We had a debate?

First of all, let us bask in the sunlight of our own self-approval.

On April 27th, we issued an investment advisory. On May 18th the SENSEX crashed by 826 points. The markets continue to remain shaky, the Rupee charts new lows every day. Apparently the central bank is doing all sorts of things to prevent it from falling further.

On May 19th, we analysed the possible outcomes while the GoM deliberated on the quota row. There was widespread optimism and even some statements from the Government that they were seriously considering a 9+9+9 formula. We were pretty much right on. As we had predicted, the Government announced and is widely expected to go ahead with the 27% reservations in all premier institutes in one fell sweep sans the creamy layer exclusion.

Dilip D'Souza laments that we didn't have a sane debate, with anti-reservation folks using foul language etc. Well, a debate is when both sides are willing to listen (*). A debate is when instead of subjecting the dissidents to lathi charge, you actually work out a solution, not merely hand them a piece of paper with no name on it. So, what we have here is exactly what we had last week, i.e. the same 27% reservations with which we started. Which is the way Arjun Singh wants it. Well, he gets it. What debate?

Actually, once they annouced the 27% quota, there was no going back without losing all the electoral advantages. Promise a toddler a full choco bar and try making him accept one third choco. Creamy layer - same story. If the creamy layer exclusion is implemented, Government will lose support from the powerful OBC lobbies.

So, what happens to the 53% increase in seats? Well, that's another story. As realitycheck points out, the Government will try to pull one over our eyes. The entire Tughlaqian proposal of increasing the seats at a cost of over Rs. 12,000 crores can not possibly be completed in a year. It seems, the medicos may be the least affected after all. As it is they have a few hundred seats and even doubling the capacity will not be a big strain. IITs and IIMs are a different story. Apart from one or two IIT/IIMs (which have undergone expansions recently), the others are severely resource constrained, both from infrastructure and staffing point of view. It is our estimate that at best the number of seats can be increased by an over all 10% in a year. This 10% will not be prime seats. Seats added to JNU can not be counted as seats in IITs or IIMs. A new IIM will not really equal its already well established peers, not in its first year of operations.

Although realitycheck remains optimistic, we do not think the SC intervention will amount to much. When you have a constitution that does not know how to protect itself from illiterate ministers, the SC hardly has any power. Besides, it is not a problem that can not be fixed.

.... the rally also sought reservation of equal percentage of seats in both houses of Parliament for OBC candidates. As for reservations in high courts and the Supreme Court and co-operative bodies, the leaders did not specify the percentage of quotas.

Here is what will happen in the coming few months: The ministers will mostly stay out of the country and out of reach. PC doesn't have much of a choice, he will be stuck defending a falling Rupee. They will commission various studies, leak bogus reports about capacity expansion and wait out the summer. Come next session, the tired students will get too busy to protest. To get a taste of how the creamy layer will be dealt with, here is a revealing comment from Abi's blog:

I want the creamy layer to be defined on the education level and job of the parents and not on economy alone. Any criteria based on economy is going to be a failure in a country where we do not have a reliable way to find the income of those who don't get a salary.... (hey... Yess....... I hear some one telling that even among the salaried class, there are few who earn more under the table than the pay cheque !!!!)
- Dr. Bruno.

We do not rule out a constitutional amendment to further define the creamy layer.

Now, with all this, the opposition will not have much of a choice, will it? Don't be so sure. We predict that a game of reservation-chicken will soon start between various parties. The one who gets the most percentage reserved, wins.

(*) Actually, as far as we are concerned, we fundamentally oppose quotas of any sort. Case closed.