What is the worst that can happen?

Three ideas have firmly taken root in the collective consciousness of opinion makers and policy makers alike:

1. Pakistan is really multiple entities ("Civilian" Government, Military, ISI, Militants etc.)
   
2. There is no long term objective of the "enemy" - it is just "Death by thousand cuts"
3. Military adventure against Pakistan will be expensive - Nuclear deterrent
   

As you can see, this is exactly what Pakistan wants us and the world to believe. Take the first point for instance. Indian media hypnotizes itself into believing that Pakistan actually has a civil society and there is a true democratic Government, albeit one that is engaged in internal power struggle with the military, which in turn is trying hard to win over the militants.

We are expected to believe that. Just a couple of examples: President Zardari, who manages to invoke his dead beloved wife by the third sentence in any conversation is actually blocking investigations into the attack that killed Benazir. He also offered to hug American Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin in the most grotesque attempt at flirting by the head of a state within nine months of his wife's death. Zardari was also surprisingly eloquent about the alleged incursion by Indian air force. He actually made hand gestures to explain how the "technical incursion" had happened! Meanwhile, the oldest Bhutto kid is throwing parties at Oxford, at the expense of the British tax payer!

Well, that was just the first example. The second example of course is the sudden surge of nationalism within Taliban. Their leader Baitullah Mehsud has offered to help the army.

Pakistanis themselves do not believe in this lie. Strategic Analyst Ayesha Siddiqa has described the Pakistan military-industrial complex in a book widely read and discussed by our intellectuals.

The belief that there is really no long term strategic objective to this deadly game also belies empirical evidence. Pakistan has become increasingly brazen in its covert operations. They are also testing different types of targets. They have attacked a university, they attacked the Parliament, they attacked targets in the financial capital, they attacked army posts. They have also assisted bombing of cities of various sizes, trains and institutions.

What is Pakistan's objective?

On an NDTV show, a retired senior military officer had this tale to share. Apparently the militants wanted to take European hostages. So, the handler gave suitable instructions to the operatives. After capturing a few European nationals from Karachi, the operatives discovered that one of them was an Israeli. He was cracking up, one Israeli is like two Europeans, he thought! As soon as he conveyed the message to the handler, however, he got an earful. He was severely reprimanded and ordered to release the Israeli at the earliest.

Contrast this with the very deliberate targeting of a completely innocuous Jewish mission and the extreme brutality with which the occupants were treated. To put it in context, the Pakistani media started referring to this as a Hindu-Zionist conspiracy. What does that tell us? For one thing, these are carefully constructed and calculated sound bytes, just like "non-state" actors. One can not entirely rule out the work of a professional PR agency. The Pakistani foreign minister Qureshi's well composed and eloquently delivered speech just after the attacks ("yesterday it was us, today it's you, who knows who it will be tomorrow?") seems to be well rehearsed.

We believe that the military-industrial complex is addressing its own concerns. First, the complex derives a significant amount of revenues from India via smuggling, racketeering, human trafficking, drugs, counterfeit currencies. This is being strained because of rapid modernization of India and its middle-eastern partners. These linkages are becoming increasing transparent in an increasingly connected world. Second, India is about to make very dramatic divergence from Pakistan's military capability in the near future. For one thing, we are becoming increasingly sophisticated in terms of technical capability, for another we are naturally gravitating towards the capital global world.

The complex wants to put a stop to this paradigm change. They want to throw the region back into status quo so they can continue to maintain their hegemony, at the expense of poor Pakistani people and the people of the subcontinent at large.

A Unique Opportunity:

The Americans are Iraq-fatigued, plus they are soon going to have the most populist Government in decades. The world is in the middle of a dangerous financial crisis. Several European countries have experienced rioting and arson by minorities. Iceland had its first public protests in decades, Greece had riots. The world is in no mood for fighting. China is flexing its muscles like never before. China also has the South-East Asian economies in a vice like grip, many need Chinese cooperation to tide over the financial crisis.

Meanwhile Pakistani elite are partying like never before. In the last two decades, they have fine tuned the PR effort. Unhindered by norms of a democracy, Pakistani elite throw lavish parties and gifts for western diplomats and businesses. All these things matter. The world perceives Pakistan not by the cab drivers but the suave party animals, mostly the families of Pakistan elite who live in Europe for the most part. Pakistan has established deep business connections within Europe, India and middle-east.

Taking advantage of the overwhelming surge of global liberalism, Pakistan can easily make a few nuclear strikes against India and completely get away with it. Who will you punish after that? Bomb a few villagers? Think the international community will have the belly for a nuke retaliation? Forget the world, after a nuke strike by Pakistan, our ultra seculars will probably do candle light anti-war vigils in our capital (assuming some of it will still be standing after the attacks).

The Pakistani elite will escape to middle-east and Europe, their families already reside there. Arundhati Roy will write another column emphasizing the need to pick up our own debris. Only there will be a lot more debris to pick up. Sonia Gandhi will win the Nobel Peace Prize.

If you were a Pakistani elite, wouldn't you do the same?