Rorschach Test

As they say, it ain't over until the fat lady sings. Well, Madam Suzanna Roy has written her essay in Outlook and the issue isn't quite over yet. So, we are likely to have lots of Cashmeriat on the headlines in the coming days.

By now, both the blogosphere and the media are chock-full with ideas and opinions. People have actually conducted opinion polls. Unfortunately, these latest polls didn't outright liberate Kashmir, like the CNN-IBN SMS poll did.

This time Madam didn't create two versions like she did for her Free Afzal essay - one for the domestic and the other for the international audience.

A sudden twist of fate, an ill-conceived move over the transfer of 100 acres of state forest land to the Amarnath Shrine Board (which manages the annual Hindu pilgrimage to a cave deep in the Kashmir Himalayas) suddenly became the equivalent of tossing a lit match into a barrel of petrol.

Thank you for the Geo lesson. But do not, repeat do not, try the barrel thing at home. At the very least The Outlook could add an advisory.

This essay is the most transparently hateful agit-prop piece she has ever penned.

Her essay is basically a ballet of three parties - the "Deep Indian State", the "green flag" people and the "saffron flag" people.

The "Deep Indian" state is a monstrous machine with unimaginable powers. The Deep State is planning strategic massacres. Like they did in the past. The Deep State is a highly effective propaganda machine. The Deep Indian state has nameless leaders.

The "green flag" people are smiling, humorous with their catchy couplets, young, spontaneous, ecstatic. All their fears are true. They never indulge in propaganda or falsehood. The leaders of the "green flag" people (named in great detail) are nice quiet men and reluctant leaders who are pushed by the youthful mob on pedestals. Although they offer a vision of a monolithic religious state, it is most certainly a benign future. A small bargain to get away from the Deep State - and the "saffron flag" people.

The "saffron flag" people are dreadful propagandists prone to rumors and preparing to launch massive genocidal attacks (when they are not planning a demographic invasion). The less said about the "saffron flag" leaders (also named), the better.

This devil dance blurring reality, imagination and interweaving propaganda with scenario analysis, Suzanna Roy has delivered a stunning piece that will appeal to high school students and clueless international audiences. Perhaps that is the intention.

Ultimately it is all about religious propaganda, isn't it? Things like the Haywood case happens, and conveniently shoved under the carpet. Or is this another propaganda hatched by the "saffron flag" people? How about this murder then? Earlier when the Swami was attacked by a mob of dozens of armed people (who shouted - "our people are running the Government"), the seculars expressed skepticism. They mocked the smiling Swamiji on a hospital bed. See? A Hindu bugger has smiled! This time they have corpus delicti. Or is it also propaganda? How about this report?

If "green flag" people have a valid claim of demographic invasion and if they see it as a parallel to the "Israeli occupation", the "saffron flag" people have a concern we must pay attention to. Especially when it is so easy to see it as another attempt at colonization. This first one started this way too. You can not apply two different sets of standards. Hindus do not even have equal claim to resources. This came from the Prime Minister himself. Hindus need freedom from the seculars as much as Kashmiris need freedom from India.

Nations were almost never created by yearning for freedom. Nations are created by might. You can not obliterate several thousands years of history and take bits and pieces from contemporary history and claim Kashmiris have a valid claim for freedom. Half of world's population lives on land occupied by people they do not consider their own in private or sometimes in public. From Sudan (Darfur) to Turkey (Kurd) to Spain (Basque) to Sri Lanka (Tamil) to USA (Puerto Rico) - there are people under occupation. Actually people are under occupation in most European countries too. They are deeply dismayed by laws of these "Secular" countries which they claim suppress their "religious freedom". Did you say they voluntarily migrated? Since when did logic and reason start to apply in these cases?

Looking at the map once again, India has given up more than enough territory. Suzanna Roy has not framed the problem right. If Kashmiris want their freedom, they know what to do and they are welcome to do it. They even staged a full scale dress rehearsal.

Mamata: Way out of her strategic depth

So, the Tatas are now talking about pulling out of Singur. This is funny, last year, when at a New Delhi auto-expo the "high-tech" Nano was unveiled, Ratan Tata mocked Mamata by remarking that the Nano could be named after her.

It is interesting to note that today, the most important women politicians in India are Sonia Gandhi, Mayawati, Jayalalitha, Raje and to an extent Mamata. We will leave out Sangma because she is too young. Readers are encouraged to point out names we might have missed. Out of these, except Maya, all are "upper-caste". This fundamentally proves many of the points Chadrabhan Prasad has been making of late - that the "OBC" are the most deeply rooted in traditional Agrarian society where women get the worst deal.

In any case, it is pretty evident what is happening in the land acquisition issues. Punjab has been the most fair - crores have been paid to farmers in exchange for their lands. We welcome this, especially when puny flats in Bombay sell for a million dollars upwards. Elsewhere, starting from Chandigarh to TN, we basically see an orgy of land grab, often by dubious individuals with the aid of wily politicians.

Singur was not to be, the only reason for this weird choice was that the WB commies needed to project a progressive facade and at the time the Left was with the UPA Government. We discussed this before. Now that the Left has pulled out, there is zero reason for setting up the plant in Singur. So, we expect the Nano to roll out from another factory, elsewhere in India.

Assuming there are 100 victims, they could recompense each victim to the tune of Rs. 1 crore yet not make much difference to the Rs. 1,500 crore budget. Yet, Mamata failed to come out with any reasonable formula. Way out of her strategic depth, she did not take on any partner who could provide her with some tactical advice. She sensed an opportunity in Nandigram which blindsided her - in order to capitalize on both Singur and Nandigram she must shun BJP since she fell for the typical binaries of secularism and communalism. In the end she gains nothing. She will neither win the communist votes nor the minority votes. If the Tatas dump Singur, she will lose even "progressive" votes. The commies will gain a face saver.

Mamata also handed a good excuse to the Nano team on a platter. Never before in history was a product so universally praised even before a single end user got his hands on a real sample. Contrast this with the iPhone launch in India. The Nano is a dumb project - even before the design was hatched, executives were lined up in New Delhi begging for various subsidies and waivers. The few tax paying individuals of India mustn't only subsidize a profligate administration's Tughlaqian schemes such as free electricity, free loans, free employment and free college seats but now they will be forced to pay for their fellow citizens' rides.

Now when your shiny Nano breaks down for no reason, you will know who to blame.

Kashmir issue over, let's have another Junoon concert in Srinagar

As we mentioned in a previous post, one could clearly see a phoniness in the "Azadi" protests. It almost looks like the issue is resolved. The protesters in Kashmir have completely backed down and normalcy fully restored. Of course the intellectuals will continue to hyperventilate for weeks to come.

It was also abundantly clear that no political party would openly endorse the "idea of Kashmir". BJP never made any bones about it, Congress is trying to hedge. As we all know, the Kashmir issue seems like a "free agent" voter issue, as fine blogger RealityCheck would say. There is a slight difference though, from other free agent voter issues like the N-Deal. The free agent voters loved the N-Deal, cronies were delirious with joy while the masses were indifferent. But land is an emotive issue and easier to comprehend relative to nuclear reactors (although that will rapidly change once the land acquisition for the massive reactors including the large peripheral safety zones begins). The Kashmir issue is different. Free agent voters are divided, masses will totally hate losing territory and the cronies couldn't care less (if you have a personal Bombardier jet, you can vacation in Switzerland).

So. Congress is trying to hedge. As we saw earlier, they are non-committal about it on TV shows. In the CNN-IBN show, Abhishek Singhvi, aided by Sagarika Ghose (he got to have the last word) totally dodged the issue and instead utilized the time bashing BJP and PDP. Admittedly he got an earful from Mehbooba Mufti. For the mass media consumption however they are not being so fuzzy at all.

"She [referring to Suzanna Roy] is a loose cannon who has abused liberal traditions of India to its fullest," said Congress spokesperson Manish Tiwari. "It is a great tribute to the tolerance of India's ethos that a person who openly calls for Balkanization of country is not being locked up and the keys are not being thrown away," Tiwari told IANS . [link]

No ambiguities there.

But our intellectuals simply won't let go. The most comical was a letter a group of intellectuals wrote to the United Nations. It is as though India is doing a media blockade or something (Nazis!). Here we are, conducting SMS polls among citizenry on the issue on Prime Time TV! Azadi even won the poll! Do these people think they have more information than the UN? Or for that matter the Azadi people have any less access to the global body (they marched to the local UN office in Kashmir for God's sake!). This sort of gestures are made by people who way over estimate their self-worth.

Dirty tricks of Congress exposed!!!

Mehbooba Mufti of PDP, Arun Jaitley of BJP and Abhishek Manu Singhvi of Congress were brought together on the CNN-IBN Face the nation show. Funny that the idea of Azad Kashmir was put to plebiscite first to the rest of the nation (albeit an informal SMS poll). Watch the show to find out if Kashmir was liberated by the SMSers.

At a point in the show, Mehbooba Mufti exposed the dirty tricks Congress typically plays and most of us are well aware of.

Video segment 4:

[file footage]

Sagarika Ghose: Azadi Azadi Azadi ... [editorializes... turns to Jaitley]

[... leading question posed to Jaitley.... long response from Jaitley... turned over to Mehbooba Mufti].

Mehbooba Mufti: Well, Sagarika, where is the extremism? [...]

And I would like to tell Mr. Abhishek Singhvi, his... his... Secular National Party was scared shit to participate in the 15th August function here, they were busy displaying Trishuls and Swords along with the Sagharsh Smaiti in Jammu .. he should know that about his own party, before he points fingers at us. Yes we are for the resolution of Kashmir issue [...]

[our transcript]

At this point Singhvi's face resembled an over ripe mango flattened by a truck on a hot summer afternoon.

CNN-IBN transcript of the same:

Mehbooba Mufti Sayeed argued that the separatist protestors were not violent in any manner. They were going about peacefully and were not armed at all. That was in stark contrast to Congress workers, she pointed out. "The Congress party workers are too scared to celebrate Independence day in the Valley and were wandering about with tridents and swords with the Amarnath Sangharsh Samiti in Jammu," she said.

Someone should grab this video soon, before CNN-IBN edits it out.

[to be continued......]

If we did it

Just a few months ago, the Pakistani pop group Junoon held a concert in Kashmir, a historic first for a music event of this type. Who would have guessed there is so much latent passion for freedom among Kashmiri youth. Of course, the youth seen cheering here are almost certainly distinct from the youth attacking CRPF posts.

So far the media has responded to the Kashmir fiasco with hysteria, recycled paranoia, utter lies and criminal propaganda. Not a single secular intellectual has pointed his finger at the biggest villain in this drama - Mehbooba Mufti. By all indications Mufti and her party precipitated the crisis in the first place. She can not claim to want a peaceful resolution and then annihilate the state Government by pulling out support.

The PDP issue shows that dialog as a tool for conflict resolution breaks down miserably under certain circumstances. Before the conflict Kashmir was deemed to be a mix of pro-India and pro-Pak people and everything in between. Now it looks like it is a mix of a small number of undecided and a large number of pro-freedom. There is a reason the hardliner separatists did not want to participate in the elections. They didn't want to legitimize the "occupation". This is where Mufti dealt a body blow to the whole constitutional approach. She ate her cake and now holding it too and the rest of Kashmir is eating out of her hands.

So, the big question is should we let the inevitable happen and liberate Kashmir? At least three intellectuals have opined we should. S. Aiyar, Vir Singhvi and of course Suzanna Roy.

It does not look like the major political parties can make that call, unless it really escalates into an ugly imbroglio (say around 50,000 casualties etc.). While the protests do appear massive, primarily due to media overreach, we sense a phoniness here. Although the hardline separatist leader Geelani has proudly proclaimed himself to be a Pakistani and expressed his wish to join Pakistan, the other parties are much less enthused. Everyone appears to be hedging their bets. Omar Abdullah has threatened to resign but has not yet lent support to freedom, nor have the Conference leaders. While all the stakeholders have hardened their stands, no one appears to want to make the first call for a full scale rebellion.

Yet, the developments in Pakistan appear to be intimately linked to the Kashmir crisis. Now that Mushy is safely out the door, they are finally looking at a South Asian style competitive democracy. The Kashmir fever runs pretty high Pakistan plus they want to give us back our dues for liberating Bangladesh.

The most likely scenario thus is a joint effort by Pakistani democratic establishment and some separatist factions in Kashmir. In this way the "moderate" separatists (whatever that means) can avoid the risk of being seen as responsible for violence. There is a big opportunity here for Pakistan as well. Once Mushy is gone, they will require another bargaining chip against increasing US involvement. Russia will be more than willing to provide this support.

India needs to plan for this contingency. It would be good to put some ground rules in place. First of all, we get to keep Jammu and possibly Ladakh. Secondly, no more aid of any form to Kashmir, trade will be contingent on continuance of Yatra. India will not meddle in the inevitable Kashmiri civil war between pro-Pakistanis and pro-freedom people (or between any number of assorted power grabbers) nor should we deploy our army if any"tribal" invasion of Kashmir happens. It is highly desirable to have the population exchange on India's terms. Also - no infiltration.

Unfortunately, the most likely Indian response will be too muck it all up. They will react too late and end up giving massive aid to Kashmir. We will also end up losing Amarnath. Otherwise you will never hear the end of it from our bleeding heart liberals (who want to give away Kashmir in the first place).

Tehelka's criminal propaganda must stop! NOW!

Not long ago, there was this story of a man incarcerated in jail (in Assam I think), for several decades, without trial. It was apparently a case of bureaucratic bungling. Recently the photograph of a 14-year old teenager, whose murder caught the nation's attention for weeks, was plastered all over media - this case exposed how bizarrely inefficient our law and order administration is. This happened in the capital, by the way.

In this environment, it is extremely easy to pick out specific cases and make them appear like parts of a systematic whole. Tehelka mastered this technique long ago. Right about now they are very precariously perched on a weak ledge, their fall being fortuitously prevented by the chaotic overall situation in the country.

Their recent special issue on SIMI victimhood can only be called what it really is: dreadful criminal propaganda of a few brazen individuals. It is no coincidence that their purported 3 month long "fact finding" mission chillingly coincided roughly with the timespan of the three latest terror attacks, nor is the fact that the issue came out just prior to the apprehension of SIMI members by the Gujarat police an accident.

There is a case for publishing reports of police inefficiency and failures of the state. But Tehelka paints a picture in pure black and white tones, completely devoid of any shades of gray. In this version SIMI is an outfit of innocents merely caught at the wrong place at the wrong time. They had nothing to do with any of the past terror incidents. Will Tehelka be willing to write an affidavit for SIMI?

Tehelka has the highest density of Nazi references (also "Kafkaesque") of any other publication we know of. This becomes a little tiring at times.

The most troubling part is how the narrative has changed over the years. During the NDA years, it was easy to make a bleak and hopeless story and it would be utterly believable. The UPA regime clearly posed difficulties in spinning the web of lies. Of course the BJP ruled states were an easy target and received the most attention. So the attention was limited to encounter killing, the Gujarat riots aftermaths and the Naxalite related cases in Chattisgarh etc. Now gradually the the scope is being expanded to phenomenal limits - detention, trials or merely questioning suspects becomes gross and serious human rights violation. In many of the stories, atrocious things were done to them simply because the "victim" told them so. Well, here is news: perhaps as many as 90% police arrests in India do not follow procedures. People picked up for petty theft are perhaps subjected to third degree in every single case. The Tehelka wallahs know this very well, yet by applying western standards it is easy to paint a bleak picture of the system. While we are on that note, in UK, even downloading Jihadi material is deemed illegal. So, at least in the eyes of some "civil societies", the SIMI dudes are not that innocent. Oh, we forgot, Tehelka preempted that possibility also - aren't the Western societies the worst perpetrators?

So we end up with a fuzzy narrative in which the entire humanity is implicated. There is simply no model state, no model society. A group of people are being victimized. They have no hope and they looking at a very bleak future.

Yet this is the best strategy for winning minority votes. It should be obvious that optimism works for the incumbent while pessimism works for the challengers. That is true for majorities. For bringing the minorities to vote in large number, you need to show them hell, with no hope for redemption.

Tehelka is merely dishing out this hell in large servings lest the poor minority bugger got complacent into missing election day.

Aside:

There is some evidence that this sort of activism by the media and some politicians is seriously hampering investigations.

All ruling UP parties united in inaction?
Pervez Iqbal Siddiqui,TNN

LUCKNOW: Political parties, which ruled the state during the past decade, had contrasting political agendas. But when it came to terrorism, they stood united.They tackled the issue with kid gloves. And this for votebank politics. Reports are that when the Gujarat police contacted their counterparts in Uttar Pradesh seeking their assistance in picking up Abu Bashar — identified as SIMI's second-in-command after its jailed president Safdar Nagori — from his house in Sarai Meer locality of Azamgarh district, they got a cold response. So much so that the Gujarat police were forced to seek a court order to facilitate his arrest on Saturday.

This is not an isolated case in a state where former chief minister Mulayam Singh Yadav stubbornly refused to ban the SIMI despite mounting evidence of its involvement in terrorism. Earlier too, on July 26, barely an hour after the Jaipur police picked up one Abdul Mateen — a teacher at Madrassa Jamia-Asharfia in Madanpura locality of Varanasi — they were virtually forced to let him off on the intervention of the police top brass.

Additional superintendent of police (ASP) BS Meena, who was heading the Jaipur Police team, claimed that they had rounded up two suspects of the Jaipur blasts who had named Mateen as their aide. Still, the police team was not allowed to take him without a court order citing law and order crises after local residents in Varanasi took to the roads stating that Mateen had been kidnapped. As if this was not enough, Samajwadi Party MLA from Varanasi City (North) Abdul Samad and Varanasi Shaher Mufti Abdul Batin, even stood as guarantors to claim that Mateen would not escape and be available to the police for quizzing as and when required. The Jaipur Police were left with no option but to let go the suspect.

It is not only the Jaipur and Gujarat police who are pointing fingers at UP. Even the prosecuting agencies in the state too air somewhat similar views. "For instance, take the issue of the assistant district government counsel (ADGC) pursuing the case of Waliullah — the India head of HuJI who is in jail in connection with the Varanasi serial blasts and seizure of RDX from his possession.

The ADGC received threats from Waliullah's supporters who said: "Jab prashasan humari madad kar raha hai to tum zyada tezi kyon dikha rahe ho (When the government is helping us then why are you pursuing the case)," recollects a senior officer of the state's law department. According to him, the threat did not appear totally unfounded.

Waliullah was arrested on April 5, 2006, after RDX, arms and ammunition were recovered from him and later he reportedly confessed to having been behind the March 8, 2006 serial blasts at Varanasi. Despite Waliullah being such a big fish, the state government showed no urgency to expedite his trial. For over a year and a half now, the forensic reports of the RDX and the firearms recovered from Waliullah remained missing. This when the Forensic Science Laboratory (FSL) at Agra issued the certified report on August 1, 2006, itself. The report finally reached the court after TOI brought the issue to light. [link]

Have a nice day

We failed. Hope the next generation does better. Sorry for the mess we left behind.

India's real class divide (draft)

(Just putting down these ideas for later expansion).

Ramachandra Guha constantly laments that Indians do not take an interest in history. This is a very strange idea. For one thing, if the study of a subject involves evaluating alternate ideas and different takes, you are precisely not allowed to do that in India. Insofar as formal education system is concerned, one must be content with the hogwash that is fed in the name of history, from elementary school to history honors classes. Outside of the classroom, the nature of historical debate is evident. We all know what happened when Prof. Upinder Singh courageously presented an alternate version of history. Unknown forces brought pressure to bear upon her and afterwards she chickened out.

The point is, the true nature of our freedom struggle and how India came into being has never really been seriously discussed. The version that was fed to us, starting from the formation of the "Grand Old Party" to how the transition of power took place, is a figment of colonial imagination. Bits and pieces of historical accidents are tied together with untenable explanation. A fine assortment is seen in Guha's famous book, India after Gandhi.

It is hard to find an example of a country where after the imperialistic/oppressive forces left, the whole bureaucracy, academia and armed forces establishment (also business) was kept intact. We are not saying this is bad per se. This is also just, if you really want to go ballistic on a part of your population just because they "cooperated" with the colonials, you ought to give them prior notice. But this warning was not given and it was well accepted that India would not erupt into a xenophobic violence against every supposed "collaborator". But this is not a silly notion at all.

During the last Presidential elections, BJP candidate Shekhawat was accused of serving as a policeman for the British. This was an official Congress statement released to the press. Guha's book has the following sentence: "Congressmen went to jail while Ambedkar served the Brits". Just take a moment to think about this. So, a mainstream party and a leading intellectual believe that participation in pre-independence British Government calls for a moral downgrade.

Let's skip the formation of Congress party and the political intrigue from about 1910 - independence and arrive at just after the midnight. Nehru made his famous tryst with destiny speech. The entire Government machinery, including many British officers, were kept intact in the new political system. We needed the expertise, but no attempt was even made to limit the influence of this colonial elite. There is nothing sinister in this. There is no reason to suspect this order of acting as fifth columnists. This also proves what our intellectuals have been totally loathe to admit. There was no real hatred against the Brits.

There is some anecdotal evidence that for a while this elite order suffered from some minor anxiety. But pretty soon they discovered what is now amply evident. They were the new feudal order (note: there are always exceptions, for a significant majority, there may not have been sinister motives but sometimes one goes with the flow). Gradually this feudal order would spread its tentacles deep and wide. They assumed and this assumption was actually subscribed at the highest level that the larger mass of people would just remain happy in the villages. The influence of the feudal order, even discounting for the fact that we had a huge Government, extended far beyond its reasonable brief. They monopolized everything, starting from plum jobs to assignments, postings, every cultural and social arena - even temples and mosques. The spouses and children became as important if not more so. As an example, recently Mayawati fired a Muslim IAS officer because his wife was holding a high profile fashion event (presumably using state resources). Thus the new Gods of India were born.

For several decades, even a seat in a cultural event required the nod of this ruling elite. The ruling class assumed the worst traits of the British, for a country supposed to have driven out a "hated" oppressive colonizer, the route to success depended on how well you emulated your past masters.

This was the nature of India for the first few decades. The opportunities were available only to people who were part of this extended power structure. So does this mean that no outsider could gain entry into this feudal order? Not really, as always there are exceptions. Besides India is a very big country. One way to make an entry was through the political route. If the ruling elite took a fancy on you, you were in. Excellence in sports and games guaranteed you spots, Bollywood stars, musicians etc. were de facto members. In this regard the new feudal order was no different from any other in history - they patronized people of the arts.

Funny thing is, once inside the system, people tended to assimilate real fast and pick up the essential traits. As an example, Shobha De, in a highly condescending column, lamented how easy it has become for the masses of India because of the so called Engineering colleges. Her milkman's (or was it the veggie vendor?) son had passed an entrance exam and she was worried that this is creating a class of nouveau riche. Even the French aristocracy did not suffer from this level of self delusion.

India's feudal order is characterized by an extremely cruel condescending attitude towards the aspiring classes, especially those holding dissenting political opinions. If any Indian is ever discovered with a happy and content smile, they will brutally put him to his place. God forbid if you feel proud, of anything at all - yourself, your native culture or just your motherland. You are only allowed to feel proud at officially sanctioned events or incidents of pride. For instance, a Rajiv Gandhi Khel ratna awardee wins a medal, a Jawaharlal Nehru scholar wins a prize etc.

It is easy to see why this class as a whole will never be able to accept the liberalization. These days it has become a fashion to sing paeans for the Nehruvian golden era. This nostalgia basically proves the point of this post. The economic forces have created some rift and unease in the ranks. Most importantly, they are unsure how to accept the new members - who by now have assumed alarming proportions and almost causing a stampede at the gate. An example of this confusion is illustrated below:

Ram Guha: For at least half its life, the Indian Parliament was a place characterised by intellectual sophistication and moral seriousness and, lest we forget, humour. The speeches of such men as Ram Manohar Lohia, Atal Behari Vajpayee and Harindranath Chattopadhyay (among others) were suffused with satirical wit.

Ram Jethmalani: Another enjoyable feature was the speech of the Railway Minister, Laloo Yadav, full of biting humour and subtle satire. Both L.K. Advani and Mayawati must have been squirming when he so artfully demolished their hypocrisy and ridiculed their political ambitions .

For a socialistic country aspiring to protect the masses from evil capitalistic forces, there is practically zero criticism of our big business in the media or by intellectuals. If Suzanna Arundhati Roy does hyperventilate against evil oppressors, her hyperbole rarely refers to any entity by name. Right about now she blames practically all of humanity. Contrast this with the US or continental Europe, activists are practically at war against "evil" Walmart etc. This is where PETA and Greenpeace are not able to make much headway in India.

There is a lot more to add to this and readers of this blog are very much aware of the ground level reality. But don't expect the intellectual class to admit to any of this.

I am in denial
you are in denial
he is in denial too
you and I will agree in our denial
he will deny its true
(from a popular syndicated comic)

Hate to break this news ....

Been observing the Kashmir fiasco for sometime now. It looks like the situation is in a perfect deadlock. In a sense this is a micro simulation of the macro problem of Kashmir.

The controversial accession and the political intrigue that ensued just after independence got us into a deadlock. So we have a "state" with special status and a strange and uneasy quasi stable equilibrium as a whole, as far as Kashmir is concerned. Instead of trying to resolve it, we have tried to live with it.

Unfortunately neither our leaders nor people understand what "deadlock" means. So we end up in a situation like this. The original Kashmir situation had some rational validity inasmuch as territorial claim and nationality has some validity. This new situation defies logic and common sense. Of course the chatterati will shout that all this is BJP's fault with the hope that people forget the role of secularism's latest cheer gal Mehbooba Mufti. Inevitably, many people will, after a decade or so.

But this does not alter the fact that we are in a deadlock. A deadlock can be broken only when one party backs down. Now, once the bad stuff hits the fan, many intellectuals will make solemn appeals to Hindus. Sure enough, they could use adult napkins instead of makeshift restroom facilities. But the question is, why should they? Put Congress in BJP's shoes for a moment. Would they give up this opportunity? Those buggers made political assets out of every trouble in BJP ruled states. Remember the Gujjar agitation? Our stupid Home Minister made a completely nonsensical point equating the Afzal issue with an Indian citizen falsely incarcerated in a Pakistani jail.

The more you think about this, the more you feel that this is going to be the curtain raiser for the final inevitable solution for Kashmir. There are two ways of going about it - the Nehru way, i.e. total bungling and chaos and the 21st century way. The only reasonable exit strategy for India is to take Jammu and give up Kashmir. We are completely game.

The games they play...

The Chinese communist leadership thinks this little girl is too "ugly". She was the real voice behind the national anthem played during the opening ceremony. But the girl the world saw wasn't her. Apparently she didn't fit the communist aesthetic sense. So they had another little girl stand in for her and lip sync.

We recommend China replace their ugly premier Hu Jintao's pictures with a cute Panda.

Boring sting

We were really looking forward to see how CNN-IBN would manage the general election coverage sans a major political party. This would be a first of sorts. In any case, CNN-IBN finally did broadcast the sting tapes and presumably the BJP will have to withdraw their boycott of the channel.

Happened to catch some of the sting footage and it sucked. Here is the biggest irony about sting operations. They are boring as hell. A hidden camera, which is invariably of low res because of logistic reasons. The camera does not move. Does not pan, does not zoom. It does not help that the host (in this case Rajdeep Sardesai) wears an expression on his face as though he was dragged to the studio on pain of death.

Sting operations need to be edited to perfection. Compare and contrast with the Tehelka stings. The Tehelka stings had these components:

1. Interspersed Bollywood movie footage
2. Groovy soundtrack, expert editing
3. A totally convinced commentator
4. Contextual news reel footage, location shots
5. Expert and intellectual opinion in support of the story being put forth in the sting

In contrast, the CNN-IBN cash for votes sting had the following features:

1. No Bollywood movie footage
2. Rajdeep Sardesai said "alleged" a million times as in: The alleged country India's allegedly best news channel broadcast an alleged sting in which a certain political party alleged certain inappropriate conduct by another alleged(*) political party.
(*) The final alleged is because Rajdeep simply would not stop pointing out that no Congress party members were in anyway involved.
3. Repeated assertions that the sting was not complete. Well, the trust vote is over. UP dons are about to plunder zillions from the national treasury. Surely they can't expect an on camera mea culpa from Amar Singh?
4. Several experts suddenly expressing their grave thoughts on the urgent need to develop a set of sting standards, sort of like a Six Sigma for Sting operations.

Meanwhile a critical link in the chain, one Mr. Saxena, has gone missing. Amar Singh is denying any connection with this man who was well known to run errands for the politician. We just hope this man doesn't end up in a ditch.

Come to think of it, the only thing that differentiates India's democracy with that of Zimbabwe is lack of political murders. We have everything else: rigging, bribery, utter disregard for the constitution, contempt of the judges. So socialists! Cheer Up! India is just a few bullets away from sub-Saharan Africa!

A few thoughts on the inflation

(please click on the images for a larger version)

So, the inflation as measured by the year-over-year growth of the WPI was about 12.01% for the week ending July 26. Some people argue that there is no inflation and it is all because of India's inflation reporting. In other words, if India were to report inflation like the US (they primarily report the CPI increase over the previous month, not annualized), the inflation would disappear.

Let's examine that. In the chart above, the pink line is the plot of week-over-week inflation (annualized). You can see two problems here. First, the raw value of week-over-week increase is too small. Second, there are wild fluctuations. In other words, if the Government were to report inflation like the US, they would have to quote the numbers along the pink line, not along the blue line as they currently do.

What is being implied is that there was a spike of sorts and then things have cooled down but the spike remained in the numbers. Clearly the above chart shows that this is not the case. True, the last 2 - 3 weeks were flat at around 6.5%, but who is to say we will not see another peak again? The green line trends the pink line. It is quite accidentally horizontal at the moment, trending at around 17% now.


This chart presents two random scenarios and what the resulting inflation numbers would look like depending on whether you report yoy or wow. Chart A shows a steady annual rate of inflation at 5%. Here the pink week over week line coincides with the blue annual inflation number. Chart B shows a spike (as is being suggested). In this case, as you can see the week over week number suddenly spiked and then fell back to the previous level. However, the blue line, once spiked up, stayed there. This is what is being suggested.

But as you can see from the first graph, this is not exactly the case.

India's next Finance Minister?

The harder Amar Singh denies the possibility of joining the cabinet, the faster does the rumor mill churn.

Congress, however, may require more time to accommodate SP which has not only sought key cabinet berths but also linked its joining the central government to the firming up of a seat-sharing arrangement with Congress in Uttar Pradesh. [link]

We predicted the seat-sharing possibility weeks ago. This has more to do with a belief in Congress circles that they can get more seats if the secular votes do not get divided. After the Karnataka elections, Congress bosses simply would not stop talking about it.

Thus it is the Congress which wants the seat sharing arrangement. In return, SP will demand plum portfolios. Without a doubt, Amar Singh has been eyeing the Finance Ministry portfolio for sometime. Recently in response to a question on a TV interview, he replied that he wanted windfall profit taxes on Oil companies just like the US democrats. You sure can't argue with that in Indian intellectual circles, can you? The man sure has done his homework. He has also shot off a letter to SEBI making specific allegations of insider trading against a certain company.

Amar Singh wants respect in the "black tie/wine and cheese pairing circles". Coming from the political background he does, you are an automatic write-off. People may laugh at your gaudy jokes, but just about. Yet Amar Singh is much more polished than his feudal peers. He can speak the language, albeit with a funny accent. This side of his character has been noticed.

Unfortunately, one can buy votes, one can't buy respect. When one realizes it, one sets about to acquire the next best thing, i.e. fear. Now, who does the club he wants to join fear most?

SIMI Unplugged

NEW DELHI: In a major setback to anti-terror efforts, a special tribunal on Tuesday lifted the ban on the Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI), saying that the government had failed to provide sufficient evidence to justify continued curbs on the fundamentalist group. [...]

The move to lift the ban on SIMI comes amid what intelligence agencies say is mounting evidence of its involvement in major terrorist attacks, the most recent being the serial blasts in Ahmedabad and Bangalore. [link]

Astonishing piece of news. One minor point, SIMI is now SIM, they have dropped the rather unimportant component from their name. Meanwhile Amar Singh's security was upgraded to Z-Plus status.

This is no coincidence, it is intimately linked to the new friends of Congress.

We agree with the Supreme Court.

Sting envy

The various attempts at covering up the cash-for-votes scandal has reached a stage beyond silly.
First there was a comically botched reverse sting attempt by Uma Bharti. Now the trio of Lalu-Ram Vilas Paswan-Mulayam is attempting to peddle another CD, claiming that they can refute the cash-for-votes allegations. The latter attempt could be a desperate last ditch attempt to save buddy boy Amar Singh's skin.

It is incredible that instead of showing these jokers the door, the media is actually tacitly encouraging them.

Lalu-Mulayam-Ram Vilas & Co. have outlived their usefulness in Indian politics. An excellent column (coincidentally his latest) by Chandrabhan Prasad explains what these politicians are really about. The media is not really doing anyone a favor, least of all to their favorite secular party, by cheering for these primitives.

USS New York

The Americans forged a warship out of the steel from the ruins of the World Trade Center. The symbolism is unmistakable. Read more on the website.

An excerpt:

"This new class of ships will project American power to the far corners of the Earth and support the cause of freedom well into the 21st century. From the war for independence through the war on terrorism, which we wage today, the courage and heroism of the people of New York has been an inspiration. USS New York will play an important role in our Navy's future and will be a fitting tribute to the people of the Empire State."

Governor George Pataki, Governor of New York, responded by stating, "On September 2001, our nation's enemies brought their fight to New York... The USS New York will now bring the fight to our nation's enemies well into the future."

Pretty heavy stuff, this. Perhaps unpalatable to the "pacifist" Indian taste. Funny thing is, you feel almost no presence of the military in American civilian life. Contrast this with India. With all the intellectual whining and an atmosphere heavy with longing desire for a return to what is described as a Gandhian utopia, the military is almost under constant deployment in India, to contain various civilian strifes. Always has been.

India hasn't really been together on account of Bollywood, as Ramachandra Guha says. India is held together by military strength. Except that we refuse to acknowledge it.

Can Crony Capitalism help India?

Ah! "Reforms" - a word that is making rounds in the intellectual circles these days. It is another matter that no one knows when they will come and in what form, if at all. Funny that these "reforms" are basically a move towards market economy, yet people are so loathe to use the other phrase that they must necessarily disguise it by using a less "dangerous" sounding word (hint: Aaam Aadmi mustn't get wise, Shhhh).

On the face of it, it would appear that crony-capitalism sometimes leads to great success. The Japanese success story, the relative success of South Korea, Taiwan or even Indonesia/Malaysia lends credence to this observation. Even the United States had their robber baron era. In the South-East Asian nations, crony capitalism was used as an exit route to realize economic gains while the Government maintained a populist front.

There are many issues with crony-cap and it can inflict varying degrees of injustice and damage. In extreme cases, for instance feudalism, it causes extreme distress and spark off "revolutions" (another word, not so nice today). In mixed economies, it produces uneven and unpredictable results.

Crony capitalism is not new in India, it started much before independence and was officially sanctioned by the "Bombay Plan". Then the reasons were very different as were the players and people taking the initiative. It is very evident that crony capitalism is leading to ruination of our economic framework. While some of the crony-cap cases such as the big business houses are wildly successful, others like T. R. Baalu are not. The former are mostly interested in stability and a broad economic policy that clandestinely elevates their profits and scope of business and reduces competition. However, it really depends on whether the Government side can make the correct calls. The expensive Nuclear energy deals (and almost sure to come subsequent subsidies to bring the price level with thermal/hydro electric) will lead to great loss of economic value. The SEZ policy caused unimaginable human rights violation that parallels some of the brutal feudal regimes. This policy must be scrapped, at the very least, greatly modified. Apart from becoming a tool for indiscriminate land grab, the SEZ policy is simply not producing the intended effect. In any case, Government policies seldom do.

The pathetic case of T R Baalu (Shipping and Transportation Minister) presents another face of crony capitalism. His companies are BIFR cases, even after procuring gas at a drastically reduced prices. The danger is that a completely incompetent but politically powerful entity may take it upon himself to launch businesses. This scenario leads to huge economic losses for the country. If allowed to continue unabated, the politician then enacts laws to help his company. This was the case with sick politician run sugar mill units of Maharashtra and elsewhere (Pratibha Patil!). In other instances, like in the case of Dr. Ramadoss (Health Minister), the politician applies his political power to enable his friends.

Crony capitalism must never be a policy objective, but realistically a certain amount of it is unavoidable. Crony cap harms can be minimized if there is a small Government to begin with. Allowing external competition can prevent value destruction to a great extent. It also helps to have realistic politicians, who realze whether they have it in them and accordingly become a cheerleader like Amar Singh rather than trying to be a playah like T. R. Baalu. A healthy dose of nationalist feelings mitigates the risks of surrendering the nation's sovereignty.

Opening up the economy since the 90s has definitely helped India. A country that used to only evoke scorns of derisive laughter is now getting a sliver of respect on the global stage. But the pace has been so slow that people have learned how to game the system. Wild swings in policy and laws that affect trade and business helped the cronies. It didn't help that along with "liberalization", instead of becoming smaller (literal meaning), it spread its tentacles further and further. Perhaps every fifth person in India is "Government", if one were to exclude the poorest quartile. Our obscurantist monetary framework is not helping either. For some reason the Government has taken upon itself to destroy value by keeping the exchange rate absurdly low.

The fragmented political scenario has thrown us into an enabling environment that practically breeds corruption and cronyism. Instead of becoming more like the successful nations, we are increasingly beginning to resemble Latin American and African nations.

Houses of the holy

Why CNN-IBN did not telecast trust vote sting

Why have we not telecast the story so far? Quite simply, we have chosen not to telecast the story yet because we did not feel that the story was complete.

Credible journalism is based on accuracy not speed, facts not sensationalism, reportage not allegations and assumptions. Our rigorous editorial protocol demands that even a hidden camera shoot is absolutely water-tight.

In this particular story, there were many loose ends that needed to be cross-checked, corroborated and investigated further before the story could be aired.

[...]

We would like to reiterate that at CNN-IBN we remain committed to quality and independent journalism. Our commitment is to the truth.

Truth that cannot be partial, inconclusive or sensational, but one that must adhere to exacting standards of fairness and accuracy.

This is just a small excerpt from a long winded article. Since when does the media wait for a story to "complete"? At this very moment the CNN-IBN site adorns a scary newsflash about a bomb scare at Vadodara stock exchange. Exactly what could be not so water-tight about a footage from a hidden camera? Except of course if you are literally shooting under water.

The story also goes on to quote Harish Salve at length. Salve adds little value except to agree with CNN-IBN not airing the tape, while simultaneously not providing any convincing legal reason for not doing so.

Not airing the tape was a choice. Likewise, everything stated in the article are opinions of CNN-IBN team or their masters. The basic fallacy is that an opinion can not impart morality on a choice, especially when the opinion is expressed by the party making the choice.

Thank you, Sushmaji

So the secular buggers are yelping like kicked pariah dogs, after Sushma Swaraj gave them a taste of her own version of Dum Dum dawai. Under normal circumstances, Ms. Swaraj's statements are highly offensive and objectionable, but then again you wanna argue if these are normal circumstances? Be our guest (hint: large bundles of currency notes being flashed in Parliament, Amar Singh etc.). At least two BJP oriented blogs (Chindu and Offstumped) excoriated Ms. Swaraj's statements in no uncertain terms.

But such courtesy was not extended by the intellectual Junta post Sonia Gandhi's Maut ka Saudagar remark. Amar Singh uttered the phrase "communal forces" so many times that the fella might have developed a toothache from it.

The fact remains that the extended family has always resorted to the most vulgar rhetoric. The list of their victims is long - starting from Dr. Ambedkar to Babu Jagjivan Ram to the latest - Mayawati (a recent CNN-IBN comedy show made the most vulgar allusions to her appearance, Tehelka's Mintty Tejpal also made similar remarks in the past). Let us not even mention the most offensive remarks made about a certain set of people day in and day out. Now they are suddenly nice, working for "national interest" and ardent believers of "economic growth".

The media and the intellectuals must share at least a part of the blame for the recent dreadful attacks. The sheer scale of the attack and the meticulous planning behind it suggests the involvement of at least several dozen operatives. This would not have been possible without the aid of the media's constant flashing of terrible images and constant reopening of wounds. The Tehelka Sting finally bore its deadly fruit.

Shortly after the attacks, CNN-IBN had Mallika Sarabhai on call. She said something about humanity and insensitivity and then mentioned a couple of key incidents from 2002. Then she said, "perhaps about two hundred or three fifty or a thousand women were raped ...". Even if one were to disregard the statistics, how do you explain such casual statements?

What Mallika Sarabhai, Rajdeep Sardesai, Sagarika Ghose and countless other intellectuals want to say is that Ahmedabad deserved this attack. It is just that they don't have Sushma Swaraj's guts.

So, after dozens of attacks, lots of editorializing, politicking, indignation, discussions, analysis paralysis etc. etc., the only big question is: will they consider it even, now?

Bicycles of violence

Even before the Bangalore blasts were properly editorialized, terror struck once again, this time in Ahmedabad. The highly symbolic nature of the three most recent terror strikes accentuates the steely determination of the group(s) behind the blasts. At the same time, these attacks expose the vulnerability of a socialist country grappling with its identity on the world's stage.

Like it or not, India is headed towards an ugly conflict it doesn't need with a certain neighbor. It can tide over the crisis, provided the leaders do what they are supposed to, i.e. provide leadership.

Perhaps for the first time, a CM has called for "quickening the pace of development" to send a strong message to the terrorists.

Bangalore Bombed (or should we say, seculared?)

Congress supporters celebrate the trust vote victory

Terror strikes shining India's most talked about town, the iconic showpiece of our success in the IT/BPO business.

In many ways this low yield strike defies logic, yet everything starts to fall into place once you factor in the political situation. Sandeep has a great post summarizing the events leading up to the blasts. B. Raman analyzes the blasts.

The convenient timing of this terror attack is quite intriguing, not that we are suggesting anything. Taking on an ally like the Samajwadi Party is a package deal, it is another matter that instead of triggering a massive moral outrage, Amar Singh's antics seem to be tickling the funny bones of media people.

For once we have a terror attack which will receive the media coverage it deserves. This time the PM and home minister made statements in record time.

A Choice not an echo

Phyllis Schlafly may not be a familiar name to many, but in her prime time during the 60s she was one of the most influential American conservative activists. Her groundbreaking book, A choice not an echo, aside from being a best seller, would essentially set the tone that would eventually usher in the Reagan era.

An outstanding student, her achievements are even more remarkable given that this was an America still not comfortable with an independent woman, let alone one with strong views.

While the political situation in the book requires some background and indeed may not be wholly applicable to a parliamentary democracy like India, many of the ideas in it will be immediately familiar.

A choice not an echo is an ardent appeal to American voters, before the presidential elections of 1964. Phyllis Schlafly exposes the ugly underbelly of the unholy influence big business wields on the political process. The book details how easily national interests are set aside, how conveniently idealistic candidates are buried by a conniving media.

An excerpt from the book readers can immediately relate to:

Chapter Six: The Pollsters and the Hoaxers (1944)

They discovered and developed a new political weapon: the Gallup Poll. Dr. George Gallup began asking lot of questions of a very few people, and - funny thing - he usually came up with answers that pleased the New York kingmakers.

The Gallup poll has been used repeatedly as a subtle propaganda machine to sell the Republicans on the false propositions that the GOP cannot win unless it (1) continues the New Deal foreign policy and (2) names candidates who will appeal to left-leaning Democrats and liberals.

The Gallup Poll worked so well that, in 1944, there was hardly any need to have a Republican Convention. The Gallup Poll had already announced that Dewey had 68 percent of Republican voters in his camp, and that he was the only Republican with a chance to win.. The Convention was cold, dull and colorless. The delegates met merely to ratify the Gallup Poll decision.

Her widest smile yet.....

Link.

Not convinced about nuclear power

Ah! Democracy! Strange are its ways indeed. In any case, no refund for subscribers, so, we are stuck with this for now.

As explained earlier, our objection to the N-deal is mainly on the basis of strategic reasons. The current political environment of the world is pretty toxic and uncertain. Except France, most other countries have crossed over to the liberal side. Once the Olympics are over, heaven only knows what the Chinese will do. A liberal western Government will not blink before imposing sanctions on India for real or imagnary transgressions of the treaty, if it wins a few votes on that basis. So far India has managed to stay out of the radar of the NPT wallahs. Why stir up the shit pot?

In any case, it looks like we are going to have nuke power, lots of it. This is where the N-Deal starts to look like a huge fiasco.

A 2003 MIT study reveals that Nuclear power economics is very dubious. Huge upfront costs, as much as $12 billion for a single unit, can make it even more expensive. In the US, where nuke provides 20% of power, the industry has received a subsidy of more than $100 billion. For a quick reference, please read this Salon article.

An interesting quote from a US Pundit, to people of Australia (who have massive Uranium reserves!):

"I love the idea of nuclear energy if we can ever figure out a way to make it," he said.

"It's the most catastrophically expensive way to boil a pot of water that has ever been devised, and if we can figure out a way to make it economical and safe I'm all for it."

Yes, Virginia, if oil costs go beyond a certain threshold, Nuke power may become a cheaper alternative. This is too hypothetical. No one has ever done a convincing economic study on nuke power in India. Nuke power competitiveness depends on local factors. All the Government reports generally quote arbitrary international data, with no mention of up front costs or costs of over runs and inefficiency that is almost a hallmark of Government projects. Add to it all the overheads of inspection, land acquisition, safety etc.

Soon, the US may start offshore drilling. What if oil price makes a retreat? We will be left holding expensive nuclear power in our hands.

For all the bravura of the Government, no one is going to spend $12 billion for a single unit for the type of scale they intend to achieve. As a comparison, the farmer loan waiver was $15 billion. This is also the total amount of individual income tax collected in the most recent fiscal year.

Trust?

The complete disconnect between words and deeds exhibited by the Congress party started to become apparent from the twilight years of Pandit Nehru. Until then, the great man's personal charm over the populace and political leaders managed to put an aura of artificial nobility on the party and put detractors on the back foot.

Even then, the Congress was able to maintain its charade. It was also helped by momentous historical events. However, the mask started to come off since the late 80s and by now it is completely off, revealing a face that is almost cartoonish - and ugly.

Congress has always demanded the highest conduct from its opposition and detractors, simultaneously indulging in the worst forms of political skulduggery.

Suhasini Haider's excellent post on CNN-IBN chronicles some of the party's past back stabbings.

Why has it come to this- where the UPA is in parliamentary ICU, depending on blood donations from those it has never felt the need to be even civil with in the past?

Why is it that statesmanship and floor management is a dying art while pressure politics and deal making flourishes? If this vote was about the nuclear deal, one the government says as in national interest, why didn't the Prime Minister make any effort for national consensus before this? From July 2005, when the deal was announced, to July 2007, when the 1-2-3 was frozen, to July 2008, when his government may yet go on the issue, why has he not reached out to one member of the NDA, with an olive branch, not a fait accompli? And why are Mrs. Gandhi and Master Gandhi making the pitch to the nation for a "nuclear revolution" that will light up all villages now and never before?

Losing the trust vote could actually help the party immensely. The general elections will coincide with the state elections in BJP states - where the wave of anti-incumbency against the state Governments will find its way into the general elections too. Inflation may continue to get worse. Also, the party can put back on the mask of nobility with the claim that they let the Government fall rather than indulge n horse trading (believe it or not, people buy these things).

Perhaps Congress is betting too much on free agent voters. They feel that these voters are so sold on the N-Deal that they will vote for the Congress in large numbers in the next general elections, completely disregarding chronic mis-governance, urban chaos, halted reforms, terror and naxal menace, cronyism and corruption.

If that is the case, it is the biggest irony of all. Most of Congress rhetoric is targeted at these free agent voters, who are allegedly constantly preventing it from implementing its social justice schemes.

An article

We all know that socialist interest in farmers is like spring fever. The political intrigue in New Delhi and the sordid tales of horse trading has eclipsed everything else. Just how do you characterize what is happening at the center? Is that social justice? Shouldn't the Government leave aside everything else and ensure speedy and effective execution of the Loan Waiver scheme? But they all seem to be busy working on Amar Singh's aging apparatus.

Anyway, we digress. Perhaps there is a logical explanation to all this.

Here is an interesting article, there is no reason to suspect its factual accuracy (international source and all that). An excerpt:

Rural productivity has increased since 2003, when the government allowed farmers to sell crops directly to wholesalers and abolished state-run monopolies that paid fixed prices to ensure affordable food supplies.

Seems pretty much like a "free market" type policy to us.

There are two other things the article offers:

a) All the pictures are from Madhya Pradesh
b) The farmers liberated from the clutch of Government do not appear to be in need of a loan waiver.

That is all.

Just how much does Congress stand to lose in embracing SP?

The Congress party takes for granted a small but significant section of its vote bank. This is the segment that votes strictly on nostalgic factors. This is an ossified, politically non-vocal community that fasts on 2nd October. For them time stands still in the pre-independence era. Sure, there are problems, but their deliverance will eventually come. They hope for an Avatar of the Mahatma or Chachaji.

They don't even have to read the Organizer to find out just how much of a departure the party has made from their mythical world. Mythical because much of their perception was really formed by a state controlled media and a state controlled education system. They just need to see who contests from Nehru's constituency these days.

Unfortunately, this group stubbornly resists change, since the support for the party is tied to their self-image. Divested of religion and any other sense of morality, they constantly need to seek solace in the words of past leaders of the Congress party. Captive to the sound bites of a new generation of unscrupulous leaders characterized by boundless avarice, greed and gluttony, they exhibit unmistakable symptoms of Stockholm syndrome.

In Amar Singh we see a last big hope that this vote bank will finally receive the requisite jolt that can awaken them from their stupor. What was until now confined to the dust plains of primitive UP, can potentially come to the political center-stage. Once it does, it ain't gonna be pretty.

We already talked about startling facets of the man's persona. Well, here is more.

A reader alerted us about a phone-tapping scandal involving Amar Singh that happened in 2006. Apparently some opportunistic elements (at the time Amar Singh alleged even Congress and indeed the party was most vocal in demanding Singh's arrest) tapped Amar Singh's phone and recorded several conversations, not only with industrialists but with Bollywood actresses. Some of these conversations were incriminating in nature and referred to ongoing court cases against the politician. Funny thing is, the media never broadcast these tapes. They developed cold feet and allowed Singh enough time to get a Supreme court stay order.

Here is an interesting bit from the tapes (allegedly a conversation between Amar Singh and actress Bipasha Basu):

Amar: : But I will make some time.
Bipasha: : OK sweetie.
Amar: : Very nice of you to have remembered me.
Bipasha: : (Laughs) I toh always remember you.
Amar: : An old man like me.
Bipasha: : Sorry.
Amar: : An old fossil like me.
Bipasha: : Old fossil like you.
Amar: : ya ya.
Bipasha: : I don't think age really matters. Does it?
Amar: : It matters between the legs na?
Bipasha: : (Bursts out laughing) Oh God.ha ha ha ha.all right then.you try removing time now. it's been almost a month now I've not met.
Amar: : Ya we will meet.
Bipasha: : OK. Right, keep in touch. Bye.

Bit too much information on the effects of aging on his anatomical parts.

CNN-IBN's Rajdeep Sardesai writes:

As our camera recorded the private party , I asked Amar Singh how he reconciled the role of neta by day and party animal by night: "I am not a hypocrite," he shot back, with a familiar grin, "If Amitabh and Anil Ambani are my friends, why should I hide it from the world? If I play Holi with Shilpa Shetty, why should I be ashamed of it!" [link]

Certainly there is nothing wrong in social interactions, but it is a bit disconcerting that various references to Bollywood female stars is almost like a central theme to the man's character. No wonder he is siding heavily with Anil Ambani, who has recently made huge investments into the entertainment business.

Perhaps Rajdeep finds it cutesy, we are not so amused. Amar Singh's proximity to industrialists was described by Rajdeep Sardesai as a likely new chapter in Indian history, a bridge between corporate India and politics. When BJP leaders drop any hint of capitalistic reforms, the usual response is putting up a front page story with a picture of a hungry child. Such is the nature of political discourse in the country today.

Scarcely a few days into the new alliance, Amar Singh has already made contemptuous statements about a Supreme Court judge (or as Ramachandra Guha would say, started fixing institutions one by one).

We just hope that Congress realizes the risk in letting these elements into its sanctum sanctorum.

f u cn rd ths u cn ndrstn d nuk dl

New rabbits are being pulled out of the hat every day. Now we have been informed that there are certain safeguards that must be kept secret. In other words, no one really has a clue. It is not even clear if they let various opposition leaders take a peep at those supposedly extremely sensitive documents.

But it is the red herring being dragged across the trail and not those rabbits that interests us. Here is a wild conspiracy theory and it sure does sound a lot more interesting than the copious amount of analysis being done on all the news channels.

How about the Left, SP and the Congress were in on it together in a well thought out plan?

1. Even as Prakash Karat seethes in uncontrollable fits of anger, A B Bardhan has virtually admitted that no love has been lost between the Left and the UPA.
   
   
2. If the Congress wanted the deal so badly at the risk of early polls, it could have done so last year. The proverbial iron was hot, it would be a game, set and match in a matter of months. All they gained is about a year worth of extra tenure.
   
   
3. In contrast, right now the deal really has little chance of going through.
   
   
4. Left could not abandon their ideological position at any point of time. They would have opposed the deal anyway. Last year was a genuine attempt to make the deal, Congress hoped against hope that the Left might come to a compromise formula - such as CMP+ for N-Deal. This negotiation failed.
   
   
5. Manmohan Singh's image has suffered a setback. The prince is waiting on the bench. Congress needs a strong excuse to flag in the prince, yet weather the ensuing criticisms. Congress also needs to revive the Nehru-Gandhi brand. Manmohan Singh gets to keep the congratulations for posterity.
   
   
6. How about Congress is helpless, like they always are? Suppose the Left demands Manmohan Singh's ouster? Well, A B Bardhan already did.
   
   
7. Now suppose the Samajwadi Party demands Rahul Gandhi be made the PM candidate? Right now they are perched on a fairly high branch of the morality tree - Amar Singh has declared that they won't demand a ministerial berth. He is using the phrase "communal forces" in every other statement. In such a setting, the whole thing will not only sound natural, but even the media will have plenty of ammunition when they face the nation.
   
   
8. For the Left, it does not really matter. They get to keep their ideological stand intact. Deal or no deal, they have saved face in front of their core support base of leftist intellectuals and minorities. The non minority poor that supports the Left are indifferent to the deal.
   
   
9. The Left could not possibly join an NDA alliance. They worked out a nice formula with UPA. So, by diverting focus on the scape goat Manmohan Singh, they can participate in the next UPA Government without embarrassment. This will work even if they lose some seats in the next elections.
   
   
10. An SP and Congress alliance in UP can not get much worse than them fighting each other. On the other hand they have a much greater upside from their low seat counts. For SP it may mean a chance to participate in the Government in the near future. This could be the only way they can elbow in, the UNPA is all but dead.
    
    
11. Cases against Mayawati are suddenly being fast tracked while those against Amar Singh and Mulayam Singh Yadav are being shelved.
    
    
12. The next elections can become a numbers game. Abhishek Singhvi has already stated that he believes that the largest alliance should form the Government, not necessarily the party that wins the most seats.
    
    
13. Inflation is likely to get worse. The constitutional "crisis" is a nice diversionary tactic and a good excuse to bail out before the inflation issue goes completely out of hand.

There are too many coincidences and too many startling developments in this whole drama. News channels like CNN-IBN are playing a bit too dumb to be credible. There is a strong possibility that the whole thing was orchestrated. As a matter of fact, perhaps it was scripted last year itself, down to the last detail. Even last year there were plenty of hints of an SP-Cong alliance which was downplayed.

Sad

Ramanand, 72, and his wife Vaishno Devi killed themselves in their house in the Nagrota migrant camp. The couple had left Kashmir in 1989 and been living in their one-room house for the last 19 years.

"He (Ramanand) had come from Srinagar and told me that his land was encroached upon by neighbours and a tehsildar. He said a school had been built there," Ramanand's friend, Moti Lal Bhat, said. "He wasn't given any compensation for the land. He had been fighting for it for several years and was extremely frustrated."

[...] Such instances of land encroachment are not the first for Kashmiri migrants. [link]

The "communal forces" must be defeated. That is the only priority, remember that.

Amar Singh's offensive statement

Right at this very moment, Amar Singh is the secular media's blue eyed boy. He is in great demand and he is making use of it. He has been on the most important TV programs, including Devil's Advocate.

The media can't seem to get enough of Amar Singh explaining with a straight face how noble his intentions are and how committed he is in fighting the "communal forces". But he had to go out and make this highly offensive statement:

Justifying his party's decision to join hands with the Congress after years-long bitter rivalry, Amar Singh said in the interview: 'When Prakash Karat goes to meet Sonia Gandhi, it's called 'suhaag raat' [wedding night], but when we go to meet Sonia Gandhi, it's called 'balaatkaar' [rape].'

Criticising the remarks, Sudha Sundararaman of the All India Democratic Women's Association (AIDWA), said Amar Singh's remarks were a reflection of the lack of respect for women in public life. [link]

The statement stinks of clogged gutters of a mufassil town in UP, where corrugated cowshed roofs silhouette the horizon.

Amar Singh hasn't forgotten the insult meted out to him by Mrs. Gandhi. That offensive statement was a deliberate act of insult, to show exactly how he is viewing this alliance and more importantly how vulnerable he thinks Congress is. Although he is denying it now, he made it on record, in front of several reporters.

There was something bizarre when he named his new house "Aishwarya". His latest offensive statement only confirms the sort of fantasy he wants to live in.

Yet his statement will be downplayed, denied and then pinned on unnamed conspirators who want to "create differences among secular forces".

Lalu

Yet another explosion

Another explosion happened. Guess who will bend over first? No prizes though.

The FM's Devils Advocate appearance: scripted?

Last year, Narendra Modi made his appearance on the famed Devil's Advocate show. Faced with a persistent Karan Thapar, Modi walked out, barely a few minutes into the program. As expected, there were howls of derisive laughter from the secular quarters and much scorn for the CM from the intellectuals.

The premise of Devil's Advocate is simple: the politician or personality invited on the program is expected to face hardball questions from the host. The host (Mr. Thapar) is expected to ask big issue questions and be really persistent. For the guest, it is really a gamble. If you agree to appear on Devil's Advocate, you run the risk of being made fun of in front of the whole nation. On the other hand, your oratory can win you applause from your fans.

In other words, by agreeing to appear on the program, you are making a risk-reward calculation. It is entirely the prerogative of the personality whether he or she accepts the invitation. Likewise, the public depends on the honesty of the news channel and the host to draw conclusions about the performance of the guest.

In his characteristic style, the FM wanted to have his cake and eat it too:

Disclaimer: As a condition for granting this interview, Finance Minister P Chidambaram demanded the right to clear it as well as deny clearance without citing reasons. CNN-IBN was forced to agree otherwise the interview would not have happened. But the final take is being broadcast exactly as recorded and the Finance Minister did not ask for any change.

Karan Thapar: Hello and welcome to Devil’s Advocate. Will the Finance Minister be able to control inflation or will it sink the UPA Government? That’s the key issue I shall explore today with the Finance Minister P Chidambaram himself. [link]

Given such a strange "precondition", it is difficult not to speculate whether the entire interview was scripted.

Such is the fate of the Indian public that they must put up with such farce, such gross intellectual dishonesty. It is bad reality TV - and most people can't even afford a bag of chips.

People are starving. What does the FM expect us to do? Clap at his repartees and get overwhelmed by his courage to face the toughest TV interview in India?

Lastly, here is a curious portion of the interview:

P Chidambaram: Well when we do it we take flak, and when we cannot do it anymore because of political compulsions, we just have to grin and bear it. But we have to communicate it to the people, that India and any other developing country, which is an oil consumer, is a victim of international crude oil prices. We must communicate in the language of the people.

Karan Thapar: And that communication has to start with you and the Prime Minister because you are the two people responsible for that message?

P Chidambaram: I'm the one who's making every effort to communicate via statements, interviews, speeches but I do it in English or Tamil. There are others who have to do it in other languages too.

Karan Thapar: Someone needs to do it in the national language, which is Hindi.

P Chidambaram: Not just Hindi but Bengali, Malayalam, Oriya, Telugu — all the languages.

A fine example of signaling.

Now you have seen everything

We are yet to recover from Vasundhara Raje's new quota regime in which she promised 14% quota for the economically disadvantaged sections of the deemed "privileged". If this gambit passes legal challenges, Raje will beat Lalu and Mayawati to the punch.

Now get a load of this:

Two years after a city college allowed girl students inside its portals, insecurity seems to have set in male ranks. Outdone in all fields academic, they are now demanding admission under reservation. Imagine. This happening in a male-crazed land where sex ratio is anything but in favour of the female child!

On Saturday, a group of boys from SCD Government College for Boys, Ludhiana, demanded that the entry of girls in the institute be restricted. They submitted copies of their "application" to the chief minister, education minister, deputy commissioner, principal and Punjab State Human Rights Commission. They have demanded that the college authorities come out with two different merit lists in courses where girls are allowed and that seats be reserved in 70:30 (male, female) ratio. [link]

There are only two remaining bastions to be conquered. The first of course is private jobs and the second - regional quota. The regional quota is currently implemented in indirect ways, for instance this.

As various groups begin to understand better where they stand, they will demand continual adjustments. Since the Government steadfastly refuse to create a poll-neutral formula and the apex court has ruled out meddling in the affairs of the executive branch, these corrections will take increasingly violent forms. The Gujjar agitation was merely one of many to come.

An example of just how messy the quota arithmetic has become can be evidenced from this:

CHENNAI: In an ironical development, a community that was provided reservation in educational institutions and jobs said it does not want the provision. Christians in Tamil Nadu said the 3.5% exclusive reservation made for them in education and employment should be abrogated, contending that they had realised that quota hurt their interests instead of benefiting them. [...] Bishop of Kottar Rev Peter Remigius, state minorities commission chairman Fr Vincent Chinnadurai, all MLAs and one MP from Kanyakumari district, were part of the delegation. "This reservation is not beneficial to the Christian community, as we were doing better when we were competing with other backward classes for 30% OBC reservation. As an educated community, we were doing well, but the quota now restricts our job opportunities and admissions," Fr Chinnadurai told TOI. [...] Citing an example, he said in the ongoing MBBS admission process, out of 2,699 seats, Christians could only get 94 seats (3.5%), whereas they could have got more than 300 seats if the entire 30% OBC quota was open to them. [link]

This is India, where there are no rules, just rights.

Have you seen them lately?

Pictures of hungry children, not seen on secular media for months and counting.
Inflation: 11.63% and mounting.

Dumb charades

We predicted it as early as September, 2007. In the past few months it hasn't really been a state secret. Yet CNN-IBN is pretending like this is some sort of revelation. They are attempting to put a facade of respectability to this sordid affair by running a blitzkrieg of stories.

Apparently the National Security Adviser met with Amar Singh and explained the nuances of the deal. This really changed Amar Singh's heart! Directly, Amar Singh addressed a press conference and expressed his overwhelming support for Congress and the N-Deal. What exactly would the NSA have said to Singh? For that matter, since when did Amar Singh become such a desh bhakt that he would only consent after learning that the deal was good for the country?

It is evident that Congress and SP are going to do a seat sharing deal in the upcoming general elections. It was evident the day Amar Singh got an invite to the UPA 4-year anniversary party and got his Z-class security the day after.

Meanwhile, SP is asking for a hefty bride price: among other things, they have asked the FM be dismissed. We feel this has more to do with a certain very powerful family run conglomerate's proximity to the Samajwadi party than with their displeasure at the FM's inflation handling.

Come to think of it, we would like that too. The bugger needs to go, enough of his Harvard-oh-I-am-so-intelligent and y'all are fools stuff.