The current political backdrop

Neerja Chowdhury (Indian Express) writes an excellent article describing the political backdrop for Mandal II.

HRD minister’s quota card was less a joker than a calculated ploy to improve his own lot and, via Assembly elections two years hence in Madhya Pradesh, that of his son.

One of the mysteries the political circles are trying to unravel is why Arjun Singh floated the balloon of OBC reservation in premier educational institutions when he did. Singh, a politically savvy minister of the old school like Pranab Mukherjee, does not do things just like that.
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Some subscribe to the view that the PM wanted to move out Arjun Singh; the latter’s retaliation has made it difficult for the PM to act.
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There is another theory: Arjun Singh is positioning himself for APJ Abdul Kalam’s job next year, when presidential elections are due.
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Then there is Madhya Pradesh politics. With elections due in 2008, and the possibility of the Congress coming back to power, OBC politics could help Arjun Singh’s son Ajay Singh in state politics.
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The difference is this: While mainstream parties, including the BJP and the Congress, had strongly opposed Mandal I, no one is opposing Mandal II. It is a political reality no political group is prepared to confront.