3.78 crore, JD-S Rs.77.9 crore and Rs.1.28 crore, and BSP Rs.40.6 crores and Rs.0.64 crore.

CNN-IBN was trying to prove that BJP has the maximum involvement with the mining mafia in central Karnataka, primarily by running an extremely biased item which only named a BJP politician. These stats would run counter to that story.

The Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) is a very good initiative if you want to decriminalize and cleanse Indian politics. For obvious reasons this is not getting as much press or secular attention. Contrast this with the attention the various "Human Rights" groups get.

To hear the Election Watch guys, check out this YouTube video. See if you can recognize one of the most celebrated intellectuals on that video. You can also hear in the background someone's mobile phone going off, the ring tone being Mozart's Turkish Rondo.

Jaipur blasts: various fallouts

Apparently the main problem with the blasts is that BJP might exploit it as an election issue. CNN-IBN is trying to pass it off as a local governance issue, putting the blame squarely on Vasundhara Raje. Gosh, does this woman get mocked by media or what? And they claim they want a better playing field for women!

Recall the Gurjar agitation, when Sagarika Ghose of CNN-IBN sarcastically called out "Maharani Jago!", alluding to the fact that the CM was on a tour when the agitation turned violent. Interestingly Raje was not on a pleasure trip a la Pratibha Patil. She was actually on an official tour to solicit FDI. This time around Raje was lucky, she was close to the spot. Meanwhile can someone explain the trip by Sonia Gandhi to the region? Has she been to Nandigram?

Meanwhile the national security adviser's strong criticism of central intelligence agencies has put a dampener on secular media's efforts to pin the blame on state level agencies. They seem to have struck a compromise on "a problem of coordination" between central and state level agencies.

It turns out that the needle of suspicion is alternately pointing to HuJI and SIMI. Both these cases are tragic.

HuJI is Bangladesh based and as we pointed out earlier, this is a sad reminder that kinship trumps gratitude. New facts are now coming to light that shows that certain Bangladeshi elements were very much hand in glove with Pakistani rulers at the time. Till date no serious initiative has been taken to prevent the totally unchecked infiltration. Just make a trip to the North-Eastern states. Surely this builds up discontent among local residents? We are not exactly a resource rich country.

The case of SIMI is even more tragic and once again proves that the meaning of nationality has been perverted by "liberal democracies" to such an extent that we are perhaps trying to drag along a mere carcass of what was once the "idea of the nation". Founded by students (by no means poor or deprived) influenced by Wahabi ideology (the Saudi variant), SIMI leaders were a recalcitrant militant bunch from the get go. They created various mischief over the years but hid behind political leaders who didn't hesitate to nurture this poison pill for small electoral gains. It took a while before they were even declared a terrorist organization. Samajwadi Party chief and Congress bed partner for the next elections , Mulayam Singh Yadav gave a clean chit to SIMI earlier, in 2006.

Sadly, this tragic incident has completely removed the focus from issues like inflation, the Baalu scandal and the Ramadoss vaccine scandal. Not that we are suggesting that there is any connection.

Are you terrified?

India's terror anniversary calendar now covers every month of the year, except it seems, the month of June.

The stories are the same. N blasts, at least X dead, at least Y injured. Foreign hand suspected, etc.

What happens to the ones that don't make the official count? Are they rounding error?

Virus

We are deeply saddened by the recent catastrophe in Burma. To add to the misery of the helpless Burmese people, the Burmese military rulers are doing their best to sabotage international aid operations. From the looks of it, this thing is not going to pan out well. Expect deadly spillovers.


Anyway.



You must have noticed that TOI has started a Chennai edition. For the past few days, we noticed a few of similar stories [google search] out of Chennai and elsewhere:

MUMBAI: Even as health officials investigate the death of two children after they were administered Hepatitis B and DTP (diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis) vaccines, TOI has learnt of one more incident in which a two-month-old died this week, this time after taking the BCG (Bacille Calmette-Guerin) vaccine given to prevent childhood tuberculosis.

DHARMAPURI: Amid rising concern over baby vaccines, a 3-month-old baby boy died at Kambainallur village here this morning, 10 days after he was given the triple antigen or DTP and Hepatitis B shots. [..] vaccine from the Kambainallur PHC for analysis to rule out contamination.

Dharmapuri district Collector, Amudha, told The Times of India that 70 children were given the vaccine from the batch of five. And none of the other children developed any complications.

NEW DELHI (AFP) - India has recalled over four million doses of a measles vaccine supplied by a south Indian drug manufacturer after four children died following inoculation with the drug, reports said Friday. "All state governments have been instructed to stop use of the measles vaccine manufactured by the Indian Immunological Limited until further orders," Health Minister Anbumani Ramadoss told the Press Trust of India news agency.

Further supplies from the manufacturer have also been halted, he said.

An Indian minister expressed concern that the development could jeopardise India's larger immunisation efforts, sometimes beset by rumours about the safety of the injections. In the past, India's attempts to eradicate polio have been delayed after some Islamic clerics spread rumours the vaccines would harm Muslim children.

HYDERABAD: A four-month-old boy K. Aravind died allegedly within hours of administration of vaccine at a Government medical camp at Sanathangar on Saturday.The Sanathnagar police registered a case of suspicious death under section 174 of Criminal Procedure Code following a complaint from the victim’s parents.

These looked pretty odd. First of all, there is no easy stats available on how many babies were administered the vaccine vs. how many died, if there is an increasing trend, if the deaths were unambiguously attributable to the vaccine itself or were the babies suffering from other conditions. But the key thing is that the media is very strongly suggesting that the vaccines are to be blamed. The Health Minister himself is making statements fanning the fire of suspicion.

The death of even one baby would be tragic but this is a particularly sensitive case. If rumors spread before there is credible evidence, it will create havoc for the future health of millions of babies. It took decades of efforts to get Indian mothers to get their babies vaccinated, especially the poorest section. It will only take a few irresponsible and malicious rumor to destroy this trust.

We didn't think any more of the matter then, except to reflect that Dr. Ramadoss had earlier blamed UP and Bihar folks for spreading Polio in Maharshtra. He didn't have the scrotum to say which group of people from UP and Bihar though.

The mystery gradually unfolded as we read the following article:

A Chennai-based private company, owned by a close associate of Union Health Minister Anbumani Ramadoss, was granted a Rs 14-crore bank loan for starting production of vaccines just two weeks before the Health Ministry banned vaccine production by three Central public sector undertakings (PSUs).

Ramadoss ordered the closure of vaccine production by three PSUs citing a June 2007 WHO report, which claimed that these units were using redundant technology. BCG Vaccine Lab (Chennai), Pasteur Institute (Coonoor) and Central Research Institute of Kasauli were asked to close down production on January 22. Incidentally, the private company -- Green Signal Bio Pharma -- received Rs 14 crore as loan from Union Bank of India, Chennai, for starting production of vaccines on December 27, 2007.

As bank guarantee, the private company hypothecated its vials and other products, for which it had entered into a supply contract with BCG Vaccine Lab, Chennai, a PSU under Health Ministry. This shows that the PSU facilitated procurement of the loan for a private competitor.

It is well known in Tamil Nadu's political circles that Ramadoss and the Green Signal Bio Pharma owners are close. The company's chairman and managing director, P Sundaraparipooranan, is a politician-turned-businessman. The company was registered in November 2005 but it decided to get into vaccine production only in December 2007, when Ramadoss banned the three Central PSUs. [link]

This has been going on for a while. As it happens, in India, a lot of vaccine is produced by PSU units. The units have been under constant scanner from the WHO, which claims they do not meet standards. Now, we are no big fans of public sector units, but up until now there were no issues with the product. As a matter of fact, the units failed only in the documentation part of the standards, while doing a pretty good job in process and production. After all, the products were administered to hundreds of millions of babies, perhaps many of the readers of this blog too.

Dr. Ramadoss, who didn't make a peep from 2004-07 suddenly shows great concern for vaccine quality in '08. Well, he was too busy trying to oust Dr. Venugopal. Almost simultaneously, the secular media starts singing the vaccine death chorus. Meanwhile Ramadoss' cronies get lucrative contracts, health ministry initiated bank loans etc. PSUs, which have been producing vaccine for Indian babies for decades are shut down all of a sudden.

The funny thing is, India still imports a lot of vaccine from China and as you know, China does not believe in inspection by the WHO.

Kannadigas: Good or bad?

You could be a Kannadiga yourself but the odds are somewhat low. Surely you know some Kannadigas? Perhaps your boss is a Kannadiga. Maybe you have friends or neighbors from the state.

In any case, the question that must be burning in your mind is, are Kannadigas good or bad? For instance, Gujaratis are bad. Plenty bad. After the last assembly elections the Gujaratis proved how insensitive they are, all they care about is "Dharma and Dhandho", as Shankarshan Thakur of Tehelka informed us. Many editorials expressed dismay about the moral decay of Gujaratis. Likewise, we came to know from an ecstatic Sagarika Ghose, Goans are very good. But, how about Kannadigas?

Unfortunately you have to wait a few days yet to know the answer. Going by some of the scenarios being charted out by pollsters, the time may never come and we may end up with a hung assembly. In the somewhat likely scenario of a Cong-JD(S) alliance, plenty of editorials will inform you how good Kannadigas are. CNN-IBN will carry specials on Kannada cuisine, the serene beauty of Bangalore etc.

In the somewhat unlikely scenario of BJP coming to power (the once bitten twice shy party has vowed not to form an alliance this time), prepare for an avalanche of editorials informing you that Kannadigas can no longer be trusted. Sagarika Ghose will write blogs. A.G. Noorani will do a psychoanalysis in the historical context and prove that the concrete jungle is creating havoc in the minds of an otherwise peaceful people. Arundhati Roy will hatch conspiracy theories and offer how the mindless urbanization is displacing people and creating trouble, because after all, everything is a problem of "displacement", including throwing Taslima Nasreen out of the country.

In any case, the first phase is over. CNN-IBN has not published an exit poll survey yet, while almost all major newspapers have predicted a lead by BJP. We are also breathlessly waiting for CNN-IBN to do a report on the criminal past of candidates for the second phase of the poll. We do not have too much hope though, because as you know, it could be a generic problem. They just ran a generic story (since the richest candidate turned out to be secular) about too much money flowing in the elections and managed to bring up Bangaru Laxman in that context!

The Global Food Crisis

A quick search on google on "the global food crisis" yields a surprising number of special features by leading newspapers. The feature on The Washington Post was very comprehensive. Check out this interactive on the presumed causes and effects.

Meanwhile, while the Indian media has run stories on inflation (more on it on the ext post), they have not run alarmist stories on the impending crisis. As they say, this is the silly season of political news coverage as far as India goes. In 2004, all stars were strangely aligned. Both India and US had general elections. Secular media in both countries wanted the incumbent out. It created a unique synergy, a never before seen blitzkrieg of coverage which spelled doom for the world and great misery for the hapless public.

Most unfortunately, this time around the US and Indian elections are out of sync. So while the US (and global) media is showing scary statistics, the Indian media's response has been muted. Hence no special shows on global food crisis.

CNN-IBN ran a few pretty weird shows on inflation. One of them exhorted the rich people in India to consume less so the grain prices come down. Most surprisingly the montage of Indian companies shown at the beginning of the program had the Infosys headquarters as the very first image, with a stern voice over indicting rich people in India for consuming too much. Narayana Murthy is not the richest man in India by miles, but for obvious reasons draws the most flak. Perhaps if his family consumes less sambar, prices of pulses will come down.

The BIFR route to prosperity

India's corporate bankruptcy laws are fairly strange - basically companies are not allowed to die and in the rare cases when they eventually close down, they are denied a decent burial. The agency that deals with corporate bankruptcies is the BIFR. The philosophy behind corporate bankruptcy laws differ from country to country. In the US for instance, very few companies actually liquidate. Most undergo restructuring, trying to recover as much of the senior debt as possible. In the UK, most cases end in liquidation and fire sale.

In India, the companies must continue to exist even at a great economic cost, but not a single employee must be fired. That forms the basis of BIFR actions. The combination of a mostly state controlled banking system and labor laws, BIFR etc. makes for a most potent playground for crony capitalists.

Consider the recent scandal involving shipping and transportation minister T. R Baalu. While people endlessly debated the involvement of the PMO, it was conveniently forgotten that Baalu's two companies were nothing but major league scams. The key thing here is that Ballu's companies defaulted a Rs 4.35 crore loan from IDBI and a Rs 1.93 crore loan from IFCI. One of the companies is a sick unit under - you guessed it, BIFR! Baaluji has suddenly developed a huge concern for shareholders and employees, who will suffer if these porkers are closed down.

There is no official estimates of how many such cases exist. Many politicians run companies, often taking loans under dubious pretexts from state run banks. The companies are dead from the get go. The hapless taxpayers foot the bill.

Baalu has now fallen back on the tried and tested communal vendetta angle. Unfortunately this report proves to be a huge dampener.

Meanwhile the PMO and the Petroleum minister are acting innocent, as they say, the gentlemen doth protest too much:

The Petroleum Ministry had restored gas supply in January to King India Chemicals Corp—one of the two firms for which Union Shipping and Surface Transport Minister T R Baalu was pulling strings—but it quietly withdrew the order last Monday after the Opposition badgered the government on misuse of office.

While a din was being raised for the third consecutive day in Parliament on April 28, Under Secretary K K Sharma of the Petroleum Ministry wrote to GAIL (India) Ltd’s CMD that the letter dated January 4 asking GAIL to supply natural gas to KICC "is hereby withdrawn".
[link]

The dark side of CNN-IBN

The Karnataka assembly elections is turning out to be a huge bore. There are no burning issues being debated. The drama surrounding the failed alliance of BJP and JD(S) and the subsequent betrayal by JD(S) has gone stale.

For their part, all the parties have announced massive largesses. We liked the Congress manifesto, why work when you can vote for Congress?

So far, the secular media didn't have too much headroom to play. CNN-IBN made a mild attempt to add a communal spin earlier. Today they seemed to have struck gold:

Forty seven candidates with criminal records are present in the electoral fray for the first phase of elections in Karnataka being held on May 10, an organisation said.

Among the major parties, the BJP has 12 candidates with criminal records, BSP nine, the Congress 10, JD(S) 13, JD(U) and Samajwadi party and Kannada Chaluvali Vatal Paksha (KCVP) one each, the NGO which conducted the study, Association for Democratic Reforms, said. [link]

So far CNN-IBN never really paid any attention to the ADR election watch report, because in most cases it makes Congress look pretty bad. During the last Gujarat assembly elections, this statistic didn't even find a passing mention in the newspaper. As luck would have it, Congress narrowly beats BJP (10 versus 12) in the number of candidates with criminal past, in Karnataka. The item was the lead story on the site for almost half a day.

Also note the convenient alphabetical ordering of the parties.

The report then suddenly takes a detour into irrelevant editorial comments, thus burying the other related stats:

There are 14 candidates who have declared assets of over Rs 30 crore, of this five are from BJP, seven from Congress, and two from the JD(S), he said.

Candidates who have "high assets" between Rs 5 crore and Rs 30 crore exist in all the parties. The BJP has 14, BSP nine, INC 21, JD(S) 19, Sastry stated.

There are 33 candidates who have declared very low assets of Rs one lakh or less. The BJP has one, BSP 11, INC two, JD(S) two,JD(U) five and SP 12.

Keep in mind these stats are only for the first phase of the election. We will be curious to see what the stats for the other two phases look like.

Shocking

Jolting his own party in the run-up to the Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir, Congress MP from Jammu-Rajouri Madan Lal Sharma has alleged that two senior state party leaders, including Assembly Speaker Tara Chand, escaped arrest in the Srinagar sex scandal probe "only because of the intervention of Congress president Sonia Gandhi and Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad".

Sharma made these allegations at Sunday’s public rally in Akhnoor. Though today he was disowning his own remarks, he told the gathering in Akhnoor that "he (Sharma) fell at the feet of Sonia Gandhi and Ghulam Nabi Azad" and "saved Tara Chand and (then Pradesh Congress Committee chief) Peerzada Mohammad Sayeed" from arrest. He even said these leaders should have been behind bars like Pappu Yadav. [link]

The story vanished from CNN-IBN home page faster that you can say "secular". No special shows either.

Look who is more "liberal"

Between 1999 and 2003, there was not one case of Fulbright visa rejection. No scholar was asked by the NDA government to change his or her research subject except one in 2003-04. Even that was more semantic than anything else: New York scholar Rachel J Anthes changed her subject from "From sacred whore to sex worker" to "The Sacred Feminine." And she was allowed to do research in the institution of her choice, Sanskriti Pratishthan, New Delhi. US officials say that visa clearances came within the stipulated time-frame of three months or, at worst, four months.Some of the subjects that the NDA raised no objections to: study of Hindu religious reform movement, ethics of religion and politics, local roots of religious nationalism, Brahma Kumaris and globalisation, religion in campuses, labour diaspora in the Middle-East and Brahmin authority and patronage.

In sharp contrast, between 2004 and 2007 during the UPA regime there have been 23 rejections, delays have ranged from eight months to 21 months. Subjects the UPA government didn’t allow include Left politics in Maharashtra, Islamic feminism, Muslim women’s perceptions of the role of women in society, ethno-botany in India; the many faces of Meenakshi temple, language ideologies in Mumbai schools and even a film on the life of a Muslim girl. Rejected, 10 scholars didn’t bother to re-apply, seven are still waiting for the government’s approval after they changed their subjects.

Said then HRD Secretary S C Tripathi: "We believed there was no need for Intelligence Bureau to clear Fulbright scholars." So on content, too, official records show that unlike in the UPA regime, the NDA wasn’t playing the thought police. [link]

Do as we say, not as we do.

A strange move by the Election Commission

The Aam Aadmi friendly Congress has made a total volte face in their stand about inflation. During the NDA regime, minor spikes in price would have the secular leaders crying from the rooftops. Take the Chidambaram bugger for instance. During 2006 he was regularly making comparisons with inflation figures of NDA era.

Apparently the rules have changed, you can't politicize inflation. If the Election Commission has its way, you can't even talk about it:

As the campaign for the state elections kicks off, the BJP has claimed that the Election Commission has unfairly asked it to change a TV campaign advertisement. The ad features leader Sushma Swaraj speaking in Kannada, blaming the Congress and the Central Government for rising prices.

The party says the EC has beeped out all references to the Congress and the centre in the ad. The ad has been released with the beeps on local Kannada channels. "If Shrimati Sushma Swaraj in her message through television and other commercials is to be prevented from exercising her right to a free and legitimate political debate, then action by EC is constitutional monstrosity," says Arun Jaitley. [link]

Talking about rules, apparently the UPA is also contemplating changing the way inflation is reported. They will make the 2003-04 as the baseline and also change the way the index is calculated. See, no inflation!

The move by EC is unprecedented and completely without any basis. Inflation is an election issue in all major democracies. After GDP growth and Aam Aadmi related issues, this is the biggest political talking point. It is preposterous to suggest that inflation is not related to Government policies (apparently it was, during NDA regime).

Something tells us that this is somehow related to the appointment of M. S. Gill, former chief election commissioner as a cabinet minister. This is perhaps EC's way of saying thanks.

Meanwhile, you can't talk about terrorism, you can't talk about growth (doesn't trickle), you can't talk about infrastructure (non-Agriculture), you can't talk about education (there is reservations) ... and now, please don't mention price rise.

One Billion Trees

The United Nations One Billion Trees campaign.

There is unrest in the forest,
there is trouble with the trees,
for the maples want more sunlight
and the oaks ignore their pleas ....

- from Trees, Rush (YouTube)

Punchline

So, the fair and neutral news channel and winner of several awards, CNN-IBN, decides to publish a scathing story on the Prez son protocol breach scandal.

Headline: Exclusive: The inside story of Prez son's detour

Doesn't seem to provide any new info. The punchline?

For the Opposition, the detour has come in as a handy ammunition to hit out at a President who didn't have their backing during the elections.

The President's family vacation

Our beloved President concluded her maiden foreign trip a few days ago. Sure, there were gaffes, but we believe people were too harsh in their judgment. So what if no one turned up to listen to her speech? So what if she forgot to salute the Mexican flag? Shit happens. Bad things happen to good people. All the time.

Unfortunately, people just can't seem to let it go. According to reports, the president's son, who accompanied her as a VVIP, went AWOL from the trip on a personal business. Later he explained, it was in connection with some educational institutes that he runs in India. Apparently he was scouting for international tie ups.

Later he denied that he broke protocol. Soon after, the Government also denied that the President's son had broken any protocol. Finally the Government said it wasn't even a breach of protocol.

"My presence was not required at the official meetings. And moreover, it was just a two-hour flight," Shekhawat told agencies in Mumbai, adding that he had gone at his 'own expense'. "In my spare time in Mexico, I could have gone shopping but I chose to visit the nearby US educational facility which has given rise to such reports," he said. "I visited the university purely for academic purpose only from the point of view of knowing about their educational facilities," said Shekhawat who is associated with several educational institutions in Maharashtra.

It is not clear if Mr. Shekhawat paid for the foreign trip itself out of his own pocket, from his own admission, he simply had no reason to be part of the entourage. At this juncture, how Mr. Shekhawat came to be associated with several colleges in Maharashtra will remain a purely academic exercise.

[Image key here]

Whitewashed

BHOPAL: The house was whitewashed, the food ready, the charpoy laid out, but the guest gave it a miss.

Pramila Kumre, an anganwadi worker in Abaadipura village of Hoshangabad district, was left disappointed on Sunday night as Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, who was to eat and stay at her house, changed plans and spent the night at a government rest house.

The leader was apparently annoyed at the arrangements to make his stay comfortable and left in a huff. Sources in the Congress said he was angry that the party's local unit had whitewashed houses in the village, renovated Pramila's house and bought a mattress for Rahul's comfort. But the Gandhi scion told the state Congress bosses that he could do without these facilities, a source said.

Pramila had been preparing for the VVIP visit since Saturday. An NGO in Hoshangabad had approached her to open her house for the AICC general secretary and the high-profile state Congress delegation with him. She was told to clean her house and make a bed appropriate for the Congress general secretary to sleep on.

No doubt she was thrilled. While her house was decked up for the occasion with ceramic tiles on the floor and new commode and cistern in her bathroom, her mother-in-law got busy since Sunday morning, preparing raw mango and tomato chutney, makke ki roti , lentil and rice for Rahul. [link]

Poverty fetish.

Gimme an S, gimme an O ..... catch a Hindu by the toe

Do you believe corruption is bad? Now do you really? Well, think again.

As they say, there are three sides to every story.

First, the CNN-IBN version:

BJP leaders raise stink over IPL cheerleaders

New Delhi: IPL is in the midst of a controversy, but the latest storm has got nothing to do with cricket. It's all about the cheerleaders who are now being caught in a moral debate between Maharashtra's politicians.The state's BJP says that the cheerleaders are no better than bar dancers. In fact, BJP Maharashtra President, Nitin Gadkari raised the matter in the state Legislature, saying that the Maharashtra government has double standards.

He wanted to know why the state government banned bar dancers but allowed cheerleaders on the cricket field.

Now, The Pioneer version:

It all began with [BJP MLA] Gadkari [...], Mehtre of the Congress went to town dubbing the acts of cheerleaders at T20 cricket matches as "obscene" and saying that the IPL tournament organisers had not taken permission to cheerleaders' dances, that the State Government would initiate whatever action that could be taken under the laws of the State, and that if necessary, it would approach the Centre in this regard.

Talking to mediapersons outside the State Legislature, Mehetre said, "The dances by cheerleaders after every four or six are vulgar. We live in India. We don't live in a foreign country. Cricket is watched by entire family, including women and children, and they might find it offensive. Gadkari had raised the matter on Wednesday, and we will look into it."

Interesting headline that one - BJP leaders raise stink. Well, the slightest whiff of BJP involvement is enough to send the secular media into a tizzy while they have no problem inhaling the massive emissions of corruption. No special shows on that one.

We agree that India badly needs foreign pompom gals, at the very least so our beloved film stars get their money back. CNN-IBN ran at least half a dozen stories covering this topic. They ranged from the pain vanilla reporting to editorials and blogs. They also had special shows. This will surely not be the last we hear about it.

Interestingly, the West Bengal Government has also made a move to ban the "vulgar" shows. No communal folks there though.

We are willing to bet the show will go on. The IPL league has full secular support and the blessings of our Union Minister for Agriculture. We make a solemn appeal to the esteemed minister, please Sir, at least hold a few free shows in Vidarbha so the poor farmer dudes there get a little joy out of life before they knock back a gallon of pesticide.

Minister Baalu's gas problems

Union Shipping and Transport Minister and aspiring destroyer of the Ram Setu, Shri Baaluji, got into a bit of a jam when it was revealed in the parliament that he used his influence to make ONGC and GAIL to allocate gas to a company owned by his sons. The influence was peddled right from the PMO, which wrote no less than eight letters to this effect.

Surprisingly Cong mouthpiece CNN-IBN ran this as a lead story, albeit for a little while only to replace it with the IPL cheerleader story. The latter far more important story was reported in at least three articles, replete with hefty doses of BJP bashing. Admittedly CNN-IBN couldn't not run this and yet maintain the charade of neutrality.

The CNN-IBN coverage was more of a cover up considering the fact that they managed to scrub it down till it sounded no more sinister than daddy putting in a little word for junior.

The Pioneer coverage was more detailed.

First, let's get a minor item out of the way quickly, it appears that Mr. Baalu, in the fine DMK tradition, has at least two wives.

Incidentally, the two companies were also awarded gas from Kuttalam and Narimanam zones of the Cauvery Basin in 1998-98 but the allocation lapsed and the matter is now before Madras and Delhi High courts. The Petroleum Ministry submitted in the Delhi HC that Kings Power was allotted gas at Rs 654 per million metric standard cubic metre but they demanded the price to be reduced to Rs 250 per MSCM. The allotment was cancelled after three extensions when the company did not sign the final paper. Similarly, the allotment of the Kings Chemicals was also cancelled in 2002.

After the UPA came to power, the Surface Transport Minister asked the GAIL CMD on March 1, 2007 to direct ONGC to supply gas to his family's companies. But the Tamil Nadu Power Producers Association challenged the decision in Courts and got a stay against the allocation.

The Kings Chemicals had also defaulted Rs 4.35 crore loan from IDBI and a Rs 1.93 crore loan from IFCI.

As you can see, it does not get much better than this. State run banks make loans, cronies create bogus shell companies, the companies get preferential allotments from state run energy companies and then turn around, report a loss and default on the original loan.

The aam aadmi is left holding it in their hands, meaning the bill.

Meanwhile, Mr. Baalu reportedly kept shouting in the parliament, "What is wrong in it?"

"300 mn Indians untouched by economic growth"

... and your point is?

Congress *hearts* SP

Isn't that a cute picture? As we predicted long ago, Congress and SP finally came out in the open with talks of their alliance.

Recently Sagarika begum wrote on her blog:

[Matyawati's] actions have almost achieved the unthinkable: the Congress and the Samajwadi party inching closer together in an attempt to dislodge a "common enemy".

Why is this so unthinkable? These secular journos seem to dwell in an alternative universe. What do they think of the Congress party? Just because there are a few phoren educated dudes in designer suits does not make the party "sophisticated". Just look at who contests from Pandit Nehru's old constituency on a Congress ticket. Even in Gujarat Congress fielded the most number of criminals for the last assembly elections. This is hardly new for the party, they are known to gravitate towards the basest elements in politics.

We wonder where this puts the Bachchans.

Okay, here is the grossest item (clean chit to SIMI etc. notwithstanding) we heard about Amar Singh recently - if you know a better one, please post a comment. Recently, Amar Singh & Co. opened a women's college in UP and named it after Aishwarya. This was a bit surprising, protocol demands the college be named after Jaya or better still after the dearly departed Tejaji. But you could argue Aishwarya is more of a role model for young women these days. But here comes the shocker - Amar Singh built a new mansion for himself and also named it after Aishwarya!

Shocking.

A minor news item from J&K

Nitin Sharma, the Grandson of J&K Health Minister (who belongs to an UNKNOWN political party) was held during one of his Shah Rukh Khan moments (there can be only one Goonda here, and se moi). The bugger must be a regular menace around there, he was earlier arrested for molesting.

Read more here.

A saucerful of secrets

What a roller coaster ride the past few weeks were in terms of explosive stories coming out of India. First there was the farmer loan waiver and the resultant socialist euphoria, then the apex court's ambiguous judgment in favor of (primarily) caste based quotas. Mr. Advani's biography and Rushdie's latest novel were expectedly panned by intellectuals. First there was Tibet and now there is some very disturbing news coming from Nepal. Then Arundhati Roy started doing what she does best, by hijacking the Tibetan movement by deciding to participate in the parallel torch rally. Amid all this fuss, several news items that would have indeed made a huge splash at other times barely created a ripple, for instance the confessions of the Glasgow bomber's cousin.

Anyway.

The surprise news item of the week was of course Priyanka Vadera's out of the blue prison visit to her father's alleged assassin, a woman called Nalini. This was supposed to be a clandestine visit, only to be made public by an RTI petition.

One can not fault Mrs. Vadera for seeking a sense of closure from her family's tragedy. She herself has resolutely stayed away from politics. The intriguing part is that she reportedly asked Nalini about who was really behind the bombing attack. Suppose she found out? Would she change her mind and rejoin politics? We believe the answer is yes.

Unfortunately Nalini played the innocent victim who got taken advantage of, a first class economics graduate who wanted love even if it came from obvious loonies with high treason and bloody murder of top political leaders on their minds.

In any case, Mrs. Vadera came back home no wiser from the visit. Wish we could help, perhaps the answer may be closer to home than she might imagine.

A model for retail success

Management types will find the above model familiar. See if you can explain the "Bombay Plan" using this model.

We will use this model extensively in future, so please take a moment to review it.

As you must have heard, after the initial fiasco with the organized grocery stores, the retailers are trying an innovative approach. They are now no longer trying to eliminate the middle layer. This is understandable since the food supply chain brings strong profits for our politicians. As a quid pro quo, FDI will be restricted.

Bad behavior

New Delhi: After being offloaded from a flight last week for being late, an internal inquiry by Air India has found that Muslim League MP from Kerala, Abdul Wahab entered the cockpit.

Air India sources say an internal inquiry has found that the Kerala MP Abdul Wahab had indeed entered the cockpit of the aircraft during his argument with pilot Rajat Rana.

This is a violation of aviation security rules, which stipulate that no one, not even flight attendants are allowed to enter the cockpit when the plane is below an altitude of 10,000 feet. [link]

India has a long tradition of tolerating and often rewarding bad behavior. At the same time no good deed goes unpunished.

The price inflation of sour cream and socialist lies

7.41%

That is the current level of inflation, as measured by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI).

This figure is publicly available and easy to calculate, check it out yourself here. The index was at 210.4 at the end of March, '07. The end of March figure for this year is 226. For some reason India uses the WPI for reporting as well as policy determination instead of the CPI, which usually clocks higher. The CPI for all of India as of Feb 2008 was 5.2%, while the levels might have been much higher at some places. For instance, 8.6% at Kolkata.

Even the US reports two figures, the core and headline inflation - while using the core CPI (which excludes fuel and food). Since fuel and food prices are more volatile, there is some merit in excluding them. Likewise you could argue that using the WPI instead of CPI lets policymakers filter out some noise due to local supply constraints. The point is we have always been using the WPI, starting from the beginning.

That changed during the NDA rule when the inflation suddenly made a nasty jump. Then we were told that the communal and aam aadmi unfriendly NDA Government was hoodwinking the public by using the WPI and that they were killing the poor. We were also told that inflation is totally the fault of the Government.

Fast forward to the UPA rule, we are still using the WPI. This time though, no socialist is seen shouting from the rooftop. Also, we are not supposed to politicize natural calamities like inflation over which Government has no control.

Usually high inflation spells doom for the ruling party but Arjun Singhji is attempting to turn this around in its favor. The apex court judgment didn't turn out to be the unambiguous victory for quotas as it seemed in the beginning. Once the dust settled, fine prints are now emerging and it looks like even the Government thinks that the creamy layer removal must happen unless they want to run afoul of the court. As it happens, the creamy layer is well defined by the NCBC. That doesn't prevent the UPA allies from pretending that the creamy layer is some bird that is yet to be discovered.

Arjunji is attempting a spin of his own. He claims that the income limit of Rs. 2.5 Lakhs must be revised upwards to adjust for inflation:

"It is for the government to decide and examine the criteria of the 93 order and if it needs to be reviewed because the conditions have changed over the years the prices have gone up. There is much difference between 93 and 2008," he said.

This is a blatant lie, the income level was not set at 2.5 Lakhs in 1993. In that year, the figure was 1 Lakh, which was revised upwards in 2004:

Note: ** The Income limit has since been raised from Rs. 1 lakh to Rs.2.5 lakhs w.e.f. 09.03.2004 vide DOP2T O.M, No. 36033/3/2004-ESTT(Res) dated 09.03.2004. [NCBC: Creamy Layer - scroll to the very end].

Even if you were to completely ignore the fact that setting the income level so high basically defeats the purpose, there is not much headroom in increasing the income cut off using this logic. The WPI has increased by a factor of 1.25 since March 2004, so the cut off gets bumped up to about 3 Lakhs.

We can only guess, but Arjunji will probably end up using the CPI this time, that too for the Kolkata metro area.

Quiz: OBC or not?

This is a serious quiz, we would really like to know.

Given what his known about his lineage, would he qualify for OBC quotas in any context?

The stupidity of hope

As we had predicted long ago, the OBC quotas in the centrally funded institutes finally received the blessing of the apex court. Let's try to see what this means in practical terms. Although there is talk of staggered implementation, let's assume within a couple of years this gets fully implemented.

There are about 20 - 30 million kids of college going age in India.
Out of which, about 12,000 rich OBC kids will get free seats in the centrally funded institutes.
Given the scant data that we have, perhaps about 30% of these kids would make it to these schools regardless.
So, about 8,000 kids will really get free seats.
These kids would anyway get a seat in a non-centrally funded institute, given that we have strong quota regimes already in place in most states, sometimes far in excess of the artificial 50% speed limit.

These 8,000 lucky kids are highly likely to have grown up in urban centers, gone to top schools in the city, played gulli ka cricket with any other kids from the neighborhood, owned a high-end mobile phone etc.

How exactly does this constitute social justice, can anyone explain to us in simple terms? No more than 2 minutes please.

We tried to go through the judgment transcripts linked by RealityCheck. Let's just say it's too much BS. One thing helps though, if you skip most of the judgment text right to the bottom, you will find the summary.

As we all know, neither the recommendation for the removal of creamy layer nor the suggestion to have periodic reviews will be taken seriously by anyone. Sixty years of experience tells us how this thing is going to pan out.

Needless to say, this doesn't stop here. That's not how these things work. The HRD department has already started work on another legislation to bring private institutes within the quota ambit.

Stay tuned for more updates and analysis.

Hygiene

"After returning from a Dalit's house to Delhi, Rahul Gandhi bathes with soap and purifies himself with incense," said BSP leader and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati at a public rally in Azamgarh in Uttar Pradesh.

This got CNN-IBN's Sagarika Ghose so worked up that she wrote a whole new post about it. As usual, the thing got mindbogglingly confusing after the first para or so.

Hope this will teach them not to throw around terms like casteist, racist, communal etc. so casually.

What could go wrong?

A former chief election commissioner is being offered a cabinet post.

Suckers

So, people from our friendly neighborhood Bhutan got their day in the Sun as they lined up to cast their votes in the first ever elections held in the country. Given the stellar record of democracy in the region, it is anybody's guess how this thing is gonna pan out.

Not long ago, our grandparents had a similar experience. Many had perhaps expected that their grandkids would grow up in a land free of dogma and arbitrary rules, most of all free from feudal lords. Alas, that was not to be. About six decades later, true democracy still eludes us, and how! The most telling failure of our democracy is the complete selling out of our "intellectuals".

People from Bhutan, if you are reading this, time for you to go back to your history and sociology books and dig up every differences that you can. Dig up tales of historic oppression, fancy folklores of invasion, however tenuous. Democracy can be fun too, only if you know how to play it.

Rahul Gandhi wins the US Democratic Primaries

New Delhi: Spontaneous celebrations broke out on the streets of the capital today as the news of Shri Rahul Gandhi's win in the democratic primaries reached here. The revelers were smearing each other with leftover gulal from the Holi festival.

A socialist intellectual, who didn't want to be named, said, "We always knew this would happen. We started calling ourselves liberals from last year. Now it is vastly easier to internalize articles straight from the American political press. "

Party spokesman Mamu Phirbhi described this as a "historic victory" and that "communal forces have been defeated".

Rahul Gandhi's victory doesn't seem all that surprising, given that he was endorsed by such favorites of the left as ex-British PM Tony Blair. Political analysts expressed their opinions at the dramatic turn of events. "You could say this was that last, the final desperate push that dilates the sphincter and releases the stuff with great force. Now, globally speaking, it is the same shit all over. ", commented one analyst.

The bitter tears of Taslima Nasreen

"Chamber of death", "harassment", "mental torture", "extreme stress", "worse than religious fundamentalists" [link] - these aren't some of the keywords and phrases you would normally expect from a writer-in-exile when she describes a secular country in which she sought shelter after being driven out from her own.

But then again, very little is normal about India's peculiar situation. We have been following the ideologies our intellectuals have been shoving down our throats for some sixty years now. We were told in no uncertain terms that much of India's malaise derives from religious fundamentalists (of a particular religion). The rest of the problems could be pinned on our not accepting socialism.

As a result, for sixty years, we did not see much progress, either in our outlook or our economic situation. Until quite recently, top professionals of the country could only aspire for a motorcycle. Cars were meant only for the mysteriously rich - or politicians and their flunkies, sometimes civil servants. That too only one model, an ugly metallic hump rolling over the natural bumps that passed for roads.

This was apparently alright. Don't believe us? Look at the editorials and newspaper articles from the 70s and the 80s. This was too funny, in those days newspaper men used to be rich in relative terms. Many would spend their vacations abroad. The "intellectuals" would get academic assignments in foreign universities. But for some reason, their articles always said it was much better not to succumb to the decadent western ways. Russia was much better (although their kids went to schools in UK or US, never Russia, language barrier perhaps?).

Also, by electing a secular Government year after year, we were guaranteeing ourselves an elevated stature in terms of human rights, liberal mindset, intellectual outlook, religious tolerance - all of the above.

After narrowly escaping the sensitive people in her own country, Taslima Nasreen spent some days in Europe. She didn't quite feel at home there. So she moved to Calcutta, allegedly among the most enlightened places in India, that too ruled by the most liberals. She was happy, Calcutta was culturally familiar, she made friends. Poor Taslima Nasreen. Perhaps she got taken by the India Shining campaign too. She completely missed the rot beneath the superficial gloss.

Well, the tumor that lurks beneath finally got her. Seriously ill and mentally exhausted, Taslima had to leave for Europe. Her heart broken and her dreams shattered.

Long tailed losses

Long tailed losses tend to make a monkey out of everyone, every once in a blue moon. These are remarkable times. The next decade is going to be tough.

Commentator reason pointed out that ICICI was not obligated to report their derivative exposure to the US sub prime crisis and it was only in response to a question in the Rajya Sabha that their losses came to light. India's accounting laws may be a bit archaic and perhaps do not require periodic marking to market for complex derivative instruments. By itself this may not be of concern for two reasons. First, most emerging economies have gotten their acts together after the spate of crisis in the 90s. They are quite conservatively leveraged, the central banks ensure lots of buffer. Second, even with all sorts of safeguards, banks can and will commit financial seppuku from time to time.

It looks like in the next decade we are going to see a global socialist surge. If the US gets a hard landing and a democratic president, expect some tough laws. China has been playing nice so far, post Olympics it will start acting its usual aggressive self. The west will start cozying up to it, while they clean up their financial mess. Perhaps Arab street will own much of Wall street, which means bigger influence on Washington. Meanwhile bit players like Hugo Chavez will start flexing their muscle, just like our domestic commies. People will see which horse is strong and flock in large numbers to the relevant camp.

Free Tibet

Bring down the wall

Violence

A 10-year old boy was brutally assaulted and burnt alive by a crowd at a village near outer Delhi. A casual survey of news headlines shows that violent incidents such as this are par for the course, almost for the entire nation. Occasionally a particularly gruesome incident captures people's imagination.

Yet the media is on a concerted effort to prove that Gujarat and Bihar lead the way in violence. There have been a lot of coverage for certain incidents in Gujarat, especially sexual assault related crimes. Never mind that the Kerala politician sex scandals never see much attention. Even horrific crimes such as the gang rape of about a dozen Girijan women by cops in Tamil Nadu never made it to the breaking news category.

Right now of course, the attention is focused on Goa, where a teenage British girl was treated like a half eaten salami sandwich by a couple of bartenders. The picture of Goa that emerges is pretty sordid, a haven for hippies, junkies and trailer trash crowd from the West and a local crowd quite eager to exploit whatever these tourists are worth. Contrast this with the picture CNN-IBN editor Sagarika Ghose painted on her blog following BJP's defeat in the last assembly elections in Goa.

The point is, the aam aadmi (in this context anyone who can not afford private security forces or taxpayer funded security cover) is a sitting duck in most of India, not just the Naxal infested areas. Women have no safety in throbbing business centers in India's metros. The outcome of road accidents is determined by whether you were travelling in the car with a higher number of passengers. Then of course, we have those never ending stories of cyber crime (a recent report pegs it at a whopping $40B), stalking, extortion, loot, murder, kidnappings, not to mention activities of freedom fighters. If you survive all this, you may yet become collateral damage from political violence, as people with certain politicial affiliations are finding out in Kerala.

India's police infrastructure is not just inadequate, it is a joke. This will likely remain so, unless our politcians figure out a way to provide enhanced police coverage to targeted groups. An attempt has been made by enacting special laws (such as atrocities act, laws that supposedly protect women etc.), but they are clearly not working.

Don't hold your breath though, things are not likely to change anytime soon. You better make sure the doors are bolted tight while you watch our FM dole out tens of thousands of crores on prime time TV.

Two babies

NEW DELHI: Two nurses were arrested on Thursday in connection with the death of a five-day-old baby girl kept in an incubator of a government-run hospital. [...] The incident took place early morning on Wednesday following a short circuit and the baby was charred to death. [...]. Admitted to the hospital since March eight, the baby had been kept in the incubator as she had contracted jaundice and was under-weight. [link]

AHMEDABAD: The Gujarat government has formed a three-member inquiry committee to probe into an incident in which a three-day-old baby was charred to death in an incubator following a short circuit at the Shardaben hospital. [...] After the inspection of equipment by the experts, they will be reutilised, an AMC official said. The baby died at the city hospital during early hours on Wednesday when the incubator caught fire due to a short-circuit. [link]

Now, that would have to be one heck of a coincidence and an extremely tragic one too. Of course the respective Goverment agencies are running their own investigations. There is no indication that this coincidence was noticed, at least till the last time we checked the news.

If you happen to know someone connected to the medical profession or from the health department, please bring this to their attention.

The state of TalibaNadu vs. freedom of art

RealityCheck reports:

Its that time of the year again. Wine sipping, art-for-arts sake loving journalist types, have to just lie low and stay quiet for a while. It seems we cant paint mughal emperors in India - unless the painting glorifies them. No goons wont attack you, the government will shut down the entire exhibition. [link]

The paintings in question depict the historically accurate demolition of Hindu temples (a process nowadays known as secularism) during the time of Mughal Emperor Aurangzeb.

This incident did not attract much coverage. Compare and contrast with the Baroda MS University fiasco (thousands of reports, articles, editorials, blogs, TV shows that continue till today).

A bad melodrama

So tired
Tired of all this drama
You go your way
I go my way
I need to be free

No more pain No more drama in my life
(Popular song by American Hip Hop artist Mary J. Blige)

This drama-baazi has been going on for far too long now. One instant they are willing to sacrifice the Government for the Nuclear deal, the very next they have to save the Government. The Left has served as Congress' useful idiot for a long time, this is a well known fact. But right now there are important things to take care of, such as governance, social justice etc.

Can you believe these idiots? This type of thing is hard to pull off without the full complicity of the mainstream media and India's self styled intellectual crowd. Just imagine the uproar and indignation it would cause if it happened between BJP and one of its allies.

Prepare for double digit inflation next year

Even before secular mediamen had an opportunity to wipe off the froth of excitement from the corner of their mouths after the Railway Budget, our Harvard educated FM announced a stunner of a budget. The Rs. 60,000 crore (about $15B) farmer loan waiver package still remains the talk of the town and likely to remain so, perhaps for years.

RealityCheck and Offstumped addressed some of the immediate problems with this budget, as indeed countless other blogs and editorials.

Yet, no one is talking about what this whopper of a loan waiver can do to our economy. In terms of size, this is about half of the income tax receipt. Naturally the provisions to fund this has been kept off budget. The details will be worked out by June.

The biggest problem of this waiver is perhaps the crude setback this will cause to farmers' insurance programs. To put it most charitably, we do not have adequate farmer insurance infrastructure. Some banks do provide coverage for crop damage due to flood, drought, mice etc. by charging an extra premium. By announcing this ad hoc relief, this waiver will throw insurance schemes totally out of gear. Not only that, it will wipe out historical credit data, thus making it impossible to rationalize premiums.

If the waiver itself is big, the problems are exacerbated by the current world macro-economic context. Some other factors unique to India make it even worse.

With the US financial market in free fall, Ben Bernanke is all set to announce rate cuts on March 18, perhaps by as much as 50 basis points. India's interest rates are already overdue for a cut. At a first glance, it seems to be the right thing to do, but it actually worsens the situation. The interest rate differential attracts FDI and private transfers. These transfers are huge.

We have the pay commission coming in. Coupled with the tax bonanza, our consumers will be flush with extra cash to spend.

Then we have the NREG scheme, which amounts to about Rs. 16,000 crore. So far the scheme has been an almost total failure, adding just froth.

The FM has refused to divulge any details of how the waiver itself will be handled. There is talk of bonds, which will invariably add upward pressure on the real interest rates. The waiver will have a multiplier effect on the liquidity situation. Ordinarily, these loans would be written off as NPAs and show up on the income statements as losses. Now, the banks will get straight capital, which has the potential to add X times one over the cash reserve ratio to the market.

The inflationary pressures on Rupee are already showing up, it ended up weaker against the dollar. Inflation is clocking at 4.89 precent, already up from lows of below 3. This is just the WPI which has a decidely downward bias.

The FM is essentially betting on one of two things. Either he believes that the downward pressure on growth will be so large that extra momentum is necessary even at the cost of inflation. This is essentially a bet on the middle class professional or aspiring to be professional crowd. This could also be an indicator that the export job losses due to a stronger Rupee are significant and not mere propaganda by our industry lobby. If this is the case, the FM perhaps wants to induce inflation, bring the Rupee up to 45 to the dollar, aggressively import food grains and hope for a rebound. Alternately the FM is betting on the fact that inflation is a lagging indicator. By the time the waiver is worked in and all the factors set in, it will be late in the year.

In the latter case we will likely see the general elections happen later this year.

Privatize the Indian Railways

Come to think of it, Laloo is the only minister in the UPA cabinet who gets any amount of coverage in the context of the work he is supposed to be doing. Of course, right now the budget is the biggest news and our FM has a field day. Setting aside these two, no one else is visible. The home minister dude sulks in the background, his only function being providing transport to Mrs. Sonia Gandhi. The Agriculture Minister, supposedly the most important cabinet position responsible for the livelihood of at least 60% of the population, is busy playing cricket. Dr. Ramadoss keeps making the headlines for the wrong reasons. Arjunji may soon get the boot, Rahulji is not happy with him.

Bihar CM and ex-Railway minister from the NDA days, Nitish Kumar, keeps claiming that he deserves some credit for the railway turnaround story. Indeed, reformist measures have a nasty habit of showing up in the numbers much later. For instance, the current bullish trend of high GDP growth rate certainly set in during the NDA tenure, although it has made our current FM a superstar of sorts.

Back to the railways story. From this KPMG report, it does not look like Laloo achieved any dramatic improvement above the trendline. Significant improvements in the wagon turnaround etc. had already taken place. The operating ratios etc. have indeed improved, thanks mostly to accounting tricks. As you can see, freight revenue is increasing at a high rate and contributes more than two thirds of total revenue. Freight rates have been reduced, the extra revenue realization comes from wagon overloading, which according to Nitish Kumar, was made possible by some of the infrastructure upgrade tasks undertaken during his tenure.

Even after all these supposed improvements, our rail freight rates remain among the highest in the world. Some of the value added services are entirely missing. Laloo talked about private-public partnership in his budget speech. One only hopes that he puts the concept into practice, although he may not really have much time left before his tenure runs out.