Does anyone still believe the Government is going to collapse? In the past week, the left has moved from a total hardline stance to "we will wait till the IAEA meet" to "we will wait till the Government operationalizes the plan", whatever that means. Merely a couple of days ago the fall of the Government seemed inevitable. Today many people are singing different tunes.So what happened?
The leftists simply do not have the belly to go to a snap poll when the wounds from Singur and Nandigram are still so fresh. Meanwhile Prakash Karat is scouting around for new bases. A convenient scapegoat in the form of Ambassador Ronen Sen has been found.
There is no doubt in our minds that the left is in serious trouble. The next election might as well bury them forever. Let's try to understand what is happening. We love the phrase "narrowing of interests" which blogger RealityCheck uses so often.
What would you rather do, subscribe to the communist folklore and settle for a life of mediocrity (albeit one that promises fictitous equity) or believe in group incentives which just might help you beat the odds? How would your views change if you see kids around you beating the odds? Not all of them will beat the odds using group incentives but you might still want to hedge your bets.
Thus it is a no contest between the egalitarian premise and narrowing of interests. The left realizes this. It is not just about the OBC quotas in central institutes. Mayawati's rise means trouble for Congress which can only be averted by implementing private sector quotas for Dalits. Unfortunately Congress is in the OBC quota logjam at the moment, it is a big bite they can neither swallow nor spit out. Unless that one plays out fully, their hands are tied. Our reading is that Maya will beat Congress to making a strong proposal for private sector quotas. Her anti-retail moves are as much about hatred for the Ambanis (who are friends of SP) as they are about collecting future bargaining chips. She also realizes that in the era of narrowing interests people want their benefits here and now, not wait about half a decade for the success of a dubious Agro-reform plan (yeah, like we didn't have a zillion of them already!).
So, why did the left throw the gauntlet all of a sudden? It is a clear diversionary tactics. This muscle flexing was only meant to assure whatever support base they have left that they still matter and they are still powerful.
It appears that the West Bengal faction of the left is the first to blink. Apart from Singur and Nandigram fiascos, the state is long overdue for anti-incumbency.
The Government may yet fall, which is contingent on an entirely different group which has maintained strange silence through the whole thing as it did during the Haneef case. Was there a secret arrangement? Only time will tell.
3 comments:
Yes, the lefts' days are numbered.
I believe they lost their deposits everywhere in the largest state (UP). Why is that ? Their fate will be the same in TN as well - if they contest without help from the dravidian parties. UP and TN have already 'narrowed' the interests of the people along caste lines. There is simply no incentive to vote for forces that work for the whole. It is too much work and delivers disproportionately smaller benefits than the alternative.
Here is a simple recipe to cut them to size in Bengal.
*) Party 'X (say TMC)' rallies the muslims and promises them 20% exclusive quota in education and jobs. In a way, that would be just because of the pathetic condition of the muslims there, compared to say TN/KL.
I am amazed this has not happened yet in WB !
It(reservation) will not happen.Bengal is unique in not having an organised obc movement.
The Hindu Bhadralok have a visceral hatred for the congress,nehru-gandhis who ,bengalis believe,deprived them of their pre-eminent position,which they assumed was their natural right, because of their role in the freedom movement.
Bengalis have also been at the receiving end of what they see as congress interference in Darjeeling.
The Bengali dreamers also have pet grievances against leaders of upper india.
The Bengali bhadralok leadership,which lost the muslim jathedars to East Pakistan has swung to the other extreme,has no understanding of the modern world,live in fanatasy land.
The literary tradition of the bengali babu has secured them govt-clerical jobs for a long time.Also they were the first to switch over to management jobs,because of calcutta being a major commercial centre.
Secure in their citadel,still harbouring emotions from the independence struggle,unable to understand linguistic-casteist passions in other states,they were blind/deaf to the congress predicament then and the need for a BJP now.
I belive it will be only a matter of time before BJP breaches Bengal.There is no sons of the soil/linguistic ,ethnic,fanatic or a peasant obc lobby in bengal.The obcs of bengal are really backward.
The Bengali bhadralok/commie lobby which lectures to the rest of india ,stand united in refusing the sorcars/biswases even an iota of reservation.The Kulin brahmanas will not think of reservation in the CPM leadership.
Nobody denies the role of the bengali bhadralok in the creation of modern india.Even in dravidian TN ,the outstanding tamil poet kannadasan writes in glowing admiration of the bengali literati.
I think the time has come for the bengali middle class to stand up and distance themselves from these dreamers/jokers.It will happen sooner than most people think.
xyz,
Excellent points, as usual.
Still the Bengali muslims can ditch the CPM in favour of anyone who can promise quotas to Muslims.
After that every group would be forced to show their hands or risk being left out.
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